Posted on 04/06/2006 8:36:17 PM PDT by LdSentinal
TRENTON, N.J. - Republican Tom Kean Jr. can thank New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's unpopular budget proposals for his slight edge over Democrat Robert Menendez in the 2006 U.S. Senate race, according to a poll released Thursday.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll gives Kean Jr., a state senator, a 42-38 percent lead over Menendez, who was appointed by Corzine to serve out the remaining year of his U.S. Senate term.
Last month, Menendez led Kean by five points in a PublicMind poll, 42-37 percent.
Poll director Peter Woolley said that right now voters' preferences for the candidates are being driven by news events.
"Last month, Sen. Menendez got wide and positive exposure for his opposition to the Dubai Ports World taking over the facility in Newark," Woolley said. "This month, Tom Kean has the opportunity to respond to the governor's unpopular budget proposals affecting taxes and spending."
In a PublicMind poll released Tuesday, 36 percent of voters disapproved of Corzine's job performance, compared to 16 percent in a poll taken March 8.
The record $30.9 billion budget Corzine proposed on March 21 includes provisions for increasing and expanding the sales tax, raising taxes on cigarettes and liquor, cutting funding to higher education, and funding schools and towns at last year's levels, likely prompting local property tax hikes.
Democratic strategist Rick Thigpen said Thursday's poll suggests that Menendez is "being punished by certain segments of the electorate for the governor's proposed budget."
Republican strategist Mark Campbell said Corzine's budget, in which he broke several campaign promises, sent a message to voters that New Jersey Democrats don't keep their word.
"As property taxes in New Jersey are going up, Bob Menendez is going down," Campbell said.
The poll released Thursday also indicated that Kean Jr.'s name recognition has increased, up by 10 points to 72 percent, compared to 62 percent last month. Kean Jr. is the son of former Republican Gov. Thomas Kean.
Menendez's name recognition remained even at 63 percent.
The poll of 685 registered voters was conducted by telephone from March 27 to April 2 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
MN doesn't look like its going Rep, it looks like it's getting more ratty, actually. Pawlenty, the Rep governor, is losing in the polls to his Dem opponent. He was only elected by like 43%, if I remember correctly. The Dem nut Ford Bell is beating Kennedy, and he says if he's elected he'll call for immediate withdrawal. Peacenik nutcase makes the other Dem look moderate, and I think she's at the 49% mark at this point while Kennedy is still climbing into the low 40's.
Pennsylvania governor's race, and Maryland and NJ are looking good. I wouldn't get your hopes up about MN, though.
No, because DeWine is an incumbent that really has done nothing "wrong" or particularly controversial, and he's competent, and a hard worker.
FWIW, I just redid my Senate ratings tonight.
Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Likely Democratic
Connecticut
Florida
Nebraska
Vermont (I)*
West Virginia
Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Michigan
Minnesota*
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington
Toss Up
Missouri (R)
Montana (R)
New Jersey (D)*
Ohio (R)
Lean Republican
Rhode Island
Tennessee*
Likely Republican
Arizona
Nevada
Virginia
Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
DeWine has not polled above 46% in a single poll this election cycle. IMHO, he is on the razor's edge if things stay much as they are - 50/50 odds of reelection. If things get any worse, he will probably be looking for a new job, and not because he's done anything 'wrong' except have the misfortune to run in the wrong state in the wrong year.
I'm still remaining optimistic we'll hold the MN Gov and reclaim the Senate seat. I don't think the 'Rats have made the argument to dump Pawlenty (his plurality victory in '02 was because of a 3-way race). I also believe Kennedy can pull out a win as the state has tended to show an aversion in recent years to electing leftist moonbats to open seats (Dayton won only because he could outspend Grams, with Grams constantly under attack from the leftist media -- and Wellstone won twice against the same opponent because he managed to snow the state with his humorous and friendly ads in '90 and Boschwitz seemed too angry in the rematch). I agree we would've been better off if Dayton opted to run for a 2nd term, but we still have 7 months to go, and a lot of things can happen in that time (after all, who predicted Wellstone dying in a plane crash right before the election that had national implications ?).
