[NautiNurse]

For the past several years, a few of us have observed that virtually all GOM storms end up making landfall further east than originally forecasted.

[dirtboy]

The five-day forecast track shows an interesting model trend setting up:

Note the sharp jog to the NE. Let's hope that happens sooner rather than later.

If the center can shift another 50 miles north like it did yesterday, it might not even make it into the Gulf. Best case would be for it to be a Cat 1/Cat 2 through the Bahamas after getting chewed up a bit over Cuba - that's nothing for the Bahamas - even a Cat 3 barely phases them because they're used to it.

[realpatriot]

With one VERY notable exception.

This time last year, the tracks consistantly moved Katrina westward with each run. Unfortunately for us.

[Prodn2000]

I have never seen a season with such pronounced upper-level lows in the Atlantic Basin. I think once the low that is stearing Ernesto moves off into Mexico, it will be anyone's guess where this thing goes.