Posted on 08/16/2006 1:53:05 PM PDT by jveritas
Through out the Arab Israeli wars people always set the high expectations that Israel is going to crush its Arabs enemies in matter of weeks if not days as in the case of the June 1967 war, where Israel destroyed the Egyptian, Syrian, and Jordanian armies combined in a span of six days and occupied lands that were twice its size.
In this last war with Hizballah terrorist militia, Israel did not show the world what they used to see before in Israel traditional wars, never the less Israel won this war, but without the public glow of the previous wars, or at least that of the 1967 war. Many political and military analysts in the West jumped to the conclusion that Israel did not win because they were not able to totally eliminate Hizballah, but those analysts failed to recognize that Israel main goal was not the total annihilation of Hizballah, but rather dealing them a very severe blow in South Lebanon and change the dynamic of Southern Lebanon toward Israel favor. From practical point of view, the total annihilation of Hizballah is not feasible because its members can simply abandon their arms and merge back into the population. The type of war that the IDF fought is not a traditional one, where the armies of the enemies are massing in the wide desert of Sinai or on the open area of Golan Heights, and where it is easier for air superiority and swift tanks operations to win the day for Israel, but rather this is a war where the enemy is using civilian population as human shields, hiding in well sophisticated tunnels, operating in small groups of 5, 10, or 20 maximum, which makes it a longer task for the IDF because they have to go and chase the enemy where they hide plus the worry of death to the civilian population where the enemy is sheltering.
So how did Israel win this war?
One needs to make a comparison before July 12th when the war started and where the situation is right now to conclude that Israel have won this war. Before July 12th Hizballah has an absolute control the Southern part of Lebanon extending from the Litani river to the Lebanese-Israeli borders. Hizballah had 1500 to 2000 hard core well trained fighters (terrorists) in this area, with huge amount of light and medium weapons, as well a huge storage of short range Katiucha rockets, and those powerful anti-tanks rockets. From May 2000 when Israel withdrew from Lebanon until July 2006, Hizballah with the help of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards built hundreds of sophisticated undergorund tunnels to be used for defensive and offensive operations, tunnels equipped with highly advanced communications equipments, night visions gears, and storage weapons facilities for different types of weapons. In a month of fighting from July 12th to August 14th, Israel killed approximately 600 Hizballah fighters and injured a similar number. The extremely high casualties among Hizballah fighters is from a force that number around 2000, from military point of view that is the closet thing to annihilation. All Hizballah military infrastructures in Southern Lebanon and South of Beirut (AL Dahiyeh) had been badly damaged and many were totally destroyed. Israel was able to take out at least half of Hizballah katucha missiles and launchers, much higher percentage from their longer range missiles and its launchers. Israel destroyed a lot of Hizballah ammunition depots and confiscated a lot of Hizballah weapons that they abandoned in the battlefields. Israel forced Hizballah leadership to go into hiding in bunkers, and they are still hiding even now after days from the cease fire, and Israel killed a good numbers of Hizballah military commanders, the last one was the commander of Hizballah Special Forces who was killed very shortly before the cease fire started on August 14. In regards to Israel losses, they lost 120 soldiers in a month of fighting, this is the least number of Israeli soldiers killed in any major war that Israel had fought. In fact they lost over 1000 soldiers in 1967 war, over 3000 in 1973 war, and over 700 soldiers in 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
But from the military point of view the worst of all defeats for Hizballah, and that analysts are not taking it considerations, is that Hizballah claimed that Israel cannot enter one inch in Lebanese territories and that they “The Resistance” will destroy the Israeli army at the blue line, that claim was totally destroyed. Israel occupied large part of Southern Lebanon from the the borders all the way to the Litani river, and they did most of the occupation in the last 36 hours of the war. Hizballah main claim that they will not disarm is because Israel occupies the Sheba farms which is a disputed piece of land that may rather belong to Syria and not Lebanon, and Hizballah vowed to keep their arms until they “liberate” Sheba farms. But now after this war, Israel has many more land in Lebanon than the Sheba farms. In other word, Israel can occupy Lebanon anytime they want despite all the rhetoric of Hizballah that they can prevent them from doing so. In fact after the recent occupation by Israel to Southern Lebanon, Hizballah wanted to save face and they claimed that their strategy was not to prevent Israel from occupying land, but rather to let them in and then start resisting them inside and kill them!
