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Iran, the Bomb and the Cowboy
Oregon Magazine ^ | March 14, 2006 | Larry Leonard

Posted on 03/14/2006 1:08:05 PM PST by WaterDragon

"As I have said time and time again, a negotiated settlement is the best solution." -- Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations

The American ambassador to that non-august body calls the Iran problem one of the great dangers facing the West, and indeed the world. China and Russia have both said they will veto any attempt to create sanctions in the Security Council -- which may be taken to signify that to them Iranian terrorists with their own stock of nukes are less a threat to world peace than was South African apartheid.

Events are shaping the situation like a funnel. Iran is daily reducing Bush's options. Watching, one is left wondering about the forces working on the mullahs.

The scenario under discussion here, as seen from these drippy fern temperate rain forested regions will play out as follows. Before mid-summer, the U.S. will send stealth bombers to slide improved bunker buster bombs down the vent pipes of underground buildings in about a dozen locations in the Dictatorship of Iran. The U.S. will do it for two reasons. First, if we don't, Israel will. Second, if Israel does, the cards in the geopolitical deck will reshuffle in a way that cannot be predicted, except to this extent: it seems almost certain that all bloody hell will break loose. The genie will be freed from his bottle....[more]

(Excerpt) Read more at oregonmag.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: allies; bomb; cowboy; defense; iran; israel; leonard; preemptive
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1 posted on 03/14/2006 1:08:07 PM PST by WaterDragon
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To: WaterDragon

As I recal,l the best way to change a country's course of action is to bring diplomatic, economic, and MILITARY pressure to bear on it simultaneously. Diplomatic pressure alone rarely works.

One should act only when it is in the vital national interests of the US.


2 posted on 03/14/2006 1:13:40 PM PST by Citizen Tom Paine (An old sailor sends)
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To: WaterDragon
""As I have said time and time again, a negotiated settlement is the best solution. However, since I am a useless Marxist bureaucrat interested only his own enrichment, I'm not holding my breath." -- Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations
3 posted on 03/14/2006 1:15:39 PM PST by pabianice
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To: Citizen Tom Paine
Military action is the extension of diplomacy - Clausewitz
4 posted on 03/14/2006 1:18:56 PM PST by pfflier
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To: pabianice

What kind of negotiated settlement is there to be had?

The Iranian regime wants to bring down America, from their President's public statements. Would Ahmadinejad settle for destroying just half of the US?


5 posted on 03/14/2006 1:29:29 PM PST by Frank T
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To: WaterDragon
While Bush has the cajones to take out Iranian nukes, the Democrats in Congress will seriously attempt to impeach him and the MSM, peaceniks and other Bush hating lefties will go ballistic. Congress will then force a premature withdrawal of US forces in Iraq followed by a civil war and take over of Iraq by Iran and other terrorists. Results being worse than an Iran with nukes.

What we and Israel might need to accept is a nuclear armed Iran. Then the doctrine of MAD will be resurrected. The use of their nuclear missiles will trigger a nuclear response against Iran and at least someone in Iran will understand that reality. They may have the nukes but be powerless to use them for anything but blackmail and propaganda. The big if is whether the Iranians will share their bomb with terrorists. Again the MAD doctrine needs to be very clear...any use of nukes even traced to Iran means a nuclear response.

The leftists and MSM will condemn Bush if Iran gets nukes, but he can say he was waiting for the UN to act sanctions to work etc.

6 posted on 03/14/2006 1:30:37 PM PST by The Great RJ ("Mir wölle bleiwen wat mir sin" or "We want to remain what we are." ..Luxembourg motto)
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To: The Great RJ
What we and Israel might need to accept is a nuclear armed Iran. Then the doctrine of MAD will be resurrected.

While we might accept that the Israelis cannot. They don't have the territory to survive a nuclear attack, and the other Arab countries would quickly attack to pick over the remaining bones. Further, I'm not so sure that Ahmedinejad would be deterred by the threat of destruction of the State of Iran - he may see that as necessary for the second coming of Mohammed or the Mahdi or whatever it is they await. Plain and simple, he's a madman and must not be allowed to possess nukes!

Additionally, how long before the Iranians tell us to get out of Iraq and the Gulf or Baghdad, Manama, Riyadh, and Dubai net nuked? No, no, no, hell no, the Iranians must not get nukes! They're already threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz if sanctions are applied. It's only a threat, and one I doubt they could implement, but it shows their state-of-mind.

7 posted on 03/14/2006 1:39:03 PM PST by Rummyfan
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To: WaterDragon
Bush is the classic western American man. He was given the star to wear on his vest, and will defend the town, even if he stands alone.

