Carlos Fuentes, Mexican Novelist: Catholicism was a factor driving voters to Calderon (Translation)

El Mercurio Newspaper (Chile) ^ | July 5, 2006 | Nathan Gardels (translated by self)

[StJacques]

According to the author, religion unites the country and the PAN representative appeared as the Catholic candidate.

Renowned Mexican author Carlos Fuentes is not surprised by the close result in last Sunday's elections, since he asserts that it is a product of a tendency that occurs throughout the world; that politicians are drawn the center.

In an interview given the day after the presidential election, the writer indicated that, though the country is divided, for the great majority the decisive factor was religion.

--What does it mean for Mexico that Felipe Calderón, the candidate of the right, wins the election (the result is not yet official) against leftist Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador by a very narrow margin?

"It means that the fear campaign against Lopez -- that he would take Mexico backwards -- worked. It means that President (Vicente) Fox is still popular in Mexico. That he was not a dead weight on Calderón. It means that Calderón has for now been seduced by the most right wing faction of his own party."

"Whoever wins this election, is going to have to move towards the center-left or center-right. Mexico is a normal democracy in which, like everywhere else, all politicians are pushed towards the center. Calderón's challenge now is that he must convince the half of the country, that voted against him, to let him govern."

--Why is the country so divided?

"During the 71 years prior to Fox, the PRI (Institutional Revolucionary Party) governed Mexico. The dark nature of its power, its revolutionary rhetoric, its heavy-handed imposition of political unity, hid Mexican reality. After which, during Fox's years, it has disappeared off the scene as a force, the country can show its true face: half of the country is on the left, the other half is on the right."

--Lopez Obrador wanted to do away with the NAFTA dispositions on corn and beans to help farmers and he wanted to renegotiate other areas of the treaty. Was this election a referendum on NAFTA and globalization?"

"Not at all. International issues were completely absent in this election. Lopez Obrador never mentioned the United States, Hugo Chávez or Brazilian President Lula. Calderón did not do so either. It was a purely internal election."

"The election was completely about the path the country should take in the future, on its direction. Although the country is deeply divided it did nothing more than choose to remain on the same path which Fox established."

"Catholicism was an incredibly important factor that impelled Calderón - since PAN (National Action Party) is a Catholic party - towards the edge of victory. Its victory is a triumph of the Virgin of Guadalupe, the patron of Mexico. She is the only certain reality in Mexico. She is everything in which people really believe."

"The Virgin transfers the social scales. The poorest Mexicans, Lopez Obrador's natural voters, trust in nothing more than in the Virgin. When Calderón presented himself as the Catholic candidate, he won. In California, 57% of Mexican immigrants voted for the Catholic Calderón."

--Will Lopez Obrador respect the election results?

"I believe that yes, he will. I have spoken with many people near him and they have convinced me that yes, he will. They are sad, but they accept the results."

--Is there some global lesson here? All the democracies (the U.S.A., Italy, Germany) are closely are divided in every national election. Why?"

"Ever since the end of the Cold War, the Soviet ghost no longer hangs over national elections, facilitating the formation of large majorities, the elections in all the democracies have been become more and more close. This means that people take into account other factors in their lives, like the quality of life, economic inequality, religion, the personality of leaders."

"Simple majorities or pluralities will incline at some moments a little towards the left or a little towards the right. In countries where the left wins, as for example Great Britain, the other half that did not vote for them pushes them towards conservatism."

"In reality, we know that we have seen the end of an ideology, when we see that this also happens in Mexico. It is pure politics."

"The Virgin of Guadalupe transfers the social scales. The poorest Mexicans, natural voters of Lopez Obrador, trust in nothing more than in the Virgin."

[StJacques]

Even though Fuentes presents himself as an outsider not affiliated with any political party in Mexico, I get the feeling he tends a little to the left. In spite of this I am putting up a translation of the interview, which is from a Chilean newspaper, for two reasons:

One is that Fuentes appears to be convinced that Calderón did win the election, which is the first statement I have seen by anyone who might be associated with Lopez Obrador's followers -- Fuentes mentions that he has spoken with several people close to Lopez Obrador -- that suggests a recognition of defeat and Fuentes also asserts that the PRD will accept the official election result, something that I am watching closely, because I am not all convinced that is the case.

The second reason I have translated this interview and posted it is that I think it makes clear that the left in Mexico still sees the Catholic Church as the enemy of social progress in their country. For those of you who may not know it, some of the very worst of the Mexican Revolution involved the repression of the Catholic Church and it makes me wonder what Lopez Obrador and his followers might do if they grabbed power in this election. Many of you may remember that the Sandinistas in Nicaragua also initiated a repression of the Catholic Church in their country, which I believe contributed significantly to their eventual defeat, since the supporters of Liberation Theology -- who liked the Sandinistas -- were never a controlling voice within the Catholic Church in that country.

