The sampling method used for polling is valid. It is completely invalid to adjust the numbers after the fact. The question about party affiliation is telling and troubling for those who hold to a conservative agenda.
The fact of the matter is that as poll numbers drop, the number of people who say they are Republican is dropping. This doesn’t mean that the number of registered Republicans is dropping. Nor is it a reflection of adherence to a conservative agenda. Party affiliation responses have a mushy component to them and it swings both ways for both parties. The question is always asked at the end of the survey and that is alarming.
This is not a poll of the agenda of the American mindset. This is a poll of the measure of success of the president and his execution of the agenda. Bush is dragging the conservative agenda down. The public perception that things are not going well in Iraq is probably the primary factor in people’s minds. Whether it is going well or is not is immaterial. It doesn’t look good. The president might have better support if he was capable of communicating better about the war. But his speeches are not effective.
Part of what makes him seem ineffective on the war is the general lackluster perception from other issues: Harriet Meirs, his preemptive veto threat on Dubai, his prescription benefits sessions that look like 3AM infomercials, his standoffish attitude towards congress, etc. etc. etc.
The polls are really very accurate reflections of the public view; not of the conservative agenda but of the man charged to lead the country. Even if the polls are wrong (and they are not) he is hurting the conservative agenda.
Conservatives need to ask themselves what is more important, the agenda or Bush? That is why congress is distancing itself from the president. That is why people are suggesting staff changes. That is why more people are telling pollsters they are Democrats. This last point is the most alarming thing about the poll numbers.
Well .. if the guy is that bad - just throw in the towel and go home - it's all over.
I give up - you people are just too stupid to realize the media is lying through their teeth. Go ahead and believe this mess .. and it will break your heart in 2006 when the dems lose and lose and lose again and again and again - because the AMERICAN PEOPLE are totally fed up with the lying - smearing - Bush haters.
AND - FOR YOUR INFORMATION .. I don't happen to think the President's speeches are "INEFFECTIVE" and your statement tells me who and what you are and how you vote. Besides, the condescending attitude - talking down to me like I'm a 2 year old - gave you away!
Quite frankly .. I don't give a RIP what you think!!
Thanks for this wonderful, sobering post.