SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- May 2006

self | May 22, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.

SAFE SEATS (GOP)

AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum

SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum

I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)

The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)

The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :

LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)

PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)

TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)

DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)

[MattinNJ]

Nice work BTW.

[RobFromGa]

I think that Ricketts best shot is going to be to nationalize this election. Like I said before, with Nelson in there Nebraska has cancelling Senators on a range of issues. In order to have a national voice, they need both Senators rowing in the same direction.

As I said in #60, I will move Nebraska out of "Safe" and into the "Contests" area as Doubtful GOP (30% chance) on my next update. Hopefully Ricketts will continue to move up through the summer.

[RobFromGa]

Is Thompson running for sure? What is the timetable?

[MNJohnnie]

I suspect this is just more of the "I am mad about issue X so I am going to run around perdicting doom and gloom for the Repbs in Nov since they are not only doing 100% of what I want them to do."

Drawing the wrong conclusions from 2004 like most of the MN analysists. The Mn GOP won 4 of 8 Congress seats in 2004. The only reason they lost MN House seats is the State GOP sat on their butts and let the DFL out hussle them. I saw the DFL canidate for the MN House 5 times on my door step. Did not even get even a flyer from the Incumbent Republican because he felt so secure in his seat.

GOP was lazy, the Dems were hungry after geting beat again and again since 1994. Let us see if the GOP learned their lesson in 2004. Looking at the action on the ground, sure looks like the GOP is hungrier then the DFL. Think the same dynamic is at work and that is what you are seeing in the MN poll.

The State DFL is so convinced by the manufactured "Everyone hates Bush" polls they seem pretty over confident of the win. That a bad mistake. I suspect a lot of self styled Political Analysis are going to be gobbling for excuses the day after election day in Nov.

We keep telling you all that manipulating the sample in these polls to get the a pretedermined result is going to turn around and bite you all on the butt. Simply no intellectually valid reason to take a 51-48% 2004 nation wide vote result and suddenly start polling 27% R/38%D/35% Ind. Perfect example of garbage in/garbage out analysis.

Base all your conclusion on fraudlent data, you are likely to come up with fraudlent conclusions.

[RobFromGa]

I answered my own question, it appears that it was expected that Thompson would make a statement at the Wisconsin State Republican gathering last weekend, and he didn't.

There appears to be some who think he is going to challenge Kohl in which case he will likely WIN an important seat for the GOP.

Others believe he is setting himself up as a Veep pick by showcasing his popularity in WI (and also MN, and MI).

I have no idea which is true, and I'll make the change if and when Thompson enters the race. I would guess that Thompson vs. Kohl would be a 60% chance GOP-- agree?

[HostileTerritory]

I suspect this is just more of the "I am mad about issue X so I am going to run around perdicting doom and gloom for the Repbs in Nov since they are not only doing 100% of what I want them to do."

I supposed that's an easier response than confronting what I wrote about the trend really being people moving from DFL to independent instead of a big surge in Republican numbers.

In any case, I'm not an immigration-obsessive, thanks for asking.

The Mn GOP won 4 of 8 Congress seats in 2004.

98% of House incumbents are reelected. Big whoop.

The only reason they lost MN House seats is the State GOP sat on their butts and let the DFL out hussle them. I saw the DFL canidate for the MN House 5 times on my door step. Did not even get even a flyer from the Incumbent Republican because he felt so secure in his seat.

Superior organization does not explain the loss of 16 seats and then continued losses in special elections since then. The trend in Minnesota sure looks like a drift to Republicans in 2000 and 2002, enhanced by the reaction to the Wellstone memorial rally, followed by a sharp jolt back to the 'RATs in 2004. Party organization often follows from the enthusiasm and support of voters and volunteers, the lifeblood of any party, so it is hardly a good excuse to say "the party just wasn't that into the races."

Minnesota is up for grabs. The situation in 2006 is worse than in 2004. The Democrats have a star candidate in a district (the 6th) they have no right to be competitive in at all. I wish you the best but if I'm looking for good news on Election Day it's not likely to come from the Gopher State barring changes between now and November.

[Horatio Gates]

Yeah, McGavick has a shot at this but if it's a close one...well you know the drill. He's got my vote

[Clintonfatigued]

I am not in any way labeling Mark Kennedy the underdog. In fact, he is running a very sharp campaign. If Amy Klobuchar agrees to debate him, he'll gain more ground. But that doesn't change the fact that the national political climate is currently working against him.

This race could easily go either way.

[RobFromGa]

This race could easily go either way.

I agree that's why I call it 50%. So much can happen between now and November. It is an eternity.

[RobFromGa]

From a Blue State like Washington, a moderate Republican is probably the best we could hope for.

[RobFromGa]

from Rasmussen...

May 16, 2006--Senator Maria Cantwell (D) from Washington has been on the defensive lately. She has antagonized some of the political left with her stand on Iraq and her vote on the Alito nomination. The state's Democratic Party Chairman raised doubts about her campaign last week and her GOP opponent ran an early ad blitz.

Add it all together and Cantwell's support has fallen for the fourth consecutive month and the fifth time in the last six months. The incumbent began the new year with a fifteen percentage point lead over challenger Mike McGavick (R). Now, that lead has fallen to a mere five percentage points, 46% to 41%.

A month ago, Cantwell led 48% to 40%.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of the state's voters have a "very favorable" opinion of Cantwell, while 21% hold a "very unfavorable" opinion of their Senator.

For McGavick, the former Safeco CEO, the numbers are 17% "very favorable" and 16% "very unfavorable."

[RobFromGa]

So, is Tommy going to run?

[ClaireSolt]

I have been following this, but I don't have a link. You are wron, though. He will win, I think.

[RobFromGa]

If you hear anything on Tommy please post it and ping me...

[nina0113]

self ping for later

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 5/25 DUE TO FREEPER INPUT

SAFE SEATS (GOP)

AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum

SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
12 safe + 27 carryovers = 39 minimum

I see thirteen "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat.

The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :

LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)

PROBABLE RINO
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)

TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan could beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)

DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP
NE- D- Nelson(I) facing Ricketts- just starting general campaign (20% chance GOP)
WI- D- Kohl(I) will coast unless Tommy Thompson runs- (early July drop-dead date for decision) (20% chance GOP)