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I suspect this is just more of the "I am mad about issue X so I am going to run around perdicting doom and gloom for the Repbs in Nov since they are not only doing 100% of what I want them to do."

Drawing the wrong conclusions from 2004 like most of the MN analysists. The Mn GOP won 4 of 8 Congress seats in 2004. The only reason they lost MN House seats is the State GOP sat on their butts and let the DFL out hussle them. I saw the DFL canidate for the MN House 5 times on my door step. Did not even get even a flyer from the Incumbent Republican because he felt so secure in his seat.

GOP was lazy, the Dems were hungry after geting beat again and again since 1994. Let us see if the GOP learned their lesson in 2004. Looking at the action on the ground, sure looks like the GOP is hungrier then the DFL. Think the same dynamic is at work and that is what you are seeing in the MN poll.

The State DFL is so convinced by the manufactured "Everyone hates Bush" polls they seem pretty over confident of the win. That a bad mistake. I suspect a lot of self styled Political Analysis are going to be gobbling for excuses the day after election day in Nov.

We keep telling you all that manipulating the sample in these polls to get the a pretedermined result is going to turn around and bite you all on the butt. Simply no intellectually valid reason to take a 51-48% 2004 nation wide vote result and suddenly start polling 27% R/38%D/35% Ind. Perfect example of garbage in/garbage out analysis.

Base all your conclusion on fraudlent data, you are likely to come up with fraudlent conclusions.

I suspect this is just more of the "I am mad about issue X so I am going to run around perdicting doom and gloom for the Repbs in Nov since they are not only doing 100% of what I want them to do."

I supposed that's an easier response than confronting what I wrote about the trend really being people moving from DFL to independent instead of a big surge in Republican numbers.

In any case, I'm not an immigration-obsessive, thanks for asking.

The Mn GOP won 4 of 8 Congress seats in 2004.

98% of House incumbents are reelected. Big whoop.

The only reason they lost MN House seats is the State GOP sat on their butts and let the DFL out hussle them. I saw the DFL canidate for the MN House 5 times on my door step. Did not even get even a flyer from the Incumbent Republican because he felt so secure in his seat.

Superior organization does not explain the loss of 16 seats and then continued losses in special elections since then. The trend in Minnesota sure looks like a drift to Republicans in 2000 and 2002, enhanced by the reaction to the Wellstone memorial rally, followed by a sharp jolt back to the 'RATs in 2004. Party organization often follows from the enthusiasm and support of voters and volunteers, the lifeblood of any party, so it is hardly a good excuse to say "the party just wasn't that into the races."

Minnesota is up for grabs. The situation in 2006 is worse than in 2004. The Democrats have a star candidate in a district (the 6th) they have no right to be competitive in at all. I wish you the best but if I'm looking for good news on Election Day it's not likely to come from the Gopher State barring changes between now and November.