PS. To clarify, I'm saying we agree on where Arizona and Virginia are right now. Beyond that, I added that I think Virginia has more potential to narrow than most are forecasting, but I don't know if we agree on that part. Probably not.
If I had to guess (and a very unscientific one), Allen may clear a 60-40% victory, but the point for the 'Rats there is identical to what we want in NY, to embarrass the incumbent and deflate their victory percentage (since both are presumed strong Presidential candidates -- and I think Allen, probably, if I were a betting man, may likely be our standard-bearer in '08). The 'Rats may try to get Allen down into the mid 50s, but he needs to stay vigilant and try to keep it above 60%.
Virginia will tighten because the RATS are determined to throw the kitchen sink at Allen. Won't work, but they are terrified of his presidential appeal in 2008.