When I read Carlos Fuentes' words about poor Mexicans trusting in the Virgin of Guadalupe more than anything else, I see a touch of arrogance and disdain for the religiosity of the poor that poses dangers for Mexico if the situation unravels there. No matter where they are, the Left just cannot come to grips with that most basic human need to express faith.

[StJacques]

Thought you might like to see this.

[wideawake]

Hmmm . . . apparently the only person Fuentes hates and fears more than Jesus is His mother.

Fascinating.

[NYer]

"The Virgin of Guadalupe transfers the social scales. The poorest Mexicans, natural voters of Lopez Obrador, trust in nothing more than in the Virgin."

Catholic Ping - Please freepmail me if you want on/off this list

[TommyDale]

I'm waiting for the ACLU to go down to Mexico and try to file a lawsuit for "separation of church and state". LOL!

[Clemenza]

Carlos Fuentes spent a considerable portion of his youth in the suburbs of DC. His father was Mexican ambassador to either Roosevelt or Truman.

[ArrogantBustard]

the left in Mexico still sees the Catholic Church as the enemy of social progress in their country.

In so far as that "Social Progress" is a code word for Marxism, being seen as an enemy of such should be considered a badge of honour.

[CBLJN]

"...Lopez Obrador's natural voters, trust in nothing more than in the Virgin...."

---

What about Jesus?

[CedarDave]

One is that Fuentes appears to be convinced that Calderón did win the election, which is the first statement I have seen by anyone who might be associated with Lopez Obrador's followers...

That may not be the case, unfortunately.

MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.

Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.

Lopez Obrador leading Calderon in Mexican Vote Recount

Also...

...the Mexican newspaper El Universal is reporting that ObraGore leads 37.01%-34.53% with 62.61% in.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1660852/posts?page=11#11

[netmilsmom]

His mother said to the servants, “Do whatever he tells you.”
John 2:5

[StJacques]

Dave, those results only reflect the order in which the official reports filed containing votes from individual vote reports from districts (actual Spanish term is casillas or "squares") have been tallied in the "certified" count, the one we heard this Sunday was the "preliminary" count. The thing you look for in those numbers is evidence of a turnaround from the preliminary count in Lopez Obrador's favor. I did read that there have been some small alterations, but nothing significant, and I was on the El Universal site this morning.

Let me go and find the current report on El Universal I can use to give you translated excerpts that will clear this up. Back in a second.

[CedarDave]

Here is the link I found:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360305.html

With 69.01% of the recount in, López Obrador 36.81%; Felipe Calderón 34.64%. Not looking good. Earlier I read there were something like 700,000+ annulled votes. These must now being counted.

[StJacques]

Ok Dave, this is translated from:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/360296.html

I'll put up the whole translation here (in bold print):

"As of 4:29 p.m. Lopez Obrador has 36.91% of the votes; Felipe Calderón 34.6%. They do not show any tendency. . . ."

My note: The Spanish here is No marcan ninguna tendencia. The subject "they" which would be "ellos" if it were written is understood in this grammatical construct and refers to the antecedent subject just discussed, which are the two candidates named. This means no overall changes have been shown.

"The calculations available as of now from the 300 District Councils show an electoral advantage for the presidential candidate of the For the Good of All coalition Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador.

It is necessary to emphasize that the results can change at any time and that therefore they do not mark any tendency.

At 4:29 p.m., with 65.68% of the blocs computed within the 300 Electoral Districts of the country, a tendency of presidential voting in favor of the flagbearer of the For the Good of All coalition is registered.

My note: The key word here is "registered" which indicates "certified."

The numbers that the District Councils sent until 4:29 p.m. are as follows:

-- 65.68% of squares computed.

Presidential Candidates:

Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador: 36.91%

Felipe Calderón: 34.6%

Roberto Madrazo: 21.94%

Patricia Mercado: 2.73%

Roberto Campa: 0.93 %

If any of the "blocs" (summary reports of ballot boxes) had shown different vote totals than were reported in the preliminary count that would be very significant because the actual votes (Spanish is "acta" ['act' as a verb] since a voter must swear he or she is who he or she claims to be when turning in a vote and having their name registered as having voted) are sealed once they are counted in the presence of all political parties and an agreement on their totals is reached. Under Mexican law they cannot reopen the sealed "blocs" (casillas) to get at the individual votes (actas) unless a discrepancy is shown between the summary reports tallied in the preliminary count and that of the officially-certified count, unless there is some recognizable damage to or alteration of the document of the summary report.

