This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
Locked on 08/28/2006 8:32:09 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator, reason:
New Thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1691291/posts |
Posted on 08/27/2006 1:39:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Caribbean Sea
Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I should also add that you might look into "personal fans" that you can hang around your neck. We've used them and they've made a difference in August heat. I don't have a photo, but I do know that Walmart carries them.
Good luck!
I sure hope you are right, but Cuba is not really known as a destroyer of storms. Many have spent considerable time over Cuba, only to quickly resume intensity over the hot water of the gulf. I will hope that Ernesto will somehow travel the entire length of Cuba, from east to west. That might do it.
Got those last year, and also the fans. We were without power for 12 days after Wilma. This will be our 3rd hurricane season in S. FL. I miss Texas.... ;) susie
There are moutains in far SE Cuba that go up to 6,500 feet. That probably wouldn't destroy Ernesto, but would definitely put a damper on him. And if it tracks just a bit further north and east now, that would hopefully keep it out of the Gulf.
The waters between Jamaica and Cuba have the highest hurricane heat potential in the Caribbean. Let's hope it doesn't track through there.
So you can confidently predict whether New York will be hotter or colder than "normal" this December? Want to place a little wager?
They will tell you that long term climatic trends are easier to forecast than short term weather. 'Course, they don't mention that it's not possible to demonstrate such a thing.
Wow, what a huge shift east from yesterday.
I didnt expect that.
Good luck to those Floridians now in the predicted path.
Hey, stop wishing that thing on to us...I'm thinking I may be getting my plywood out tomorrow if it trends east even a little more.
Let me keep this question(s) simple:
Can you confidently predict it will be warmer or colder THIS December than it was last December? How about the December after that? Do you depend on Old Farmer's Almanac to decide when to schedule your family reunions?
Folks should also prepare for the chance of tornados. We will be going through our "drill" with the family today.
I'm wishing it even further east, into the Bahamas.
I can confidentally predict that the average temperature of New York this December will be colder than the temperature of New York today. Yet I cannot make such a confident prediction of whether it will be hotter or colder in New York in 3 days time.
No but I can confidentally predict it will be colder this december than it is today. But shorter term forcasts of a few days I am not so confident at.
Welcome to Mobile Ike ('I Like Ike'), I live down in the Fowl River area on the way to Dauphin Island. I'm always on the hurricane threads too... although it looks like this one will miss us.
The last two years I've felt like a 'pin' at the end of a bowling alley around here...sometimes a strike and sometimes a spare, lol.
Latest forecast shows a direct hit on Tampa, Florida
LARGE errors are possible this far out.
See graphics here
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=ST&f=15&t=104351&st=980
Latest weather updates on this system can also be there. A lot of freepers used that site last year to get information.
Graphics there shows the potential impact on Tampa IF Ernesto can survive Cuba and stays on the forecast path.
The storm was supposed to hit Louisiana according to yesterdays forecast SO you can see the big changes. More changes are likely.
I do too...I'm way out in the boonies and don't have a choice.
Nwctwx, check out the latest visible - does it seem the center has shifted a bit to the north again, almost to the coast of Hait?
The GOOD news this morning is that Ernesto is likely to remain over Cuba for a longer period of time. Let's all hope this trend continues. Still a LONG way to go before we have impact on the United States. Any forecast beyond day 2 will likely change and could change dramatically. Something to keep in mind when you see your city in the bullseye (Tampa for example).
Then can you predict whether or not it will be colder or hotter than today next year? Is that a sufficiently long forecast for you?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.