My sense is that Santorum and Burns are history, and that neither will be all that close (i.e., the Dem by at least 4%). I think DeWine is out narrowly and Talent holds on narrowly. I think Chafee will win with at least an 8% margin. The Dems hold all their seats, so it's net GOP -3.
That's what I now think will happen in November.
Our only real dispute seems to be Ohio, which then in actuality is probably a dispute over how bad the anti-GOP sentiment will be in that state. I think it's gonna be severe; you don't seem to agree. I'm a bit surprised, since you've tended more toward expecting a Dem wave than I have. Anyhow, I guess we'll just have to see!
The thing is, is that Senators have a higher profile than House members, and thus the the candidates matter more. I also think there is a huge incumbent bias, that cannot be denied these days, for Senate elections, absent well, circumstances, or flawed incumbents, or arresting opponents. Ohio will trend Dem generically, no doubt about it, but it will most pronounced in state rather than federal races. That is why it seems Ohio will have a Dem governor. In any event, polls are less meaningful for Senate races this far out. One must take the measure of the candidates. In the end, voters will get to know them as well as political junkies know them now. In the arresting challenger department, I doubt that Brown has the right stuff, but I want to know more.
I'd still pop MN into toss-up, and even PA is moving that way as Casey drops in the polls. RI I'd move more towards toss-up and away from lean GOP, TN (my state) I'd move to likely GOP (it isn't likely Ford will get within 10 points of even our weakest GOP candidate). MO, I think Talent is doing better than is stated, and would move towards lean GOP, though he needs to work on his campaign a bit.
MT I would reluctantly move towards lean 'Rat as Burns continues to slide. AZ & VA has Kyl & Allen so far ahead of the competition that moving them to likely GOP is reasonable.
I'd probably create a list of "races worth watching", ones that have the potential to possibly shift or look exciting (my picks: such as NY with Spencer running a kamikaze mission against Hillary; WI where Tommy Thompson looms in the background which would instantly make the race competitive, if not lean GOP; FL, which goes without saying; NE, even if Nelson is popular, he still carries the toxic "D" label in an "R" state; WV - can the GOP take Byrd down ?; MD - Steele; MI- Dangerously Incompetent vs. ANY Republican; MN - Kennedy vs. Moonbat; PA - Santorum rebounding ?; WA - Maria dot.Bomb biting the dust ?; MO - Talent vs. the 'Rat Giant-Killer; MT - Too old Burns vs. the 'Rat pervert Morrison -- or Tester ?; NJ - Sleazy 'Rat Boss vs. Statist RINO with old name; OH - Bland DeWine vs. Liberal Brown; RI - Apostate Chafee vs. Laffey vs. ?; TN - Junior vs. ?; NV - Ensign vs. Son of Peanut).
Well, on that we agree: I don't think Brown is much of a candidate. If I did, I would not think he'd win narrowly, but handily. In short, I think a lot of Ohio Pubbies are going to stay home, mainly because they're angry at the state GOP, and that obviously if they stay home DeWine will lose their votes, but not through any fault of his own. And, I think it'll be enough for him to lose to even a substandard challenger to whom he doesn't really have any business losing.
As I've mentioned before, I think there's been some tendency to understate the degree to which indictments or scandals or allegations of corruption - if they stick - have a tendency to make 'counter-partisan' things happen at the voting booth. At least, that's what routinely has happened in the past.
I think Chafee will be in for a surprise in the primary. I said 5 years ago I would've voted for Bob Weygand, his pro-life Democrat opponent in '00. If Chafee were to win renomination, I'd similarly endorse his Democrat opponent. If the margin of seats in the Senate is at or around 50 or 51, he will not hesistate to switch parties a la Jeffords. He doesn't deserve our support under any circumstances.
