Well, I'm off to bed. 'Night, folks.
Posted on 08/22/2006 5:55:48 AM PDT by teddyballgame
And just as I reported earlier today on the problems with the Gallup poll and other surveys showing a bias for Democrats, the Gallup poll suddenly reports a dramatic drop in the Democrat lead in the US House race to only two points.
In a poll taken over the weekend, the poll of registered voters shows that Democrats now lead only 47%-45% which is down from a nine percentage point lead earlier in August. This is well within the poll's margin of error (+-4%) so the race is essentially even. It is the best showing for Republicans in this poll since just before the 2004 November election when Democrats were ahead by four points among registered voters, but Republicans still won the popular U.S. vote and a 232-203 lead in House seats.
According to the poll, the sudden focus on the war on terror has greatly helped the GOP. The poll states that "President Bush's approval rating has topped 40% for the first time since February...Behind the movements: In the wake of the terror plot that British authorities say they broke up, Bush seems to have gotten a boost. Some of that may have reflected positively on Republican candidates as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
I've downgraded the Fitzpatrick seat in part because I think the odds are somewhat reduced that there will be a Dem "wave" on Election Day and in part because Fitzpatrick & Murphy have held there first debate.
On the first point, both WA-08 and PA-08 were bumped up a bit in my estimation due to freshmen representatives in swing districts tending to be highly vulnerable to past wave elections. On the second point, in the articles I've read on the debate Murphy strikes me as somewhat 'amateur' and vague in his answers while Fitzpatrick is very aggresively distancing himself from GWB, and from the Iraq War in particular.
And? Did you watch it or read about it, or what?
Perhaps no more toxic than Kolbe's liberal views were to Conservatives. ;-)
As I said, Graf can afford to run a "take me as I am" campaign. If he fails, might turn out the other GOP candidates might not have done any better. If Giffords wins, she may just be another Karan English fluke. I'm not going to worry too much. ;-)
You might worry that Giffords might become the next Moore. :)
do we have any polls on the clay shaw seat?
If I'm not mistaken the raw aggregates need to be somewhere in the >=59% for the Dems to be able to take the house...
Anything close in raw polling generally favors the GOP due to the high concentration of liberals in the large cities and the Gerrymanding that ran rampant in the 70s and 80s.
This is just random notes from the back of my brain, someone more in touch with the science of elections can feel free to correct me.
There are no recent polls to my knowledge in the PA-08 or the FL-22 elections.
Well, I'm off to bed. 'Night, folks.
those would be interesting to know. what about the IN-09 seat, Shays seat, or the PA Weldon seat?
I read a few articles and blog remarks about their first debate. I didn't actually hear it myself. They basically agreed on no drilling in ANWR, and they sparred over whether they'd support a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran (Fitzpatrick - Yes; Murphy - No) and about whether Fitzpatrick is getting some veterans cemetary built fast enough.. They also sniped at one another over the anti-pedophile MySpace bill Fitzpatrick has introduced (Murphy says it doesn't go far enough) and over whether Murphy is a 'carpetbagger' to the district.
But I take it you gathered it helped the incumbent, since you mentioned it in your downgrade, no?
Nope. I haven't seen IN-09, CT-04, or PA-07 polled either.
off topic, but I think you could make a case now that PA Senate race should move from Likely to Lean in your rankings.
PA-07 in particular I would love to see a poll
That is my overall impression of the debate. To be sure, I do not think it's a knock-out on the part of Fitzpatrick, by any stretch, but it seems to me that Fitzpatrick talked about he's done or is doing for the district while Murphy is saying it's not fast enough and mainly running against Bush. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick is distancing himself from Bush on just about every hot-button issue except stem cell research.
Yep, I've already moved Santorum from Likely to Lean. His support level is still abysmal (Santorum hasn't polled above 42%) but the margin has definitely narrowed, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now, for what little that's worth.
Well, "abysmal" might be too strong a word. Let's go with "pathetic" instead..
That logic makes sense to me.
Also the Hotline poll out today (Cong. numbers even) saying gives a little more credence to the earlier Gallup assertion (which I have been assuming previous is just an outlier).
Did not see the PA-08 debate, but I take your word on it.
The thing with Santorum-Casey that is kinda unknown is how Casey will play once he gets in debates. According to most polls, there are still roughly 20%-25% of the voters who don't know him well enough to give an opinion of him and that may decide his (and Santorum's) fate.
I will admit that Santorum has been using his time and money effectively this summer, whereas Casey has not, and we're seeing the shift from this in the polls of late, imo. Still a high mountain for Santorum to climb, overall.
"Here’s my advice: Don’t get carried away. The changes in both races are, so far, superficial. The fundamentals basically remain unchanged."
Ya, I saw that. I believe it more true about Penn than Virginia, unless in debates Casey proves to be ineffective, and Santorum savages him. In Virginia, we will have to wait and see whether Allen gets his stride again, and whether the Dems start pumping money in, and whether Webb flaws emerge.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.