The thing is, is that Senators have a higher profile than House members, and thus the the candidates matter more. I also think there is a huge incumbent bias, that cannot be denied these days, for Senate elections, absent well, circumstances, or flawed incumbents, or arresting opponents. Ohio will trend Dem generically, no doubt about it, but it will most pronounced in state rather than federal races. That is why it seems Ohio will have a Dem governor. In any event, polls are less meaningful for Senate races this far out. One must take the measure of the candidates. In the end, voters will get to know them as well as political junkies know them now. In the arresting challenger department, I doubt that Brown has the right stuff, but I want to know more.
Well, on that we agree: I don't think Brown is much of a candidate. If I did, I would not think he'd win narrowly, but handily. In short, I think a lot of Ohio Pubbies are going to stay home, mainly because they're angry at the state GOP, and that obviously if they stay home DeWine will lose their votes, but not through any fault of his own. And, I think it'll be enough for him to lose to even a substandard challenger to whom he doesn't really have any business losing.
As I've mentioned before, I think there's been some tendency to understate the degree to which indictments or scandals or allegations of corruption - if they stick - have a tendency to make 'counter-partisan' things happen at the voting booth. At least, that's what routinely has happened in the past.
It is worth mentioning that Sherrod Brown HAS twice won statewide office, winning Secretary of State in 1982 and reelected in 1986. He lost a 3rd term in 1990 to none other than Bob Taft. It will be truly a shame just when Ohio has the opportunity to elect a visionary GOP leader and one with the potential to bring Blacks en masse back into the party founded upon freeing them from bondage, that the establishment under the horrible ultraRINO Taft destroys Ken Blackwell's opportunity simply because they have the same party affiliation (despite being effectively from two completely different parties).