...the perfect metaphor
Posted on 03/14/2006 1:08:05 PM PST by WaterDragon
"As I have said time and time again, a negotiated settlement is the best solution." -- Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations
The American ambassador to that non-august body calls the Iran problem one of the great dangers facing the West, and indeed the world. China and Russia have both said they will veto any attempt to create sanctions in the Security Council -- which may be taken to signify that to them Iranian terrorists with their own stock of nukes are less a threat to world peace than was South African apartheid.
Events are shaping the situation like a funnel. Iran is daily reducing Bush's options. Watching, one is left wondering about the forces working on the mullahs.
The scenario under discussion here, as seen from these drippy fern temperate rain forested regions will play out as follows. Before mid-summer, the U.S. will send stealth bombers to slide improved bunker buster bombs down the vent pipes of underground buildings in about a dozen locations in the Dictatorship of Iran. The U.S. will do it for two reasons. First, if we don't, Israel will. Second, if Israel does, the cards in the geopolitical deck will reshuffle in a way that cannot be predicted, except to this extent: it seems almost certain that all bloody hell will break loose. The genie will be freed from his bottle....[more]
(Excerpt) Read more at oregonmag.com ...
As I recal,l the best way to change a country's course of action is to bring diplomatic, economic, and MILITARY pressure to bear on it simultaneously. Diplomatic pressure alone rarely works.
One should act only when it is in the vital national interests of the US.
What kind of negotiated settlement is there to be had?
The Iranian regime wants to bring down America, from their President's public statements. Would Ahmadinejad settle for destroying just half of the US?
What we and Israel might need to accept is a nuclear armed Iran. Then the doctrine of MAD will be resurrected. The use of their nuclear missiles will trigger a nuclear response against Iran and at least someone in Iran will understand that reality. They may have the nukes but be powerless to use them for anything but blackmail and propaganda. The big if is whether the Iranians will share their bomb with terrorists. Again the MAD doctrine needs to be very clear...any use of nukes even traced to Iran means a nuclear response.
The leftists and MSM will condemn Bush if Iran gets nukes, but he can say he was waiting for the UN to act sanctions to work etc.
While we might accept that the Israelis cannot. They don't have the territory to survive a nuclear attack, and the other Arab countries would quickly attack to pick over the remaining bones. Further, I'm not so sure that Ahmedinejad would be deterred by the threat of destruction of the State of Iran - he may see that as necessary for the second coming of Mohammed or the Mahdi or whatever it is they await. Plain and simple, he's a madman and must not be allowed to possess nukes!
Additionally, how long before the Iranians tell us to get out of Iraq and the Gulf or Baghdad, Manama, Riyadh, and Dubai net nuked? No, no, no, hell no, the Iranians must not get nukes! They're already threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz if sanctions are applied. It's only a threat, and one I doubt they could implement, but it shows their state-of-mind.
...the perfect metaphor
Wasn't High Noon a Presidential favorite for about 50 years?
However, I do not share your optimism that the Iranians won't use atomics on the Jooooooozzzz.
The more cynical might think that some in American government might even welcome Iranian first use, as that would certainly provide the poltical cover and national unity necessary to really permanently put paid to the Iranians. I do think a strike on Israel by the Iranians would result in massive retaliation, perhaps by Israel and perhaps by the US and Britain, perhaps by all three acting in concert.
It's one of my all time favorites. I have it in my movie library.
The movie is a perfect mataphor for Bush and the WOT. The town was cowardly and wouldn't support the sheriff. They hated him for his determination not to run but instead to stand and fight.
When he killed the bad guys without their help the cowards came out of their "holes" to pat him on the back.
Cooper then took his badge and threw it in the dirt at their feet and left town with his new bride never looking back.
"Do not forsake me, oh my darling."
MAD won't work when the other party is a nutcase. It depends on some values in common, like loving their children. Now who blows up their own kid and then talks their little brother into doing it too?
I wonder about the sanity of those who think MAD will work with the mullahs.
A recent military parade in Iran showed off their new missile forces. In the parade was a banner depicting an Iranian missile destroying Israel. Their 'elected' mullah leader has also openly called for the destruction of Israel. They really cannot make their intentions any clearer.
Pinging and a BTTT
Thanks for the ping. I agree that we will have to do something by summer. I hold out hope that the Iranians themselves will ditch the mullahs and their nut-case president.
Unfortunately for everybody, Iran is formulating it's plans according to the UN, Democrats, and the MSM. They are not listening to the guy that can pull the trigger.
No we cannot and especially Israel cannot accept a nuclear iran. The mullahs and the terrorists they support at crazy enough to USE them. MAD does not work against somone willing to die.
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