Bush Approval Falls to 33%, Congress Earns Rare Praise

Pew Research ^ | March 15, 2006

[jmc1969]

In the aftermath of the Dubai ports deal, President Bush's approval rating has hit a new low and his image for honesty and effectiveness has been damaged. Yet the public uncharacteristically has good things to say about the role that Congress played in this high-profile controversy.

Most Americans (58%) believe Congress acted appropriately in strenuously opposing the deal, while just 24% say lawmakers made too much of the situation.

The new Pew survey underscores the public's alarm over the prospect that an Arab-owned company could have operated U.S. ports. There was broad opposition to the proposed deal from across the political spectrum, including two-to-one disapproval among conservative Republicans (56%-27%).

Bush's overall approval measure stands at 33%, the lowest rating of his presidency.

The president's ratings for handling of several specific issues, particularly terrorism, have also declined sharply. Just 42% now approve of Bush's job in handling terrorist threats, an 11-point drop since February. In January 2005, as Bush was starting his second term, 62% approved of his handling of terrorist threats.

Bush's personal image also has weakened noticeably, which is reflected in people's one-word descriptions of the president. Honesty had been the single trait most closely associated with Bush, but in the current survey "incompetent" is the descriptor used most frequently.

Congress has drawn bipartisan praise from the American public for its response to the possible transfer of U.S. port operations to a United Arab Emirates company. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (68%), and roughly half each of independents (53%) and Republicans (49%) said Congress acted appropriately, though a third of Republicans felt too much was made of the issue.

[Bubbatuck]

Here's a link from 2 years ago that shows 33% Democrat, 29% Republican.

What are the remaining 38%?

Independents!

http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95

[AntiGuv]

North Carolina registered voters are 47% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 19% Independent. Hopefully that shows you how meaningless your objections are....

[John Lenin]

Read it and weep.

But about that poll: By now, most people have heard that the sample was heavily weighted towards Democrats and Independents, but for the record:

- The sampling was of 1018 “adults.” Not “likely voters” or even “registered voters,” just adults, like my neighbor, the non-voting, non-registered recluse, who, when last asked what he wanted to see in a President, responded “a knife hilt.”

- The “unweighted” sample of Democrats was 409, to the Republican sample of 272. That’s a 40% to 27% ratio, with Independents rated at 33%. Once these samples were “weighted” --- which means they were adjusted to reflect the country’s general make-up --- the poll still reflected a bias towards Democrats by a margin of 37% to 28%, putting Independents at 35%.

[ItsForTheChildren]

So not the president is supposed to coordinate the vacation schedules of his subordinates and their reports? Oh, please. I'm tired of these people who expect the president to micromanage every damn little thing. Apparently W ought to be hauling trash out of New Orleans when he's not building new houses in Mississippi, toting an M-16 in Baghdad or sweeping for mines in Afghanistan when he's not personally leading the hunt for bin Ladin.

What the hell is the staff for? Perhaps the problem is Andy Card. Perhaps this goes all the way back to the lousy and rushed transition from when Gore attempted to steal the election in 2000. Perhaps it comes from Bush trusting people too much and believing in their "good intentions," leaving too many Clintonistas in place to screw him at every opportunity.

The senior staff is the responsibility of the president. Each senior staffer needs to take care of their own reports and not expect the president to.

[CyberAnt]

Like I said - people are not paying attention to the poll takers and the samples they use and how they use them - AND THEY DO MAKE A DIFFERENCE - AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHETHER OR NOT IT'S AN ELECTORAL POLL.

The goal is to prove to everybody that Bush is a total failure!! That's the goal!! The media will do anything - ANYTHING - to try to make the public believe it!

Let's not be stupid and believe the lie!!

[Bubbatuck]

I understand you believe that. You don't like the numbers, so they MUST be a lie.

I don't find that line of thought to be realistic. ALL the polls show a precipitous drop in the President's approval, and why shouldn't they? He's had some big SNAFUs lately.

I just think it's childish to pretend it's all a big lie concocted by EVERY poll out there. Did you believe it was all a lie when he was polling in the high 80s?

[CyberAnt]

Why are you so sure the remaining 38% HAVE TO BE IND - they don't have to be anything.

We're talking about people who are registed to vote here - not some flake who is too lazy to get out of bed and vote. Being a NON-VOTER does not make you an IND. How do you know that 38% are not all UNREGISTERED ..?? And .. if that's true - your analysis is all wet!!

What a ridiculous example.

[CyberAnt]

You're saying one state proves I'm wrong .. ROTFLOL!!!

[Californiajones]

Yeah, I like what you said -- go thte way of the Whigs, over spendin' GOPers.

But, where is our new Lincoln to lead our new party?

[pollyannaish]

I think it is perfectly legitimate to question any President's competence. In fact, President Reagan's competence was intensely question in his second term...and he had approval ratings lower than President Bush has.

That said, I disagree that the President is incompetent. I believe that there comes a point when it is nearly impossible to fight the hysterical, imbalanced onslaught with any effectiveness. There are undoubtedly weak spots on his team. But there are on all teams. At this point, he is doing the best he can to turn it around, but focused more on actually getting the job done reaping results. In his mind, it is the results that will be important in the end, not what people are thinking on a Saturday afternoon in March.

The bottom line is, we will never know how well he has done for several years and perhaps a decade. But I will stand by my prediction that when his time comes, we will end up seeing similar outpouring of gratitude and respect for this President, as we did for President Reagan. The press will be stunned and amazed. They will discuss how intelligent he was after all. They won't quite know what to do with themselves.

