Gotcha. I guess I try to prognosticate all the way to November, but I ended up getting mixed analysis because I'm also viewing it through the lens of today.
Perhaps I should've stated that even though we may obviously lose some of those races, they are worth watching. I threw in NV, for example, which will probably be close to 60% for Ensign when all is said and done, it's significant if only because the son of a former President is his opponent, and we're surely hoping to see it be a blowout for us. NY we mostly accept as being retained by Hillary, though is worth watching to see what Spencer can hold Hillary to (I'm guessing he may manage to hold her to a relatively embarrassing (for her) mid to high 50s -- Spencer may come out a hero and a future candidate for statewide office, perhaps Governor in 2010 if Eliot Spitzer turns into the corrupt megalomaniacal disaster I fully expect him to be).
The only other ones I might comment on is WA state, where it's hard to ignore the unpopularity of the Governor (even though her fraudulency isn't running this year, McGavick surely could try tying Cantwell to her). Cantwell herself never even got to 50% when she first ran and has never enjoyed much popularity (I personally believed she had one-termer stamped all over her -- of course, Osama bin Patty had that same stamp, but our candidates were good, but just fizzled out), and McGavick may actually manage to pull off a surprise (which if there is to be any in this cycle at this point, that may be where it happens). I know there are a lot of folks angry at Gov-elect (and he deserves the title) Rossi for not running against Cantwell, but I think he surely made the argument that he wants to claim the office the 'Rat courts stole from him in '08.
MD may be more towards leaning 'Rat, but there remains a component of the election that proves very tricky for the 'Rats. There has been substantial growing anger that Blacks have been clearly taken for granted by the 'Rat party in that state (where, IIRC, they are almost half of the primary voters). Townsend's choice of a White RINO Admiral as a running mate in '02 only served to fan the flames. If Cardin beats Mfume in the primary, I think there could be a major-league backlash that could see a substantial number of Black voters registere a protest vote for Steele in the general (the 'Rats own internal research stated somewhere near 44% could defect, which would be a disaster -- I'm not sure it would be that high, but I do think 25% is not out of the equation, and I don't see how Cardin could win with that kind of a Black defection). Similarly, if Mfume somehow wins the nomination, Steele will get scores of White Democrat votes because Mfume has little appeal outside B'more and perhaps heavily Black PG County and to put it mildly, "scares the straights." It's not an impossibility that Steele, given the relative closeness in the polls in the past few months, could potentially pull off an upset. I think it would also behoove Gov. Ehrlich to select another Black running mate, as that surely wouldn't hurt him, and could help the ticket (I know there was at least one disgruntled prominent Black Democrat pol from PG County who might consider running, and that would also inflict more damage to the 'Rat ticket amongst Black voters).
One mention about Nebraska. I still have to admit the bizarre situation where Dubya lured the one man that surely would've defeated Nelson, and placed him in the relatively unsexy job as Ag Sec'y. I just don't know what they were thinking with that move. Still, saying that, I'd rather wish Nelson would switch parties (which would free him to vote even more Conservatively than he does now, since being a 'Rat tends to constrain you solely on procedural votes) and I'd like to see the strange Hagel retire and replaced with the likes of Lee Terry, Jr. I almost tend to think of Nelson as being the political reincarnation of the late Ed Zorinsky. Zorinsky had been the GOP Mayor of Omaha that the 'Rats had lured to their side to capture the seat of the legendary retiring Roman Hruska in '76. Zorinsky never quite took to the liberal tack that the party demanded of him, and by the time he was in his 2nd term, it was only a matter of time before he was going to return to the GOP again, but he died right before he was to run for a 3rd term. It's an irony that the seemingly elderly Hruska opted not to run again in '76 (he was a quarter-century older than Zorinsky), but quite probably could've held the seat into the '90s and died short of his 95th birthday in 1999, a dozen years after Zorinsky (and Hruska retained all of his mental faculties until the end, dying only because he suffered a nasty fall). Sorry to go on here about political history, I have a habit of doing that.
I was thinking, too, of another unusual situation where a farm-belt Senator ended up losing reelection despite having a fairly high (near 60%) approval rating, that being the case with Roger Jepsen in Iowa in 1984 losing to the horrid Socialist Harkin. By all indications, Jepsen should've won a 2nd term even with Reagan at the top of the ballot, but yet he still lost.
About Roger Jepsen:
His tenure in the Senate was one misstep after another. The only thing about his Senate career that was distinguished was his appearance.