Missouri Senate: Talent 43% McCaskill 40%
May 12, 2006--In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Missouri's competitive race for the U.S. Senate, Republican Senator Jim Talent narrowly leads his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, 43% to 40% (see crosstabs).
A week before the current survey, Senator Talent announced his opposition to a ballot measure that would forbid the state government from imposing restrictions on stem cell research that is allowed federally. Talent's sometimes fluctuating criticism of such research continues to spur controversy. McCaskill supports the ballot measure.
Our previous election poll in Missouri found McCaskill up by one percentage point. Every measure of this race suggests it is close.
This is the sixth time in seven polls that Talent and McCaskill have been within three percentage points of each other. In the last four polls, each candidate has been slightly ahead two times. Both candidates have reached 46% in one poll this calendar year and both have stayed between 40% and 43% in the other four polls conducted since January.
The closeness of the race is also highlighted by the rolling average our last three polls in the state. That measure shows McCaskill with a whisker-thin lead of 42% to 41%. The candidates have never been more than a point apart when using this measure.
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I assumed there is special sauce in the polling numbers and took this "toss-up" and made it 80% probable GOP. As we get closer, the uncertainty will likely drop as things swing in one direction or the other. I think Talent will win.
Earlier polls had McCaskill ahead, but Talent has moved into the lead and absent a blunder on his part I think he'll hold on without too much trouble