SAFE SEATS (GOP)
AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum
SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)
VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
12 safe + 27 carryovers = 39 minimum
I see thirteen "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat.
The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :
LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)
PROBABLE RINO
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)
TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan could beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)
DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP
NE- D- Nelson(I) facing Ricketts- just starting general campaign (20% chance GOP)
WI- D- Kohl(I) will coast unless Tommy Thompson runs- (early July drop-dead date for decision) (20% chance GOP)
Modest in the House,
227 Republicans 208 Democrats Most likely
Worst Case: 223 Repubs, 212 Dems
Best Possible: 235 Repubs, Dems 200
Still alot of time in 2006
Senate slight losses
53 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 1 Socialist (sick)
Worst Case: 52 Repubs, 47 Democrats + Socialist
Best: 56 Repubs, 43 Dems + Socialist
Don't count Steele out. Common wisdom says he won't get it, but if the trend thats picked up since 2000 of Republicans picking up a few % points of minority voters keeps up, this election won't even be close to a 'dems' '94.