All because this President does not take the easy, poll driven route. He is doing the right thing, the hard thing in order to change the world down the road. The fact that there is still a man like that in today's world is frankly, amazing. I for one, am grateful NOW. It's so easy to lose sight of on a daily basis. But the long view, frankly is impressive.

[Reagan Man]

Democrats Gain Edge in Party Identification

Party Affiliation and Political Philosophy Show Little Change, According to National Harris Poll

TABLE 1

PARTY AFFILIATION

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

Base: All adults

Year*	President	Republican	Democrat	Independent	Democratic Lead
		%	%	%	%
2004	Bush, G.W.	31	34	24	3
2003	Bush, G.W.	28	33	24	5
2002	Bush, G.W.	31	34	24	3
2001	Bush, G.W.	31	36	22	5
2000	Clinton	29	37	23	8
1999	Clinton	29	36	26	7
1998	Clinton	28	37	27	9
1997	Clinton	29	37	26	8
1996	Clinton	30	38	26	8
1995	Clinton	31	36	28	5
1994	Clinton	32	37	26	5
1993	Clinton	29	38	27	9
1992	Bush, G.H.W.	30	36	29	6
1991	Bush, G.H.W.	32	37	26	5
1990	Bush, G.H.W.	33	38	25	5
1989	Bush, G.H.W.	33	40	23	7
1988	Reagan	31	39	25	8
1987	Reagan	29	38	28	9
1986	Reagan	30	39	25	9
1985	Reagan	30	39	26	9
1984	Reagan	27	40	24	13
1983	Reagan	26	41	27	15
1982	Reagan	26	40	28	14
1981	Reagan	28	39	28	11
1980	Carter	24	41	29	17
1979	Carter	22	41	31	19
1978	Carter	22	43	30	21
1977	Carter	21	48	25	27
1976	Ford	24	47	24	23
1975	Nixon/Ford	21	46	27	25
1974	Nixon	23	45	32	22
1973	Nixon	26	48	26	22
1972	Nixon	30	47	23	17
1971	Nixon	31	49	20	18
1970	Nixon	31	49	20	18
1969	Nixon	32	49	19	17

[HitmanLV]

The conventional wisdom on FR is that all of those polls are wrong, and that he is in fact much more popular across the fruited plane.

FR conventional wisdom has no street cred these days.

[AntiGuv]

Yep. You figured me out. I am cold-busted!

[shroudie]

The sampling method used for polling is valid. It is completely invalid to adjust the numbers after the fact. The question about party affiliation is telling and troubling for those who hold to a conservative agenda.

The fact of the matter is that as poll numbers drop, the number of people who say they are Republican is dropping. This doesn’t mean that the number of registered Republicans is dropping. Nor is it a reflection of adherence to a conservative agenda. Party affiliation responses have a mushy component to them and it swings both ways for both parties. The question is always asked at the end of the survey and that is alarming.

This is not a poll of the agenda of the American mindset. This is a poll of the measure of success of the president and his execution of the agenda. Bush is dragging the conservative agenda down. The public perception that things are not going well in Iraq is probably the primary factor in people’s minds. Whether it is going well or is not is immaterial. It doesn’t look good. The president might have better support if he was capable of communicating better about the war. But his speeches are not effective.

Part of what makes him seem ineffective on the war is the general lackluster perception from other issues: Harriet Meirs, his preemptive veto threat on Dubai, his prescription benefits sessions that look like 3AM infomercials, his standoffish attitude towards congress, etc. etc. etc.

The polls are really very accurate reflections of the public view; not of the conservative agenda but of the man charged to lead the country. Even if the polls are wrong (and they are not) he is hurting the conservative agenda.

Conservatives need to ask themselves what is more important, the agenda or Bush? That is why congress is distancing itself from the president. That is why people are suggesting staff changes. That is why more people are telling pollsters they are Democrats. This last point is the most alarming thing about the poll numbers.

[Bubbatuck]

ok... 1% are Greens and 1% are Libertarian.

You seem to think it means registering for the Independent Party. It's not... it's just not being aligned with a party. All evidence shows 30-some percent of Americans so identify themselves.

[HitmanLV]

It's the independents that he really takes the hit on.

[pollyannaish]

You are certainly entitled to your perception of the President, and it appears that you are comforted by the fact that there are others who feel the same way you do.


However, that doesn't necessarily make you right.

[HitmanLV]

Freepers have been in utter denial about the polls for months. They simply will not accept that more people are self identifying as Democrats and Independents at the expense of the GOP. You are completely right, but many Freepers don't have the clarity or maturity to recognize this.

[HitmanLV]

Bush doesn't have the political clout or credibility to bomb anyone now.

[CyberAnt]

No I didn't think the 80% was a lie .. but I knew it wouldn't last .. because people were just reacting to 9/11 - not the President's JA in general.

And .. your assumption that I don't like the numbers and that's why I think it's a lie .. the numbers say it's a lie - that's what I'm trying to tell you. I cannot believe you can look at this chart and not see some number crunching going on - consistantly by the same groups .. really ..?? You can't see that ..?? Or you won't admit that you see that ..?? Then it's okay for me to say - YOU LIKE THE LOW NUMBERS FOR BUSH - so you don't care to see they are phoney.

34% (CBSNews -- Democrats +13)
37% (AP/Ipsos -- Democrats +12)
39% (FoxNews/OD -- Democrats +10)
41% (ABCNews/WP -- Democrats +8)
46% (Battleground -- Democrats even)

AMAZING THE DIFFERENCE A SAMPLE MAKES!!!!