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Amnesty: Setting The Numbers Straight (Robert Rector Debunks White House Low Ball Estimate Alert)
Frontpagemag ^ | 05/30/06 | Robert Rector

Posted on 05/30/2006 1:39:14 AM PDT by goldstategop

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To: traviskicks
Amensty From Government

hahaha. I've posted many times the last few months that the best we can hope for out of the next election is gridlock.
21 posted on 05/30/2006 4:27:20 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: goldstategop

22 posted on 05/30/2006 4:40:19 AM PDT by Beth528
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To: Mister Da
This immigration bill contains much more. Rush Limbaugh published a lengty article about the ramifications:

Rush Limbaugh Transcript on Immigration (Today's show) [5-26-2006]

I'm not a Limbaugh-bot, but he has an eye-opening perspective in that lengthy analysis.

======

With the immigration bill, we are being sold a bill of goods.

"The great mass of people will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one."

Adolf Hitler (1889-1945), German dictator. Mein Kampf, vol. 1, ch. 10 (1925)

===

The 'Immigration Bill' is the big lie that the Senate and the White House are trying to sell us now.

23 posted on 05/30/2006 4:42:48 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: goldstategop
"...and a short supply of new homes."

You don't have to worry about a short supply of new homes.  They will build the homes that Americans won't build...and a lot of them too!

http://www.uni-giessen.de/geographie/presse/images/Slums.jpg

24 posted on 05/30/2006 4:44:36 AM PDT by DH (The government writes no bill that does not line the pockets of special interests.)
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To: goldstategop

How about this...?

No amnesty (or path to citizenship, if you can't be truthful with your speech).

Period.

Then we don't have to worry about the numbers at all.


25 posted on 05/30/2006 4:52:14 AM PDT by WayneM (Cut the KRAP (Kare Rove Amnesty Plan))
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To: goldstategop

So the White House lied about the CBO numbers. Any fool knows there would be more than 8 million after 10 years even using their numbers, since it is much more likely that there are at least 20 million illegals here instead of the msm number of 11-12 million. In 1986, after the amnesty bill was passed we learned that Congress had lied about the numbers involved when three times as many illegals showed up for amnesty than predicted. Why would today's results be any different? The Immigration Service is in even worse shape today than in 1986, so their estimates are totally worthless.


26 posted on 05/30/2006 4:52:34 AM PDT by kittymyrib
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To: goldstategop
Hopefully the House won't become emasculated and these numbers will be thrown in the trash.
27 posted on 05/30/2006 4:57:26 AM PDT by wolfcreek
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To: goldstategop
We're going to lose America as we now know it.

Don't you get it? This is the main idea.

Don't you see that this concept lies beneath the entire debate? Even for a certain segment of those who post on Free Republic.

Then you add to this number those for whom a pool of cheap, easily exploitable labor is the main goal.

Then you add those who just don't care.

This is what we are up against.

28 posted on 05/30/2006 4:59:14 AM PDT by WayneM (Cut the KRAP (Kare Rove Amnesty Plan))
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To: goldstategop

That's what they want. A European Union over here.


29 posted on 05/30/2006 5:06:17 AM PDT by Luke21 (Democrats hate us, our heritage, and our religion. They think we belong in cages. Never forget.)
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To: Luke21
With the Amero in our future. Perhaps President Bush will be the first North American Union President, with Stephen Harper and Vicente Fox's successor as his co-Presidents. Who needs borders? We're all one big happy family!

(Denny Crane: "Every one should carry a gun strapped to their waist. We need more - not less guns.")

30 posted on 05/30/2006 5:08:29 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
The CBO figure of eight million immigrants promoted by the White House differed from the Heritage estimate because the figure:

was limited to 10 years rather than 20 years; excluded immigration allowed under current law; and excluded illegal immigrants currently residing in the U.S. who would receive legal permanent residence due to S.2611.

That pretty much says it all about the integrity of this administration WRT to this particular issue. Shame on them for this.

31 posted on 05/30/2006 5:13:17 AM PDT by savedbygrace (SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
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To: gubamyster

ping


32 posted on 05/30/2006 5:15:15 AM PDT by DumpsterDiver
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To: AmeriBrit

immigrants w/o legal status, = ILLEGAL ALIENS


33 posted on 05/30/2006 5:16:38 AM PDT by television is just wrong (Our sympathies are misguided with illegal aliens...)
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To: AmeriBrit
In my opinion this 103 million figure is grossly exaggerated. There's no way over 5 million would be allowed to enter legally each year. For one they wouldn't have the man-power to handle all the paperwork.

