My sense is that Santorum and Burns are history, and that neither will be all that close (i.e., the Dem by at least 4%). I think DeWine is out narrowly and Talent holds on narrowly. I think Chafee will win with at least an 8% margin. The Dems hold all their seats, so it's net GOP -3.
That's what I now think will happen in November.
Our only real dispute seems to be Ohio, which then in actuality is probably a dispute over how bad the anti-GOP sentiment will be in that state. I think it's gonna be severe; you don't seem to agree. I'm a bit surprised, since you've tended more toward expecting a Dem wave than I have. Anyhow, I guess we'll just have to see!
The thing is, is that Senators have a higher profile than House members, and thus the the candidates matter more. I also think there is a huge incumbent bias, that cannot be denied these days, for Senate elections, absent well, circumstances, or flawed incumbents, or arresting opponents. Ohio will trend Dem generically, no doubt about it, but it will most pronounced in state rather than federal races. That is why it seems Ohio will have a Dem governor. In any event, polls are less meaningful for Senate races this far out. One must take the measure of the candidates. In the end, voters will get to know them as well as political junkies know them now. In the arresting challenger department, I doubt that Brown has the right stuff, but I want to know more.
I think Chafee will be in for a surprise in the primary. I said 5 years ago I would've voted for Bob Weygand, his pro-life Democrat opponent in '00. If Chafee were to win renomination, I'd similarly endorse his Democrat opponent. If the margin of seats in the Senate is at or around 50 or 51, he will not hesistate to switch parties a la Jeffords. He doesn't deserve our support under any circumstances.
Rick Santorum has narrowed Bob Casey's lead, though it's still uphill.
As for Montant, I still hold out hope that Bob Keenan will win the primary, especially if Burns is indicted.