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Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I was cooking some breakfast and watching Fox News. The stupid twits on Fox and Friends still had the graphic for yesterday's forecast track. And they mentioned it going right over Jamaica, even though the current track takes the storm to the north of Jamaica.
Good morning, all.
Eeesh--this is bringing back memories of Hurricane Charley projections (Ivan too).
To be fair there were no NHC tracks actually over New Orleans - more like "in the general direction of heading for the central Gulf coast" - the 5AM advisory today is the first one with an actual US landfall.
The center of the track had Ernesto going right where Katrina had gone. Which would probably swamp the levees again.
Yeah, it seems to have a very similar projected path of Charley, so "WATCH OUT CHARLOTTE COUNTY."
I never will forget the look on Steve Jervee's face when he realized it was turning inland instead of heading up the coast.
"Eeesh--this is bringing back memories of Hurricane Charley..."
If you are within the 2-day cone of uncertainty, you pretty much have to act like the storm is gonna come right at you.
We were staring at the tv, watching every blip on the radar..."OMG!--did it make a turn?!?" Next blip..."YES!"...we were jumping around and cheering when it made that turn. Steve Jerve was a bit bug eyed when it happened too.
Uh oh (from Central Florida). Guess I'd better start paying attention.
sw
Thanks for the great links,NautiNurse! :-)
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 27, 2006
...Ernesto...now a hurricane...approaching the southwest peninsula
of Haiti...heavy rains and flooding possible over much of
Hispaniola...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti
from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the
southwestern tip of Haiti. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti
border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area...in this case
within the next 12 to 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Las
Tunas...Granma...Holguin...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo in
eastern Cuba. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A
Hurricane Warning is recommended for the Cuban provinces of Granma
and Santiago de Cuba.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida
Keys later today.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...the Florida Keys...
and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 17.3 north...longitude 73.4 west or about 115
miles...180 km...southwest of Port au Prince Haiti and about
210 miles...340 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and a northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during
the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ernesto is
expected to pass very near southwestern tip of Haiti this afternoon
or early evening ...and be near the southeastern coast of Cuba
Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Ernesto could become a category 2 hurricane before it
reaches the coast of Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
from the center.
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica
and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti as the center of Ernesto
approaches.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican
Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches...are expected across portions
of Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
Repeating the 800 am EDT position...17.3 N...73.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75
mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
This time last year, the tracks consistantly moved Katrina westward with each run. Unfortunately for us.
In my book, that is a very good thing!
Don't forget to whack any pine seedlilngs that spring up and be happy.
Good morning. It is going to be a busy day!
Is it my imagination or is it tracking more east...ie..towards US!
susie
I also have a niece who just arrived in NO to go to college (not where I would send my child personally). I do hope Ernesto just fizzles somewhere or brings needed rain to Austin TX!
susie
1. Fall apart over Haiti
2. Move more N/NE towards the Bahamas.
I can't see a center of circulation either. I think the NHC is being very generous with the sustained winds.
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