SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- May 2006

self | May 22, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.

SAFE SEATS (GOP)

AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum

SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum

I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)

The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)

The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :

LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)

PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)

TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)

DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)

[RobFromGa]

It will be a shame if we lose to Nelson in Fla. and Conrad in ND (I would even argue Nelson in Nebraska) because we did not attract a viable candidate.

I agree, see #41.

[RobFromGa]

I hope McGavick is able to defeat Cantwell-- she deserves to go.

[JDoutrider]

"(if conservatives turn out and give him a shot)

That's a big "if" from what I'm hearing lately...

It's sounding like the Ross Perot legions are crusading again...

Not that I don't understand that after watching Reichart turn into an earth firster...

[goodnesswins]

McGavick or Cantwell? How can ANYONE with a CONSERVATIVE bent NOT vote for McGavick? (I know, I know....he's not conservative ENOUGH....but, I HATE the thought of Cantwell there for 6 more years!)

[paul51]

Scratch the gerrymandering argument. We'll save that one for the house. Your points 2 and 3 are well taken. On point one, I'm not so sure the name recognition is the main factor dissuading challemgeas in the primaries although a lot of that results from pandering with taxpayers money. The deck is stacked in favor of the incumbent in both parties and that doesn't result in the best candidate getting the nomination. I'm deeply troubled by the constant re election of the batch of clowns and losers to the congress and generally appalled at the quality of 'leaders' we have in the congress. Unfortunately, I have no answer and I have little confidence in the system that results in what we have.

[Minus_The_Bear]

Do we honestly not stand a chance in WV? What does it take to get that guy outta there???

[Clintonfatigued]

I agree on John Warner. You can bet that Congressman Tom Davis runs, and he will probably get Warner's support (tacit or open). Who else runs is an open question.

[Clintonfatigued]

There's no denying that Mark Kennedy is the better individual candidate. He's a better speaker and has a great website. However, Amy Klobuchar has no voting record to attack and Bush is more unpopular in Minnesota than nationwide.

Minnesota is socially conservative, but is also skeptical of business interests and military intervention. This complex mix helped Republicans in the last three election cycles, but works against them this year.

[JDoutrider]

McGavick will get my vote... I just pray his middle of the road antics are for show. I won't throw my vote away on some 3rd party candidate...that guarantees CantVoteWell's reelection.

[MNJohnnie]

In which case the increase in Minnesota Republicans to parity with the number of registered Democrats makes no sense. So since you are not addressing my primary point, I made in my 1st post, I will ask it again. If you analysis is correct, why has the MN Gop reached parity in numbers with the MN DFL for the 1st time ever?

[Clintonfatigued]

A lot of younger voters, particularly in rural areas, are embracing the GOP rather than just voting for Republican candidates while calling themselves Democrats.

If the political climate were better, Mark Kennedy would be leading.

[HostileTerritory]

Because lots of people are ditching the DFL for nominal independence even though they still mostly vote Democrat. The Republican number was what, 30%? Up from the 20s? A good trend but nothing like a guarantee of statewide success. The past several elections have shown that Minnesota can swing both ways and it swung badly against us in 2004.

[phillyfanatic]

Yeah, living in the Soviet Republic of Ca., the Pubs are now dinousaurs. Di Fi and Boxer will go on till they are both 100. I will never see another state Assembly or state Senate go Pub either. Ca. is a permanent Blue state unfortunately. There are some GOP stars but very few: one is Tom McClintock.

[DM1]

"sell drugs? Kick backs? Illegal aliens"

you forgot dead voters

[DM1]

"RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative) "

I loved this assesment of RI lol

[Conservative4Life]

The Mpls Red Star Tribune has been famously known for adjusting their results. They feel they can add 8-12% to the dfl because many don't want to participate because they are out protesting something that's Bush's Fault.

[DM1]

"May 13, 2006--The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Nebraska shows Democratic Senator Ben Nelson leads former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts (R) 54% to 35% (see crosstabs). Conducted the night after Ricketts won the Republican primary, the new survey shows little change from our pre-primary poll in April. "

geez Rickets just won a contested primary give him a chance to get his campaign going
if these numbers look the same by the end of the summer then Nelson is safe but keep in mind Nelson barely won last time around so a good well run campaign should flip this seat. Can this guy do it? like i said wait and see the numbers after the summer

[MNJohnnie]

Which means that the MN Democrats must be REALLY in bad shape since even with their usual data manipulation the Star Trib's poll is finding parity between the MN GOP and the MN DFL for the 1st time ever.