Posted on 02/18/2006 7:25:29 AM PST by Paleo Conservative
The age of retirement should be raised to 85 by 2050 because of trends in life expectancy, a US biologist has said.
Shripad Tuljapurkar of Stanford University says anti-ageing advances could raise life expectancy by a year each year over the next two decades.
A longer life could mean a longer
working life
That will put a strain on economies around the world if current retirement ages are maintained, he warned.
He also told a science meeting in St Louis that 50-year or 75-year mortgages may not be unusual in the future.
Dr Tuljapurkar was speaking at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in the Missouri city.
"People are going to do things they didn't get round to in their working lives. Current institutions are really not equipped at the moment to deal with such long lives," Dr Tuljapurkar said.
"We are going to have to plan a lot more carefully, which people are not very good at."
Lifestyle trends
The Stanford researcher has been looking at relationships between historical trends in ageing, population growth and economic activity.
Based on this, he came up with a scenario in which anti-ageing technologies will increase the most common age of death by one year per year between 2010 and 2030.
Dr Tuljapurkar then applied this scenario to four countries: the US, China, Sweden and India.
In the US the cost of social security and medical care would almost double if people retired at 65
He found that his projected trends in life expectancy would have profound effects on the economy, lifestyle and population demographics.
"It might be possible to go through two mortgages, for example, or even have 50-year or 75-year mortgages," Dr Tuljapurkar explained.
In the US, the cost of social security and medical care would almost double if people retired at 65 under Tuljapurkar's scenario.
But an increase in the retirement age to 85 would bring costs down to today's levels.
However these trends would also create a "permanent underclass" of countries where opportunities for increased life expectancy were not the same as in the industrialised world.
"We can't even get retrovirals to some countries now," he told journalists.
Not really...I've pretty much planned on that since I graduated college years ago. :o)
There was a time the average American only lived into their 50's. Today, and every day, we are being warned that absolutely everything from second-hand smoke, guns, SUV's, fast food, every chemical known to man and all things pleasurable, are killing us in record numbers.
The only way to save ourselves is to have more regulation, eat organic food and return to the horse and buggy days.
But people are living longer than ever before. And guess what? Most people who were born and lived thru the days of no regulation, are also living longer.
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Actaully, the first place I read that sentiment was here, and it is frequently repeated by young freepers.
An intellectually dishonest generalization if I ever heard one.
that will sure kill FICA if folks keep retiring in their early to mid 60s
Wait, I thought we were all going to die by 2050 from global warming.
Ping!
That would be insane. This guy obviously doesn't understand the concept of compounding and how it's exponential, not linear. You're much better off getting a 15 year mortgage and paying it off. Then you have almost the entire proceeds from the sale of your house to use as a downpayment for a new house. I just bought a new house and I'm paying a few hundred a month over what a 30 year would be, but I'll be much better off for it.
Indeed! As a Gen Xer, I have no retirement plans. I can't imagine how I could afford it after the bankrupcy of Social Security.
One day I'll be saying "Welcome to Walmart", next day I'll be in a casket.
.
I hope this is morbid sarcasm here...or you have ten kids.
Peter Gibbons: So I was sitting in my cubicle today, and I realized, ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that's on the worst day of my life.
Dr. Swanson: What about today? Is today the worst day of your life?
Peter Gibbons: Yeah.
Dr. Swanson: Wow, that's messed up.
Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social (and sometimes nostalgic) aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations (i.e. The Baby Boomers) are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.
Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.
Don't count your chickens before they hatch...
Don't bet the farm on it!
50% of the middle class has rationalized killing unborn children for the sake of convenience, so I'm betting that "Ma and Pa had a good life - I don't want them to suffer" will make better sense than having the underclass breaking into the house three nights a week.
Cynical? Yes, but realistic, I think.
For $2,000 you can build a fine 8 x 10 shack. As you save more money, add onto it. In 5 years you'll have 40 x 50 shack. No mortgage necessary.
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Absolutely right. Some of these so called "experts" are truly creatures of a media created dream. They have no concept of reality or real life even.
The underclass will try it anyway.
But changing welfare to "We'll support you and your fatherless kid for 5 years while you get job training -- but ONLY if you get permanently sterilized" will tend to eliminate the underclass problem within a generation
You know...planning is the whole key here. My grandfather screwed himself over regarding his pension (he was depending too much on SS) he never really planned ahead and seen more than 2 years into the future. My FIL, a carpenter for 30+ years with no other skills, a tired, achey and worn out body, and having to take an early retirement...did not plan ahead. I learned from their choices. I'm saving and socking away all I can, though I'm 31...even in 25 years, I don't want to burden my kids or my family...they will have it hard enough if things progress as they have progressed within the last 30 years (inflation, COL and all). I'll won't depend on the skillset I have for my current job. I'm going to have a couple other things I would be able to do in case job "1" ever went sour. Granted...I my be a little more type-A than most...and one really can't plan for everything, but at least having a plan of what you would do if you lost your current job, and saving for retirement, IMHO, could save alot of heartache, stress and other peoples money down the road.
I'll kill myself before I'll work until I'm 85.
They are giving our SSI to mental defectives and lazy people who sign up with mental health agencies. They buy cigarettes with it.
I drive these people to their appointments for a living. You'd be appalled. Once they spend their SSI on booze and liquor they are back in the hospital, and ultimately into my van.
But you and me don't get Social Security, maybe ever. That's why.
"However these trends would also create a "permanent underclass" of countries where opportunities for increased life expectancy were not the same as in the industrialised world"
I can hear the protests: We are "vampires" who are stealing life from third world countries.
I got a 30 year mortgage, but paid extra principal during a very prosperous long term consulting gig. This resulted in me having it fully paid off just before the recession, where I was out of work for a long time. Not having to worry about mortgage payments greatly reduced my stress level
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