"What's black and blue and tenderized by 10,000 tons of rock and dirt?"
Posted on 12/29/2005 11:01:58 AM PST by billorites
Bin Laden has not been heard of since a December 27, 2004 audiotape in which he anointed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Iraq’s most wanted man, as Al Qaeda’s leader in the war-torn country
HE has not issued any public statement all year. Speculation has grown over his influence, health and even possible death. Where is the Western world’s most wanted man, Osama Bin Laden?
The Al Qaeda leader’s period of silence is the longest since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, offering no clues to the whereabouts or fate of a man who this year appears to have quietly slipped off the radar.
Bin Laden has not been heard of since a December 27, 2004 audiotape in which he anointed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Iraq’s most wanted man, as Al Qaeda’s leader in the war-torn country.
Just before, on December 16, 2004, a video surfaced where he also called on his fighters to strike Gulf oil supplies and warned Saudi leaders they risked a popular uprising.
Since then - silence. Regular interventions by Al Qaeda’s number two Ayman al-Zawahiri, seen as the ideological brains of the network, has only served to feed feverish speculation on what has happened to bin Laden. Zawahiri claimed in an videotape released in September that bin Laden was still alive and leading “jihad” or holy war against the West.
“Al Qaeda for holy war is still, thanks to God, a base for jihad. Its prince Osama Bin Laden, may God protect him, still leads the jihad,” said Zawahiri.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said recently he did not know whether Bin Laden was dead or alive, adding that he would not like to speculate over his fate.
The commander of US troops in Afghanistan, General Karl Eikenberry, has insisted that bin Laden was still considered alive, and that US forces continue their hunt for him. Seemingly more candid was CIA director Porter Goss, who recently told ABC news channel that Bin Laden’s hideout was known and implied that the CIA knew more than it could reveal.
US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, meanwhile, this week said he doubted that bin Laden was now capable of supervising the global operations of the militant organisation.
The total eclipse of bin Laden also gave rise to various speculation on Islamist websites, with some admirers of the terror chief already contemplating that he might be dead. “Bin Laden, tracked by the intelligence services who are on his heels, is hiding somewhere along the mountain frontiers between Pakistan and Afghanistan,” opined one blogger. Another claimed that “Abu Abdullah (bin Laden) has deliberately decided to stop all communications to avoid being located by gigantic US surveillance devices”. “O my beloved. I know that you are mortal. No body can oppose the will of God. But the thought of seeing you taken captive fills me with fear,” said another in a “letter of affection” addressed online to Bin Laden, following a rumour claiming that Al Qaeda chief had perished in the October 8 earthquake which ravaged Pakistan. But the editor of the Islamabad-based “Mediawatch”, Yaqoub McLintock, who is also an expert on Al Qaeda, appeared confident as to Bin Laden’s safety. “I think he is alive and well. Admittedly, Bin Laden is not in great health, but he is not at the point of death. All that we hear about his fate is nothing but media speculation. His death would certainly be announced by Al Qaeda, in conformity with Sharia (Islamic law),” he told AFP.
He also claimed that bin Laden avoids making any appearance “as a safety measure, knowing that he is being traced by intelligence services.” Abdul Bari Atwan, the editor-in-chief of the London-based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi, agreed. “Bin Laden has said it all and has nothing to add,” he said.
“The man could well be preparing a large-scale operation in the United States,” added Atwan, the first Arab journalist to interview bin Laden, who has a 25-million-dollar bounty on his head. “Dead or not? This is not the question,” said Yasser Sirri, the director of the London-based Islamic Observatory. “Admittedly, Bin Laden is a strategic symbol, but Al Qaeda is now a decentralised multi-national jihadist (movement) capable of generating thousands of bin Laden,” he said.
That's always been my theory, that the US knows where he is and is just using him to ID more jihadi-wanna-be's (and trace money, intel, etc)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/search/002-1307855-1731269?search-alias=aps&keywords=jawbreaker
Jawbreaker, the attack on Bin Laden and Al Queda: A Personal Account by the CIA's Key Field Commander, by Gary Berntsen and Ralph Pezzullo.
bill
All I can say is...we get yet another book to prop up the terrorists..most especially Bin Ladin if he is still alive..