Read the entire article

"S.2611 has been amended by Senator Bingaman (D-NM) to reduce the largely unlimited potential inflow under the guest worker program. The bill has also been amended by Senator Sessions to include guest workers under the employment green card caps in the bill. These amendments reduce the vast flow of 103 million immigrants projected under the original bill. The amended bill would still grant permanent residence (and the opportunity for citizenship) to some 60 million persons by over the next twenty years. Finally, it should be noted that our estimates assume zero future illegal immigration. In reality, S.2611 is likely to increase future illegal immigration.

34 posted on 05/30/2006 5:26:31 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Always Right
If we had 100 million new immigrants, Mexico would be an absolute ghost country. Sometimes people check their logic at the door when they play with numbers.

You forget that Mexico will still be reproducing. We are talking about a 20 year period. Currently there are almost 10 million Mexican-born residents in the US and 4 million in California, according to the 2000 census, which probably underestimates the numbers. Also, remember that only about 60% of the illegals are coming from Mexico.

Mexico has a population growth rate of 1.16% or 2.42 children born per woman [compared to our .91% or 2.09 children per woman.] What makes the Mexican population growth rate so significant is that it has a net migration rate of -4.32 migrants per 1000 [compared to our plus 3.18.] The median age in Mexico is 25.3 compared to our 36.5.

The bottom line is that Mexico won't become "an absolute ghost country." In fact, it will continue to grow faster than the US and be able to supply even more Mexican citizens per year than it does now. Ireland used to do the same thing for decades. It is not a zero sum game, i.e., Mexicans entering the US doesn't lower the overall population, it just slows the overall rate of population increase.

35 posted on 05/30/2006 5:44:03 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
The bottom line is that Mexico won't become "an absolute ghost country.

Oh come on now. Mexico's entire population is only 100 million or so and that includes the 10 million or so that are already here. A 1.16% growth rate is not going to make that much difference. At that growth rate, even 20 years from now you are looking at under 130 million people. The numbers don't pass the smell test and the Heritage Foundation should be utterly embarrassed to put out such crap.

36 posted on 05/30/2006 5:51:11 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: Always Right
Oh come on now. Mexico's entire population is only 100 million or so and that includes the 10 million or so that are already here.

Mexico's population is 107 million today. That number does not include the illegals who are already here.

A 1.16% growth rate is not going to make that much difference. At that growth rate, even 20 years from now you are looking at under 130 million people.

Obviously, you don't understand the miracle of compound interest. If Mexico maintains a 1.16% growth rate over the next 20 years, its population will grow from the present 107 million to 134 million. And remember that this growth rate includes a negative migration. If the current rate of illegal Mexicans continues over the next 20 years, it will not make make Mexico a "ghost country" as you aver. In fact, it will have almost one-third more people.

Also, please note that illegal immigrants are coming in large numbers from Central and South America. 25% of illegals enter this country legally using valid visas and just stay.

37 posted on 05/30/2006 6:18:38 AM PDT by kabar
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To: goldstategop
The Senate Bill is a total clusterf^ck!


38 posted on 05/30/2006 7:05:55 AM PDT by Gritty (Amnesty will change us from being a neighbor of Latin America to becoming a part of it-Diana West)
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To: kabar
Mexico's population is 107 million today. That number does not include the illegals who are already here.

No it does not, acoording to this.

"Roughly 10 percent of Mexico's population of about 107 million is now living in the United States, estimates show."....Illegals are probably counted as still part of Mexico's population since they are still officially Mexican.

Obviously, you don't understand the miracle of compound interest. If Mexico maintains a 1.16% growth rate over the next 20 years

Oh I understand perfectly well, I just based it on my estimate of what I thought Mexico population was roughly, 100 vs. 107.

And remember that this growth rate includes a negative migration.

Yes and no. It includes the current levels of migration. If the flood gates were truely open as this prediction suggests, the current net migration rate would go from -4.32 per 1000 to about ten times that or about 40 per 1000. This would push their population growth from 1.16% to -2.84%, which would result in Mexico's population plumenting from 107 million to under 60 million over the next 20 years. Ain't going to happen. It's an over the top prediction that should never have been printed.

39 posted on 05/30/2006 7:09:49 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: goldstategop

From NationalLedger.com

Commentary
Bush: ‘Read My Lips – No New Amnesty’
By Nicholas Stix
May 29, 2006

When George Herbert Walker Bush was the Republican presidential nominee for the first time, in 1988, he told the Republican National Convention, “Read my lips: No new taxes.” It became his most effective campaign slogan, and one of the keys to his electoral victory.

But Bush the Elder ultimately raised taxes. In 1992, his base responded variously by staying at home or by voting for third-party candidate Ross Perot, thus bringing brought about the election of Bill Clinton.