On the political front, and despite all the loop holes of UN resolution 1701, it is still a major defeat for Hizballah, and that why they accepted when the war was going on and then they refused it when the cease fire started because it goes against them. In UN resolution 1701 there will be 30000 Lebanese and International troops to take control from the Litani River down to the borders with Israel and this area should be free of Hizballah armed presence. Hizballah never dreamed that he will not be the only armed force controlling the area South of the Litani river, but now they have at a minimum to share it with 30000 others troops, and that there military activity will be much more restricted and much more clandestine no matter what. But a much worse scenario for Hizballah will be that they be forced in one way or another to leave to the North of the Litani river.
On the “Propaganda” front, Hizballah achieved a “victory” but as all propaganda victories, they are short lived, and get demolished when reality set in. What aggravated this Hizballah delusional propaganda victory are the many military and political analysts together with some Israeli politicians who made the wrong assumptions on what Israel goals were in this war, misunderstood the nature of the war, and compare it wrongly to Israel other traditional wars, and that the facts that Israel did not totally annihilate Hizballah, then Israel did not win, or worse they assumed that Israel was defeated because it did not achieve “the impossible” military goals that those analysts and politicians set for Israel. Of course, the Arab media, Syria, Iran, and definitely Hizballah were going to claim victory no matter what were the results. In 1967 war, the most crushing defeat for the Arabs, the Arabs leaders and their media were claiming that they are surrounding Tel Aviv up to the last second of the war, when they finally woke up to their horrible defeat. In the Yom Kippor war of October 1973, Egypt and Syria were able to make some advancement in the beginning of the war, when they kind of surprised the Israeli forces in Sinai and Golan heights, but later in the war, Israel was able to re-group, crushed the Arab armies, and indeed occupied even more land than in 1967. Still both Egypt and Syria consider this 1973 war as a great victory for them, they call it the war of where “The Myth of the Invincible Israeli Army was Destroyed”, and they make October 7th as a national holidays in their countries. Arabs concepts of victory and defeat is totally different from that the world, unless you totally annihilate them, whoever left standing will claim victory. We have seen it in al their wars with Israel and we have seen it with Saddam Hussein after the 1991 Gulf war.
The saddest part in this war, is that the biggest loser was Lebanon and the Lebanese people. In one month of war Lebanon lost 3 billions dollars in infrastructure, and another 7 billions dollars in economy, where the whole summer tourism season is gone. Lebanon has 21 billions dollars annual GDP so a loss of 10 billions dollars is almost 50% of this GDP, it is an economic disaster beyond belief. There are over 12000 homes destroyed in Lebanon, 75 bridges, power stations, and over 800,000 refugees living in miserable conditions. Still the worst thing, is the death of hundred of Lebanese civilians who were use Hizballah terrorists as human shields and the dozens of Israeli civilians killed by Hizballah Katiucha whose only real value is that of terror.
The war with Israel is now over at least for a very long time, despite all the rhetoric and the false propaganda and the knee jerk reactions, Israel dealt a very severe military blow to Hizballah and was able to change the status-co on their Northern borders greatly to their favor by the having Hizballah much less in control of the South of Lebanon a very different situation from when the war started on July 12th.
The greatest fear now is what is going to happen inside Lebanon. Will the Lebanese government and other Lebanese factions take advantage of a greatly weakened Hizballah whose fighting force is very badly damaged and whose leadership is hiding in bunkers to put more pressure on Hizballah to fully disarm and renounce terrorism, or will they subdue to fear and get affected with a fake propaganda win for Hizballah and do not do anything to Hizballah for fear of a civil war or fear that they themselves will be killed by the terror militia. Time will tell, but unfortunately the latter looks more probable.
