Posted on 02/18/2006 7:25:29 AM PST by Paleo Conservative
The age of retirement should be raised to 85 by 2050 because of trends in life expectancy, a US biologist has said.
Shripad Tuljapurkar of Stanford University says anti-ageing advances could raise life expectancy by a year each year over the next two decades.
A longer life could mean a longer
working life
That will put a strain on economies around the world if current retirement ages are maintained, he warned.
He also told a science meeting in St Louis that 50-year or 75-year mortgages may not be unusual in the future.
Dr Tuljapurkar was speaking at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in the Missouri city.
"People are going to do things they didn't get round to in their working lives. Current institutions are really not equipped at the moment to deal with such long lives," Dr Tuljapurkar said.
"We are going to have to plan a lot more carefully, which people are not very good at."
Lifestyle trends
The Stanford researcher has been looking at relationships between historical trends in ageing, population growth and economic activity.
Based on this, he came up with a scenario in which anti-ageing technologies will increase the most common age of death by one year per year between 2010 and 2030.
Dr Tuljapurkar then applied this scenario to four countries: the US, China, Sweden and India.
In the US the cost of social security and medical care would almost double if people retired at 65
He found that his projected trends in life expectancy would have profound effects on the economy, lifestyle and population demographics.
"It might be possible to go through two mortgages, for example, or even have 50-year or 75-year mortgages," Dr Tuljapurkar explained.
In the US, the cost of social security and medical care would almost double if people retired at 65 under Tuljapurkar's scenario.
But an increase in the retirement age to 85 would bring costs down to today's levels.
However these trends would also create a "permanent underclass" of countries where opportunities for increased life expectancy were not the same as in the industrialised world.
"We can't even get retrovirals to some countries now," he told journalists.
I'm betting the Feds will make us "Solyent Gray". Good revenue stream for the SSA.
Will you still love me when I'm 85?
What about linking it to the life expectancy?
If we do it at 10 years before, the todays men would retire at 64 and women at 70.
If they live longer they would retire later. Than everyone would expect to have 10 years of retirement.
Ah ha, you understand!
One of the fundamental reasons why socialism fails.
The problem is that people just haven't ever been any good at predicting the future...and they're not likely to start getting good at it. And that probably includes Dr. Tuljapurkar.
Compare to life expectancy when SS was established in the 30s....
For $2,000 you can build a fine 8 x 10 shack. As you save more money, add onto it. In 5 years you'll have 40 x 50 shack. No mortgage necessary.
That would be great if we actually owned our property.
I'm betting that in 90% of the country code enforcement would knock down anything that didn't meet their standards.
In recent months we have witnessed several articles all making some bogus claim about life expectancy to rise to 150 or higher by the year 2050 or 2100.
The only problem with their projections is that they are using the same computer models that the global warming crowd uses to predict that temperatures will rise by 5 - 10 decgrees C in the next 50 - 100 years.
Still waiting for solid, scientific proof of any appreciable temperature rise. Not holding my breath for the life expectancy increase. I am also troubled that the claims of increased life expectancy make so prediction of vastly improved health at age 85 - only increased life expectancy. If I am 85 and in poor health and still expected to work - I think a lot of folks are going to be greatly disappointed - 'cause it ain't happenin'.
LOL!! Gray or green, same-o same-o.
Reminds me of the last time I renewed my, "privilege" to drive, license.
The clerk asked me if I wanted to donate my organs. I said sure, but be advised that I am using them all to their fullest.
I smoke cigarettes, pipes and cigars, drink alcohol, ogle good looking women, and will only agree to them being used in a person of the same qualities.
He said ... Do I take that to mean no? ;)
Some folks are sooooooo perceptive.
Wandered into a Sharper Image store the other day at a local mall. An older gentleman approached me and asked if he could help me, I happened, at the moment, to be standing near a display of upper end massage equipment when I said "Oh I'm just looking ... thanks". He then asked if I had ever tried the massage equipment picking an item up and demonstrating it for me. What a salesman; he went on to tell me about a great foot massager as well ... turns out he's 83 years old and married (to the same women) sixty four years. Long and short of it, I'm sold ... I'm taking my wife back later today to pick out a foot massager ...
Yes, that is what they are going to do. They won't pay your Social Security because there won't be enough money in the fund.
And we all know what a GREAT job he has done lately!
"The age of retirement should be raised to 85 by 2050 because of trends in life expectancy, a US biologist has said."
Well, aren't you special, Mr. Biologist. How about, let's just raise retirement age to 300, then we'll be guaranteed that no one will be around to collect benefits...
I think most members of the middle class, even middle class liberals, will choose to dump the welfare state rather than their own parents
And the difference between a 30 year and a 75 year mortgage is how much a month when you factor in a premium on the interest rate for long-term loan?
On $200,000 loan for 75 years at 6.75% the payment is $1,132. Same loan, 30 years at 6% is $1199-- difference of $67 per month.
Oy, now I'm feeling very tired. Thank goodness Monday is a holiday.
Happy President's day folks!
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