It is worth mentioning that Sherrod Brown HAS twice won statewide office, winning Secretary of State in 1982 and reelected in 1986. He lost a 3rd term in 1990 to none other than Bob Taft. It will be truly a shame just when Ohio has the opportunity to elect a visionary GOP leader and one with the potential to bring Blacks en masse back into the party founded upon freeing them from bondage, that the establishment under the horrible ultraRINO Taft destroys Ken Blackwell's opportunity simply because they have the same party affiliation (despite being effectively from two completely different parties).
Minnesota: Klobucher has consistently led Kennedy in the polls. Sometimes narrowly; sometimes in high single digits. I originally had this Toss Up but when Kennedy can't break 43% and Klobucher has been near 50% in several polls, that's Lean. I won't be surprised if it goes back to Toss Up. If it does, then I'll move it. My ratings aren't predictions of where the race is gonna go but meant to reflect where the race is right now.
Rhode Island: If the election were today Chafee would certainly win both the primary and the general, and although both might narrow, I doubt it'll be enough for him to lose.
Tennessee: This is very close to Likely GOP. If I were more confident about what will happen in the GOP primary, then I'd move it.
Missouri: The polls quite clearly show a Toss Up with Talent slightly behind in most of them.
Montana: I don't think this Leans Dem yet, although I expect that it will likely end up that way. I think there are still too many variables that could potentially make this a GOP hold.
AZ & VA: We agree. I do think Virginia has more potential to narrow than do most pundits I've seen.
NY: Is hopeless.
Wisconsin: I just finally moved this up to Safe Dem. If Thompson runs, there's no doubt it'll move to Toss Up or Lean GOP, but I've decided as of this revision to rate the Senate races based on who's in the race now.
FL: Yeah, let's not even go there..
Nebraska: I had this in Lean Dem for a long time. Nelson won very narrowly last time. I wouldn't be hugely surprised if it narrows again, but it's not narrow now.
WV: Is just shy of Safe Dem IMHO.
Maryland: If Cardin is the D nominee it won't be close.
Michigan: I've got my eye on this one. I think there's much potential for narrowing. If this were not a Dem favorable year, it'd be a Toss Up.
Washington: I think this one's overhyped. Doubt it'll be close.
New Jersey: A total Toss Up in my view.
Nevada: The race I feel I have the least clear sense of.
Meant to ping you also to my post #33.
PS. To clarify, I'm saying we agree on where Arizona and Virginia are right now. Beyond that, I added that I think Virginia has more potential to narrow than most are forecasting, but I don't know if we agree on that part. Probably not.
Gotcha. I guess I try to prognosticate all the way to November, but I ended up getting mixed analysis because I'm also viewing it through the lens of today.
Perhaps I should've stated that even though we may obviously lose some of those races, they are worth watching. I threw in NV, for example, which will probably be close to 60% for Ensign when all is said and done, it's significant if only because the son of a former President is his opponent, and we're surely hoping to see it be a blowout for us. NY we mostly accept as being retained by Hillary, though is worth watching to see what Spencer can hold Hillary to (I'm guessing he may manage to hold her to a relatively embarrassing (for her) mid to high 50s -- Spencer may come out a hero and a future candidate for statewide office, perhaps Governor in 2010 if Eliot Spitzer turns into the corrupt megalomaniacal disaster I fully expect him to be).
The only other ones I might comment on is WA state, where it's hard to ignore the unpopularity of the Governor (even though her fraudulency isn't running this year, McGavick surely could try tying Cantwell to her). Cantwell herself never even got to 50% when she first ran and has never enjoyed much popularity (I personally believed she had one-termer stamped all over her -- of course, Osama bin Patty had that same stamp, but our candidates were good, but just fizzled out), and McGavick may actually manage to pull off a surprise (which if there is to be any in this cycle at this point, that may be where it happens). I know there are a lot of folks angry at Gov-elect (and he deserves the title) Rossi for not running against Cantwell, but I think he surely made the argument that he wants to claim the office the 'Rat courts stole from him in '08.