Immigrants are Our Future

Bush the Younger fancies himself much smarter than his father. Thus, he did not announce, during either of his presidential campaigns, his plan to grant an amnesty to what now amounts to – according to pro-illegal immigration Bear Stearns economists Robert Justich and Betty Ng – over 20 million illegal immigrants plus their parents plus their children plus their siblings plus anyone who will pay them to say they are blood relatives, much less his plan to bring in, according to an analysis by Sen. Jeff Sessions’ (R, AL) staff, another 200 million legal immigrants over the next 20 years, or to mention the tidal wave of new illegal immigration (another 100 million?) this amnesty would bring about. He knew it would cost him the election, if he did. And so, he bided his time.

Well, George W. Bush still isn’t taking any chances, and so when he finally announced his amnesty plan, he did the equivalent of saying, ‘Read my lips: No new amnesty.’ (“What I have just described is not amnesty.”) He figures that if he lies enough about his planned amnesty, people won’t figure it out until it’s too late. “Too late” means after the coming fall elections. And to sweeten the pot for his social and religious conservative base (or as Karl Rove would call it, "the suckers"), he will propose a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

This is all a word game. Bush is simply calling amnesty by other names: “temporary worker program,” “rational middle ground,” etc. He insists that he seeks amnesty, er, rational middle ground only for veteran criminals, but not for rookies.

“That middle ground recognizes that there are differences between an illegal immigrant who crossed the border recently and someone who has worked here for many years, and has a home, a family, and an otherwise clean record.”

And yet, as Bush well knows, under the Treason Plan (known variously as the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act and as S. 2611) he champions and the Senate passed, 62-36, on Thursday, we will end up with amnestied, naturalized, “temporary workers”; amnestied, naturalized, recently arrived illegals; and amnestied, naturalized, long-term illegals. But for treason and democide to prevail, the House must pass its own version. Thus, there is still hope for America.

That Burning Sensation

The man who for years portrayed himself as a straight talker, is peeing on our leg, and telling us that it’s raining.

I voted for George W. Bush in 2000, and again in 2004. As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”

I suppose President Bush can tell himself that his proposal isn’t really an illegal immigration “amnesty,” because along with immigration law and America’s borders, he is eliminating the very concept of American citizenship. No legal citizens, no illegal immigrants.

The President says he is sending 6,000 National Guardsmen to the Mexican border, but is sending them unarmed, and in fact, not stationing them on the border at all, but in offices, where they will do “paper work.”

But that’s just a stopgap. Mr. Bush’s plan is, by the end of 2008, for the 6,000 do-nothing National Guardsmen to be replaced by 6,000 new, do-nothing Border Patrol agents. That’s over $400 million of nothing per year, courtesy of the American taxpayer.

If Citizens Didn’t Exist, We’d Have to Invent Them

And yet, the ruling elites will still need something to distinguish themselves from the rest of those whose pockets they’re busy picking. And so, there will still be illegal immigration in-between serial amnesties that will occur every few years, because the elites will demand ever cheaper baby sitters, gardeners, cooks, cleaning ladies, dog walkers, car washers, etc. The elites’ll show how morally superior they are to us paupers who can’t afford illegal servants, by periodically demanding amnesty for their servants. This will also endear them to the servants. Then, as soon as the newest mass amnesty goes through, they’ll fire their newly legalized servants, and replace them for even less with new illegals. (‘I’m sorry, Maria, but I just can’t afford you anymore.’)

Soy Un Yahoo

Neocon godfatherette William Kristol has his own word for commoners: “Yahoos.”

Echoing the Liar-in-Chief, and apparently cognizant that consistency is one of the three laws of lying; Kristol denies that the Bush amnesty plan is, in fact, an amnesty plan. Unfortunately, however, like President Bush, Bill Kristol seems unaware of the first law of lying: Plausibility.

At this rate, George W. Bush’s greatest political achievement will obtain in having rescued Bill Clinton from historical infamy. The Clintons’ reign of crime looks better with each passing day.

Taps?

On Memorial Day, in honoring our war dead from the Revolutionary War unto the War on Terror, we say “Lest we forget.” At Gettysburg, Abraham Lincoln exhorted, “that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain.”

In the new dispensation according to George W. Bush, however, those men did die in vain. Bush fully intends to surrender our patrimony.

If the House goes along with the Senate and the People permit it, this Memorial Day will prove to have been a time to grieve for America itself.

The new Bush plan is the ultimate in taxation without representation. It is revolutionary in its provocation and in its consequences. Perhaps we should stop calling the plan’s patron President Bush, and instead start calling him King George.

We the People survived a civil war, but can we survive George W. Bush?


40 posted on 05/30/2006 7:14:34 AM PDT by KeyLargo
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