...the perfect metaphor

8 posted on 03/14/2006 1:47:38 PM PST by Donald Rumsfeld Fan ("fake but accurate": NY Times)
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To: Donald Rumsfeld Fan

Wasn't High Noon a Presidential favorite for about 50 years?


9 posted on 03/14/2006 2:02:02 PM PST by SF Republican
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To: The Great RJ
I agree that the pressure on Bush not to take out the Iranian nuke facilities may be so great that he holds back until we are presented with a fait accompli.

However, I do not share your optimism that the Iranians won't use atomics on the Jooooooozzzz.

The more cynical might think that some in American government might even welcome Iranian first use, as that would certainly provide the poltical cover and national unity necessary to really permanently put paid to the Iranians. I do think a strike on Israel by the Iranians would result in massive retaliation, perhaps by Israel and perhaps by the US and Britain, perhaps by all three acting in concert.

10 posted on 03/14/2006 2:06:14 PM PST by CatoRenasci (Ceterum Censeo Arabiam Esse Delendam -- Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit)
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To: SF Republican
I don't know. It was made in 1952.

It's one of my all time favorites. I have it in my movie library.

The movie is a perfect mataphor for Bush and the WOT. The town was cowardly and wouldn't support the sheriff. They hated him for his determination not to run but instead to stand and fight.

When he killed the bad guys without their help the cowards came out of their "holes" to pat him on the back.

Cooper then took his badge and threw it in the dirt at their feet and left town with his new bride never looking back.

11 posted on 03/14/2006 2:16:58 PM PST by Donald Rumsfeld Fan ("fake but accurate": NY Times)
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To: The Great RJ
I don't want to play that game (MAD) with those crazies. And, most assuredly, neither does Israel.
12 posted on 03/14/2006 2:28:07 PM PST by Blue State Insurgent (ABAJO FIDEL)
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To: Donald Rumsfeld Fan

"Do not forsake me, oh my darling."


13 posted on 03/14/2006 2:30:55 PM PST by Blue State Insurgent (ABAJO FIDEL)
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To: The Great RJ

MAD won't work when the other party is a nutcase. It depends on some values in common, like loving their children. Now who blows up their own kid and then talks their little brother into doing it too?

I wonder about the sanity of those who think MAD will work with the mullahs.


14 posted on 03/14/2006 3:06:25 PM PST by E.Allen
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To: E.Allen
I wonder about the sanity of those who think MAD will work with the mullahs.

A recent military parade in Iran showed off their new missile forces. In the parade was a banner depicting an Iranian missile destroying Israel. Their 'elected' mullah leader has also openly called for the destruction of Israel. They really cannot make their intentions any clearer.

15 posted on 03/14/2006 7:26:29 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: LuvyaDubya; prairiebreeze; Miss Marple; onyx; Irish_Thatcherite; Abundy; GretchenM; ...

Pinging and a BTTT


16 posted on 03/14/2006 7:42:52 PM PST by WaterDragon
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To: WaterDragon

Thanks for the ping. I agree that we will have to do something by summer. I hold out hope that the Iranians themselves will ditch the mullahs and their nut-case president.


17 posted on 03/14/2006 7:48:48 PM PST by Miss Marple (Lord, please look after Mozart Lover's and Jemian's sons and keep them strong.)
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To: WaterDragon
This can be avoided only if the Iranians, like the management of Libya, grasp that the cowboy doesn't bluff. They must not play games of chess with him. They will not be allowed to use negotiations to stall their way to completion of a bomb. They must understand that this man will not stand for that. He already has a date in his head. He will listen and discuss and hope for peace up to the last hour. But, come the deadline, they must understand that he will take action.

Unfortunately for everybody, Iran is formulating it's plans according to the UN, Democrats, and the MSM. They are not listening to the guy that can pull the trigger.

18 posted on 03/14/2006 7:51:41 PM PST by operation clinton cleanup
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To: The Great RJ

No we cannot and especially Israel cannot accept a nuclear iran. The mullahs and the terrorists they support at crazy enough to USE them. MAD does not work against somone willing to die.


19 posted on 03/14/2006 7:56:01 PM PST by Paul_Denton (The U.N. Building. What a joke! They turned it into low rent housing. It's a dump.)
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To: WaterDragon
Regime change. Nuclear weapons in the hands of the Iranians themselves isn't a big problem. Nuclear weapons in the hands of the current Iranian government is a disaster waiting only for some fool to push the button in a fit of Islamic fervor. A nuclear program destroyed or damaged by bombing with the current government still in power is only delaying the inevitable. The government needs to go. If, in addition, a whole lot of wealthy turban-wearing thieves end up hanging from lampposts, so much the better, but one way or the other the government has to go.
20 posted on 03/14/2006 7:56:59 PM PST by Billthedrill
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