MD may be more towards leaning 'Rat, but there remains a component of the election that proves very tricky for the 'Rats. There has been substantial growing anger that Blacks have been clearly taken for granted by the 'Rat party in that state (where, IIRC, they are almost half of the primary voters). Townsend's choice of a White RINO Admiral as a running mate in '02 only served to fan the flames. If Cardin beats Mfume in the primary, I think there could be a major-league backlash that could see a substantial number of Black voters registere a protest vote for Steele in the general (the 'Rats own internal research stated somewhere near 44% could defect, which would be a disaster -- I'm not sure it would be that high, but I do think 25% is not out of the equation, and I don't see how Cardin could win with that kind of a Black defection). Similarly, if Mfume somehow wins the nomination, Steele will get scores of White Democrat votes because Mfume has little appeal outside B'more and perhaps heavily Black PG County and to put it mildly, "scares the straights." It's not an impossibility that Steele, given the relative closeness in the polls in the past few months, could potentially pull off an upset. I think it would also behoove Gov. Ehrlich to select another Black running mate, as that surely wouldn't hurt him, and could help the ticket (I know there was at least one disgruntled prominent Black Democrat pol from PG County who might consider running, and that would also inflict more damage to the 'Rat ticket amongst Black voters).
One mention about Nebraska. I still have to admit the bizarre situation where Dubya lured the one man that surely would've defeated Nelson, and placed him in the relatively unsexy job as Ag Sec'y. I just don't know what they were thinking with that move. Still, saying that, I'd rather wish Nelson would switch parties (which would free him to vote even more Conservatively than he does now, since being a 'Rat tends to constrain you solely on procedural votes) and I'd like to see the strange Hagel retire and replaced with the likes of Lee Terry, Jr. I almost tend to think of Nelson as being the political reincarnation of the late Ed Zorinsky. Zorinsky had been the GOP Mayor of Omaha that the 'Rats had lured to their side to capture the seat of the legendary retiring Roman Hruska in '76. Zorinsky never quite took to the liberal tack that the party demanded of him, and by the time he was in his 2nd term, it was only a matter of time before he was going to return to the GOP again, but he died right before he was to run for a 3rd term. It's an irony that the seemingly elderly Hruska opted not to run again in '76 (he was a quarter-century older than Zorinsky), but quite probably could've held the seat into the '90s and died short of his 95th birthday in 1999, a dozen years after Zorinsky (and Hruska retained all of his mental faculties until the end, dying only because he suffered a nasty fall). Sorry to go on here about political history, I have a habit of doing that.
I was thinking, too, of another unusual situation where a farm-belt Senator ended up losing reelection despite having a fairly high (near 60%) approval rating, that being the case with Roger Jepsen in Iowa in 1984 losing to the horrid Socialist Harkin. By all indications, Jepsen should've won a 2nd term even with Reagan at the top of the ballot, but yet he still lost.
If I had to guess (and a very unscientific one), Allen may clear a 60-40% victory, but the point for the 'Rats there is identical to what we want in NY, to embarrass the incumbent and deflate their victory percentage (since both are presumed strong Presidential candidates -- and I think Allen, probably, if I were a betting man, may likely be our standard-bearer in '08). The 'Rats may try to get Allen down into the mid 50s, but he needs to stay vigilant and try to keep it above 60%.
"It is worth mentioning that Sherrod Brown HAS twice won statewide office, winning Secretary of State in 1982 and reelected in 1986. He lost a 3rd term in 1990 to none other than Bob Taft."
The political situation in New Jersey now is such that conservatives have no good options. Thomas Kean, Jr. is far from the ideal public official, but he's the best we can do under the circumstances.
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