[bobdsmith]

I think you can make longer term predictions of large scale events than small and specific events. For example I can confidentally predict it will get colder by december, but I have no idea whether this New York will be hotter or colder next Wednesday than it is today.

[twin2]

Well yesterday I thought we were free and clear and today, well, we're in the cone.

I am off to church and then Publix to stock up on water and ice. My bad, I've drank my entire hurricane supply of water over the summer.

I am worried because the roof is still not repaired since Wilma last year. The rolladin shutters are strong but that wind could get into the weak points of the roof and lift it off.

I will report the chaos (or lack of) when I return. I am in Miami by the way.

[LeGrande]

I think you can make longer term predictions of large scale events than small and specific events. For example I can confidentally predict it will get colder by december, but I have no idea whether this New York will be hotter or colder next Wednesday than it is today.

So you can confidently predict whether New York will be hotter or colder than "normal" this December? Want to place a little wager?

[AFPhys]

I think you can make longer term predictions of large scale events than small and specific events. For example I can confidentally predict it will get colder by december, but I have no idea whether this New York will be hotter or colder next Wednesday than it is today.

Let me keep this question(s) simple:

Can you confidently predict it will be warmer or colder THIS December than it was last December? How about the December after that? Do you depend on Old Farmer's Almanac to decide when to schedule your family reunions?