Making the decision and taking the initiative are almost always a major advantage in battle; even a wrong decision, properly executed according to a good primary or contingent plan, can achieve great success. Israel could have done that, but failed to act decisively, and surrendered the initiative to its adversary.
And they executed their contingency plan with surprising, shocking, efficiency, deploying two weapons that Israel could not answer effectively. First was a type of antitank weapon that should not have been there, according to international agreements. That it was in fact present is a clear indication of the reliability of such agreements and understandings. The second weapon was the speed and skill of the propagandists, who coopted the world press with a snap of their fingers and successfully directed it against Israel, broadside and full-bore.
But the second weapon does not work unless used according to a specific tactical deployment, which Hezbollah has mastered and Israel cannot counter. Hezbollah war crimes are continuous and blatant, not even barely concealed - they hide behind civilians, and dare Israel to provide them with ever more victims to parade before the compliant press. The deliberate execution of this tactic has been documented many times. Corpse recycling and ambulance parades are perhaps the most egregious examples, but the press response to these is even more revealing.
And Olmert responds by dithering, the worst POSSIBLE response. But it's what happens when you elect a jellyfish to do a man's job....
I cannot understand why the US, Israel, Britain, and other nations that value freedom (forget the French and the sissy nations of Europe), and are willing to fight terrorists with manly vigor, do not come to the same conclusion. And I cannot understand why the Arab Sunni nations are not willing to prevent Syria from furthering Iran's agenda in the Middle East. If the US is to succeed in Iraq, it must stop Assad. If the Israelis are to every have peace, they must stop Assad. If the Lebanese are to ever be free, they must stop Assad. Assad is the linchpin of terror.
My greatest fear is that Hizballah can take over Lebanon, not because they are that strong, indeed they are much weaker now than before Jul 12 th as I said in the original post, but because of the weakness and fear Lebanese of the Lebanese government. Also it is very possible that if the other Lebanese factions think that the government cannot or not willing to protect them from Hizballah, then they will arm to defend themselves, and Lebanon will be back to a terrible civil war.
Great post and funny one as well :)
CHAPTER ELEVEN The Secret of Victory
by
George S. Patton, Jr.
....................................
( On false analysis)
Due either to super-abundant egotism and uncontrolled enthusiasm or else to limited powers of observation of the activities of other arms, these people advocate in the most fluent and uncompromising manner the vast FUTURE potentialities of their own weapon. In the next war, so they say, all of the enemy will be crushed, gassed, bombed, or otherwise speedily exterminated, depending for the method of his death upon whether the person declaiming belongs to the tank, gas, air, or other special service.
Due to the (unfortunate) fact that many of them possess considerable histrionic ability and much verbosity, they attract public attention. The appeal of their statements is further strengthened because, in the first place, they deal invariably in mechanical devices which intrigue the simple imagination. In the next place the novelty of their schemes and assertions has a strong news interest which insures their notice by the press. This last fact is of peculiar advantage to the present crop of specialists because in the last war the maximum press activity was on the western front. Here the preliminary cavalry activities had ended before the shock of the world cataclysm had been sufficiently dissipated to permit detailed accounts, while due to necessary restrictions, correspondents could not witness infantry fights in detail and therefore filled their articles with accounts of the noisy or noisome activities of the special arms whose preliminary activities they could see and whose novelty assured public interest.
...............................................................................................................................................................................................................
The fixed determination to acquire the warrior soul, and have acquired it to either conquer or perish with honor, is the SECRET OF VICTORY.
G. S. Patton, Jr., Major
March 26, 1926
According to Patton Israel lost. Hezbollah won, for it is they who decided to conquer or perish with their own definition of honor, twisted as it may be. Israel failed because for the first time in its history, it abandoned the strength of its people, to conquer or perish. To say Israel won is to weaken them further.
Israel Lost According to Caroline Glick,JERUSALEM POST ^ | Aug. 13, 2006 | Her analysis is undeniable.
[http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1682688/posts?page=89#89]
The last thing we need is not to look at the truth, and run hoping that Victory is ours so powerfully that we grasp everywhere to cobble together one.
Israel Lost. Get over it. Time to move on.
