Posted on 05/22/2006 5:59:20 PM PDT by RobFromGa
Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.
SAFE SEATS (GOP)
AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum
SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)
VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum
I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)
The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)
The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :
LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)
PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)
TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)
DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)
As usual, the Michigan GOP is f***ing around and thus Stabemall will be reelected. Come to think of it, I don't recall when we've ever had a real senator from Michigan in my lifetime. Karl Lenin is just a joke, the white senate version of congressman john conyers (africanhyphenamerican Detroit).
Does it surprise you that people tend to have the same basic politics from one election to the next, and vote for the same person as don't vote for someone with the opposite philosophy?
Does it surprise you that most states are not close to 50/50 in citizens with a particular political affililiation?
I'm not sure what your point is, but there are only 33 Senate elections this cycle and more than a third of them are in play. And most of the others are doing what the people the elected them want them to do. Whether you agree with their thinking doesn't really matter. The people of Massachusetts somehow keep reelecting The Swimmer and they even think he's doing a good job.
It doesn't mean elections are a farce or a joke.
I'd give Talent a better than 80% chance of retaining his seat. McCaskill isn't that strong.
Missouri Senate: Talent 43% McCaskill 40%
May 12, 2006--In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Missouri's competitive race for the U.S. Senate, Republican Senator Jim Talent narrowly leads his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, 43% to 40% (see crosstabs).
A week before the current survey, Senator Talent announced his opposition to a ballot measure that would forbid the state government from imposing restrictions on stem cell research that is allowed federally. Talent's sometimes fluctuating criticism of such research continues to spur controversy. McCaskill supports the ballot measure.
Our previous election poll in Missouri found McCaskill up by one percentage point. Every measure of this race suggests it is close.
This is the sixth time in seven polls that Talent and McCaskill have been within three percentage points of each other. In the last four polls, each candidate has been slightly ahead two times. Both candidates have reached 46% in one poll this calendar year and both have stayed between 40% and 43% in the other four polls conducted since January.
The closeness of the race is also highlighted by the rolling average our last three polls in the state. That measure shows McCaskill with a whisker-thin lead of 42% to 41%. The candidates have never been more than a point apart when using this measure.
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I assumed there is special sauce in the polling numbers and took this "toss-up" and made it 80% probable GOP. As we get closer, the uncertainty will likely drop as things swing in one direction or the other. I think Talent will win.
I hope you are right, I would love to see Santorum re-elected.
With regard to the latest poll from Ohio, this was conducted right after a hotly contested Republican primary (for Governor). This skewed results of the poll away from Republicans and toward Democrats. DeWine should soon regain his lead, and Blackwell should close to within single digits. Assuming the Republicans get their act together, continued good news in the economy, and the announcement of troop withdrawals from Iraq, DeWine should win easily and Blackwell should have a good chance of winning in November. Of course, under alternative scenarios, DeWine might lose and Blackwell lose badly. My only real point is that the recent polling in Ohio has been skewed by the contested Republican primary for Governor.
Thanks for your comments, I too think that DeWine will probably pull it out, but Ohio is tricky and DeWine has not made the base particularly happy. I hope upon reelection, he moves a bit to the right and remembers who elected him, and why they elected him.
Michigan is a strange bird. It will take the right candidate to turn it around for the GOP in a state-wide ballot. Here's to hoping one emerges in the next election cycle.
With regard to Harris in Florida, here is her problem: Given that she is now very far behind in the polls, Republican money will flow to other Senate candidates in a better position to win; e.g., pick-up opportunities in MD, NJ and WA.
Earlier polls had McCaskill ahead, but Talent has moved into the lead and absent a blunder on his part I think he'll hold on without too much trouble
I look forward to making Talent a "safe" pick but I think it is still too close to move it from 80% to "safe". Agree?
In Florida, we are now past the date for another challenger, right?
I respect Harris and think she would make a fine conservative Senator, but she is a lightning rod. She should have stayed put in the House for this cycle. The FL GOP could have had this seat with a strong candidate-- it is a real shame.
They will let the dogs vote in Seattle this time. After what happened to Rossi, the disciples of Lenin know they can do what they want. Elections mean nothing in Leninland. Cantwell is in.
FR back after being down 3.5 hours-- I think you broke it with your post about Seattle voting...
Santorum will pull it out. He is a true comeback kid. LS-ping...
Does it surprise you that election to the us senate has become tantamount to a lifelong appointment ended only by retirement, death or incarceration? How do we reconcile this with the fact that most people hold the senate in such low esteem. The elected officials have obviously rigged the system via gerrymandering, pandering and in some cases flat out fraud. That's why I say it's a farce.
There is no gerrymandering in Senate races, they are all state-wide races.
It is not surprising that incumbency is such a big deal because 1) name recognition holds off challengers in their own party and 2) people tend to vote for the same party from election to election and 3) people don't move around that much.
Most people hold "the Senate" in low esteem and hold their own Senator in fairly high esteem.
You must mean Tom Davis. I know The Hammer has moved his residence to NoVa, but that would still be pretty ballsy!
It will be a shame if we lose to Nelson in Fla. and Conrad in ND (I would even argue Nelson in Nebraska) because we did not attract a viable candidate. We should concentrate on having 2 (R) from the 26-28 solidly Red states. Gerrymandering will take care of the House. One more Bush appointment to the SCOTUS will mean we control 2/3 of the Govt. for the foreseeable future-and get 80% of what we want.
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