I am sure that Amazon already has an order from him...in fact, he may have been the one to write the 5 STAR review that said he read it without one break..
I just love these people that will swear they knew/know exactly where Bin Ladin has been on occasion, but have never captured or killed him...
do you have a link? i'd like to see it... thanks
One of the most frequently asked questions we get at To The Point is: Where’s Osama? Why haven’t we found and killed him?
We’ve gotten another flurry because of the recent claims that “mercs” or mercenaries, “professional soldiers for paramilitary corporations that attend the annual Soldier of Fortune convention in Las Vegas” know where he is – a hidden valley called Dir in northwest Pakistan.
I’ve known Col. Bob Brown, the publisher of Soldier of Fortune magazine for almost 30 years. We almost got ourselves blown up together in Afghanistan with the Mujahaddin back in the 1980s. I told Bob about this claim and he laughed his head off.
“The last Soldier of Fortune convention we had was back in 2000,” he told me. “You should know, Wheeler, you were our keynote speaker! No one in the world is in touch with “mercs” more than me. They would have one simple word for these Elvis sightings of Osama: (expletive). The guy making this claim, Paul Williams, is an (expletive).” Bob doesn’t mince words.
The claim that OBL has been in Dir “since he escaped from Tora Bora in December 2001” is laughable. Williams has, of course, never been remotely close to the place. I’ve been all over the area, from Peshawar through Dir to Chitral in the Hindu Kush, and know it would be easy to get him if he’s there. He’s not in Dir.
Osama is in Iran.
I verified this once again at a lunch with some Pentagon friends yesterday (8/11). There is a reason why OBL’s whereabouts can’t be publicly acknowledged. It would necessitate military action against Iran. If the Mullahs have got him and won’t admit it and won’t give him up, the pressure for a military strike to kill or capture him would be irresistible.
The White House refuses to follow this course. It will not attack Iran. The country is a tinderbox, ready to blow with an anti-Mullah revolution. The Iranian people are amazingly pro-American right now. If the Mullahs hate America, that means they love America. A military attack could change that and fast. At least that’s the rationale.
This is also why GW won’t order an attack on Iran’s nuke facilities.
Not that the CIA is helping to organize or precipitate such a revolution, has the capacity to do so, and is doing anything beyond crossing its fingers and hoping. Nonetheless, you wanted to know what the deal is with Osama – and there it is. He’s safe and sound in eastern Iran, perhaps in the vicinity of the town of Mashad, but they move him around. And we’re not doing anything about it.
We must have. Come to think of it, we never caught Hitler or Mussolini, either. It's weird thinking the Axis won, but it must be so.
thank you , i appreciate it
UBL is very much alive and being hunted by brave warriors 24/7 deep in Indian Country. You do not hear about 99% of this continuous hunt.
He's very much alive just as our a dozen or so other HVT's we are very much after in the Afghan/Pak border regions. And everyone from the CIC to the NCO's hunting their as$es are aware of this reality.
UBL is most likely North of Peshawar - In the NW Frontier or maybe in Kashmir (an area that is off limits to outsiders and home to numerous Kashmiri militant groups, some of which are deeply intertwined with al-Qaeda.)
Capturing UBL in the NW Frontier is such an extremely difficult task most just can't comprehend. We are talking roughly 40,000 square miles of the most rugged terrain on earth! - Furthermore the Afghan / Pakistan border stretches 1,500 miles—roughly the distance from Washington, D.C., to Denver (just to get a clue).
Throughout the NW Frontier (and South toward Baluchistan) Pashtun tribes are completely in control. A group of warlords who are autonomous from any centralized Gov't - Pakistan troops (Gov't troops) haven't controlled these areas in about for the last 70 years -
Again the terrain in this region of the world is some of the most brutal on earth -Making any sustained operations a complete nightmare. