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Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Bring in facts and opinions and present them just as that.
70 mph sustained winds, 990 mb, moving WNW 9 mph.
Just about time for Key West to start evacuating, IMO.
I had a feeling I wasn't the only one awake waiting for the 0500 advisory. Morning, y'all. It's going to be an interesting week for some of us. Those model tracks are giving me a sick feeling in my tummy.
There's a small trough north of the storm now. I think there is an outside chance this turkey can get pulled to the east of Florda now if the trend continues.
I had some stuff out on the clothesline drying out from a thunderstorm Friday night. I heard another storm coming in and tried briefly to get out to pull it down before it got drenched. Instead, I got drenched. So I'm wide awake now, no coffee required.
Saw your post immediately after I requested the last thread to be locked. Glad to hear you are settled into your new digs. Another conservative voice in Liberal Land is a good thing! Now...if we can just find a way for bad weather to stop following you...
That would follow the much maligned GFS run yesterday.
The good news is that Hispanola's and Cuba's land mass may well do a number on the convection...
At this point, this far out from a potential landfall, I look at the trends of the models. And for the last 24 hours, they have been trending more and more eastward. Until they stop doing that, I think it's wise to assume the forecast track (and the track the storm will take) will continue to shift eastward. Key West should really keep an eye out for this one - it could very well sneak up on them and give them little time to get out. And both sides of Florida - not just the Panhandle - need to watch as well.
The center jumped northward last night in response to the shear. It would be horrible for Haiti if it jumped again - but maybe another jump would take it into the mountains of SE Cuba, weaken it, and then send it up through the Bahamas.
Thank you for posting the link to this thread on the old one. I requested for that one to be locked.
it would also be nice to lay off the "Louisiana/New Orleans deserves it," "finish the place off," "you're stupid for living there" posts.
For the past several years, a few of us have observed that virtually all GOM storms end up making landfall further east than originally forecasted.
I have a feeling this storm will share the misery with others. Jeanne killed thousands in Haiti as a tropical storm, and this could well do the same - they have steep moutainsides with no forest cover. Prime setup for bad mudslides.
Hurricane Ernesto - Weather Channel.
Thanks for the ping, NN!!
I live in Mobile, AL, and, if I'm understanding the latest trends in the projections, this just got personal.
(I moved here after the storms last year - from Albuquerque! - so it begins to look like I'm going from observer to participant.)
Thanks for these threads - I'm sure they'll be as informative and helpful as they were last year...
Unk Ike
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