What does this all mean? If there were discrepancies between the originally-reported vote summaries and those being certified today it would be front-page news in Mexico. Believe me on this.

[madprof98]

In California, 57% of Mexican immigrants voted for the Catholic Calderón."

Wish we could count on the Mexicans to vote their faith when they vote in our own country's elections.

[CedarDave]

What does this all mean? If there were discrepancies between the originally-reported vote summaries and those being certified today it would be front-page news in Mexico. Believe me on this.

Well, somethings going on, that's for sure:

73.58% de casillas computadas.

Candidatos Presidenciales:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.85 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.57 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %

[StJacques]

To clarify further, let me describe the procedure under Mexican law that governs voting:
1. A citizen shows up at the polls and requests a boleta which is Spanish for "ballot."

2. After filling in the ballot the voter declares himself or herself to the poll commissioners by name -- I'm not sure of how much documentation is required to prove who they are -- and they swear, in the same way one would do when giving an affidavit, that they are who they say they are and their "act" of swearing is recorded in the registry kept at the poll and their ballot is put in the ballot box. This is referred to as an "acta" meaning "act" when used as a verb.

3. At the end of voting all the poll commissioners, who represent all the interested parties participating in the election (they are certified before election day) gather around to witness the counting of the ballots.

4. When the count is finished the results are written up in a document. All of the commissioners must sign the document before the count can be considered official and these numbers include the totals for rejected or "null" ballots.

5. Once the document is signed all of the individual ballots are boxed and crated up and the entire unit is sealed. The boxed and crated ballots are sealed as one unit, which is referred to as a casilla which is Spanish for "square" which I have translated as "bloc." The document is also referred to as the "Conteo de Casilla" or "Square Count" and these documents are sent to the parent "Distritos Electorales" which translates to "Electoral Districts." There are 300 of them in Mexico, some special districts have their count handled right in Mexico City.

6. The first vote count of the election is held by the Programa de Resultados Electorales Preliminaries (PREP) whose name translates to the "Program of Preliminary Electoral Results." This agency of the Mexican government takes the reports of the documents that describe the count of the ballots in the casillas -- one document per casilla -- on election day and continuing into the day after. By law the preliminary count comes to an end at 8:00 p.m. the day after the election, or last Monday at 8:00 p.m. in this case, regardless of how far along the vote count is.

7. Two days later, that's today, the official certification of the vote begins. This process takes place whenever all of the documents reporting the contents of each casilla arrive in Mexico City and they are officially certified. There is no opening of the original ballots which remain sealed in the casillas. If the document is undamaged and there is no discrepancy between the totals recorded in the preliminary count and the one officially certified, they are done with that casilla. If the document is undamaged and there is a discrepancy between the total recorded in the preliminary count and the one shown during certification, the commissioners must explain, under oath, what is the actual count. If the commissioners' explanation holds up, the document's numbers are certified and they are done with the casilla. But if the document is damaged or recognizably altered and/or if a discrepancy between the preliminary count and the certified count cannot be adequately explained, then there is legal justification to unseal the casilla and recount the votes (actas) one by one. Certification of the vote is merely a process of collating the preliminary count numbers with the visible numbers revealed in the documents, unless unexplained discrepancies or damage to the documents is present.

That is how it is done. No new ballots will be nullified during the process of certification unless a casilla is unsealed. The numbers you see of nullified votes are to be expected. That number will reach something like 2.6 million if I remember correctly what I have read recently.

And again, I repeat, if there were discrepancies or alterations to the numbers in the preliminary count we would definitely be hearing about it for the reasons outlined in the procedures above.

[WOSG]

Thanks!! "No marcan ninguna tendencia. "

Freepers are causing indigestion by implying this means a change in results.

A prayer to Our Lady that the original tally will be re-affirmed.

[CedarDave]

Again, notwithstanding your excellent explanation, I beleive something is going on. All through the original count, Calderon had a slight lead. The opposite is happening here.

[StJacques]

I just checked ElUnviersal.com.mx and they continue to say "No marcan ninguna tendencia" (They do not show any tendencies) meaning that nothing has changed significantly from the original count.

The only way this could go under a scenario we see developing today (no reports of significant changes) and come out as a win for Lopez Obrador is if there was a computer programming error or a massive human error in the PREP. I can't believe that.

Obviously they haven't counted Calderon's turf yet.

[stevestras]

Interetsing thread.