America must prepoare to fight Iran, and if it does not, we also will fail in dedicating ourselves to conquer or perish, as is necessary for Victory in War.
Thanks.
In this case NO, but I am addressing the current war.
I look for a strike at the Iranian/Syrian head before too long.
Do I have any reason for this prediction. Nope. Just common sense tells me there is a LOT more to this than meets the eye.
The best thing for israel in all of this is everyone can see what happens to a country which elects a liberal lawyer
Let everyone think hezbollah has won the war. The Hezbolla fingers will wither and die once the heads are decapitated
No blue tarps for Lebanon. All the houses will be rebuilt in a few weeks. New roads, new power supply, new infrastructure.
Anyone can say they won and define it any way they wish. Too bad our elites don't have a clue!
thank you again for all you do.
Excellent analysis. When one looks at the objective reality before and after the war, it is hard to make the case that Hezbollah was the winner. Israel is not returning to the status quo ante and more resolutions are on the way.
I think we both agree that the fruits of victory (or defeat) have yet to be distributed from this war.
Well said. I wish someone would explain to me how the hezbos are better off today than they were a month ago.
Well Done.
In agreement
BTTT
"Old rule: if the insurgent doesn't lose, he wins.
In a few months, they will be rearmed, replenished and rarin' to go.
And Israel?"
Currently allowing the UN to botch the ceasefire with the Hezbos, literally as we speak.
Meanwhile the World MSM has declared the REAL combatants: Syria and Iran (big winners in the MS Press).
Many political and military analysts in the West jumped to the conclusion that Israel did not win because they were not able to totally eliminate Hizballah, but those analysts failed to recognize that Israel main goal was not the total annihilation of Hizballah, but rather dealing them a very severe blow in South Lebanon and change the dynamic of Southern Lebanon toward Israel favor.
Israel loudly proclaimed to the world that eliminating/crushing/disarming the Hezzies was its goal. Even if this wasn't the real goal, Israel suffered a tremendous PR loss on this score.
The losses suffered by the Hezzies, both in absolute and relative terms, were indeed much heavier than Israel suffered, and by a large degree as you've stated. However, this is more of a tactical victory than a strategic one. This is because the Israelis are going to leave S. Lebanon soon, and no one else will be around that has the capability and the inclination to disarm the Hezzies - or to prevent them from re-arming with Syrian and Iranian weapons. So, IMHO, Israel has taken a great tactical victory and thrown it away (unless, of course, the ceasefire breaks down and Israel completes the job it started).
I'd agree that the Hezzies suffered a bit of a propaganda defeat by not being able to stop Israel at the border, but the fact that they can claim to have fought the IDF to a standstill for a month (and have that claim believed by their target audience, ignorant and easily swayed young extremist males) is a massive victory which outweighs the failure to keep Israel out of Lebanon completely.
Israel also failed to get its two kidnapped soldiers back - which is another image/propaganda disaster (to say nothing of how those guys or their families feel about it).
Sure, Israel accomplished a few things, including a very substantial degradation of the Hezzies' forces. But it also failed to get its people back and to deal a deathblow to an implacable enemy - a blow which it could have easily delivered. Further, Iran and (more to the point) Syria were not punished in any way for supplying weapons to the Hezzies...which means that they will continue to do the same thing without any hesitation or fear. A destroyed Syrian Air Force, a largely destroyed Syrian Army and Damascus in ruins would have elicited yawns from the rest of the world, yet would have greatly enhanced Israel's "Don't phuck with us, EVER" deterrence.
Applying Patton's analysis to this situation can only result in a wrong conclusion. Patton was not addressing a guerilla war
Like Vietnam? We win every battle, but lost Uncle Walter and lost the war. And now Iraq is compared to it. Sorry dealing Hezzbollah a serious blow is not defeating them. We delt Nazi's and Japanese serious blows in battles, but they did not give up. Israel lost this round and humiliatingly so to the point that Hezzbollah is now refueling for round 2 and if Olmert is still in power, they'll get theie noses bloodied again and further humiliated to embolden all the Arabs to crush Israel once and for all!
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