SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- May 2006

self | May 22, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.

SAFE SEATS (GOP)

AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum

SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum

I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)

The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)

The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :

LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)

PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)

TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)

DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)

[MikefromOhio]

I'm waiting until the June polls before I really think about it.

May was the primary month. Give that some time to sink in.

[Petronski]

I'm not going with names, just a hunch:

Fiddy-fiddy.

There's a very good reason Veep Cheney remains so strong.

[RobFromGa]

Burns (MT) has Abrahamoff problems, it appears that the most likely chance of retaining seat might be for Burns to lose the primary.

[RobFromGa]

PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (30% chance GOP)

Unfortunately, Maryland is a liberal bastion.

[RobFromGa]

Steele has no more chance than that? I thought he was a rising star.

Unfortunately, Maryland is a liberal bastion.

[Clintonfatigued]

Here's my list:

SAFE GOP

Indiana (IN)
Maine (ME)
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

LIKELY GOP

Arizona
Nevada
Virginia

LEANING GOP

Tennessee

DOUBTFUL

Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
New Jersey
Ohio
Rhode Island

LEANS DEMOCRAT

Maryland
Pennsylvania
Washington

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Michigan
Nebraska
West Virginia

SAFE DEMOCRAT

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (liberal Independent)

Subject to change: Wisconsin is doubtful if Tommy Thompson runs, Hawaii Likely Democrat if credible Republican runs, and Connecticut remains complicated, though safe Democrat for now.

[Clintonfatigued]

True. Although Bob Keenan is little known, he has a better chance in the general than the scandal-tainted Conrad Burns.

[RobFromGa]

Great website- I didn't realize that Kean (RINO) was actually ahead in NJ polls...

[Tall_Texan]

Succinctly and skillfully done. I can't quibble too much. Some of it may be a shade optimistic but that is just the pessimist in me.

The Dems and the media talk a good game about retaking the House or the Senate but neither is going to see the major changes the wet dreamers on the Left keep predicting.

The House is stacked in favor of the incumbent. The Senate is too although I think it may actually be more volatile since most Senators have to go beyond their own safe districts into "hostile" territory.

I haven't given up on Santorum yet and I am hoping, perhaps foolishly, in a Steele upset. I also think Katharine Harris could make a good run in Florida if the party would just get behind her instead of trying to beat her up.

While I have my disagreements with many GOP senators, it is still important to have a majority because Bush may still get another chance or two to put somebody on the Supreme Court and that, in the end, may be the greatest thing he does for the country.

[MNJohnnie]

"Steele has no more chance than that? I thought he was a rising star."

In a corrupt Blue state tough for a Republican to beat the Democrat party machine.

Past Your Eyes (Every time you think, you weaken the nation.)

Except, of course, you confuse an emotion based political tempertatrum because the self proclaimed "Real Conservatives" don't get only 100% of what they want the second they want it for "Thinking". It's the exact opposite. Thinking Adults realize 60% of something is better then 100% of nothing, spoiled brat children whine, bitch and cry about not getting only 100% of what THEY want.

[ucsd1974]

The coastal lunatic fringe begins at LA and heads north. San Diego and Orange Counties have been in the "Red" column thus far. If a few million illegal aliens get the right to vote the state will really be feeling "Blue." It's hard to believe that the state that no too long gave us President Reagan, now sends Barbara Boxer to defend the USA.

[RobFromGa]

I hope that Santorum pulls this one out. He is one of the good ones in Washington, most of the time. It is his state that is the problem. If they can clean up the fraud in Philly, that will help a lot.

[RobFromGa]

Ben Nelson as Safe for the Democrats is crazy talk.

OK, but he's up by 19 right now...snip from here

May 13, 2006--The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Nebraska shows Democratic Senator Ben Nelson leads former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts (R) 54% to 35% (see crosstabs). Conducted the night after Ricketts won the Republican primary, the new survey shows little change from our pre-primary poll in April.

Nebraska is generally a very Republican state with 570,000 registered Republicans versus 375,000 Democrats. President Bush carried the state by 33 percentage points in Election 2004 and many GOP strategists had long hoped that the Republican tilt to the state would be enough to unseat the incumbent Democrat in this year’s Senate race.

However, Senator Nelson's popularity and the power of incumbency gives him the edge at this time. Nelson is aided by the declining popularity of President Bush. While 66% of Nebraskans voted for Bush two years ago, just over 50% approve of his job performance today.

[MNJohnnie]

Minnesota now has the same number of self identified Republicans as they have Democrats in the Minneapolis far leftist Minneapolis Star Tribune's "Minnesota Poll". 1st time Repbs have same numbers as Dems in Mn.

IN Mark Kennedy the GOP has a tough, experienced very well self funded candidate who is a two term Congresscritter going against a virtual nobody newbie. MN is more like "in play" then doubtful. Still an uphill battle but considerable better odds then you are giving it.

Rassmussen is blowing it. I would not rely too heavily on his numbers of Minnesota. He is over sampling Dems. Adjust for the Dem bias in his poll on Minnesota an you have an even race.

[RobFromGa]

It's a Republican state and if there is any hint the Senate might turn over, the Republicans will turn out in droves to run Nelson out of Washington on a rail.

I hope you are right, I would like to see another (R) from NE. Maybe Hagel can help him by telling the people of Nebraska that for their voice to be heard, they can't have cancelling Senators.

[RobFromGa]

I call MN as 50% in my analysis, and I think that will improve as time goes on. Being a MN guy myself (teenage years), I think that the state is becoming more conservative from talking with friends/family...

I hope that in '08, it winds up in the GOP Prez column. If it's Hillary for the Dems, I think it is in the bag...

[george76]

Kean is getting some family help. Quote...

April 18, 2006--The son of former Governor Tom Kean (R) now has a seven percentage point advantage in New Jersey's U.S. Senate campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in the Garden State shows Republican Tom Kean, Jr. leading Senator Robert Menendez (D) 43% to 36%.

( In March ), Kean held a two-point advantage, 41% to 39%.

[RobFromGa]

Thanks, I also have hopes for Steele and have donated to his campaign (and Mark Kennedy- MN, and Santorum-PA).

His best hope is if the Black community (who are largely conservative on many issues) will shake off the Democrat yoke and vote for Steele. If he gets a decent percentage of the Black community, he has a shot...

[Tall_Texan]

I don't believe any polls in NJ. The GOP always seems to poll better than the actual vote totals. As far as I'm concerned, a Republican doesn't win there until the vote is final. The Dems there are too sleazy.

Same thing in Washington state, btw. Polls may say Cantwell is in trouble but the Dem machine will get her elected no matter what it takes. Their tainted win for governor will only embolden them to cheat more.

[MNJohnnie]

MN is one of the few Democrat state parties with a pro life wing plus a lot of "Gun Nuts" who grew up Democrat but are slowing waking up to the fact that this is NOT their Fathers DFL any more. The MN GOP is goofy but sane. The state Democrat party is completely dominated by way hard leftist. Two of the MN DLF leaders went down to hang out with the banSheehan ditch witch last Aug. Not going to sit well with Democrat Military Vets.

Have to see if which way the out state Dems jump. Coleman won here in 2002 pretty handily. in 2000 and 2004 MN was a lot close then the Dems can take comfort from. Pawlenty is popular and running again this fall. And the both current Senators poll numbers are RISING which would suggest Minnesota is not in an anti incumbent mood. Hard to know since MN is a goofy state. Depends a lot on who shows up in Nov. Right now it seems the state GOP is a lot hotter for the seat then the Dems.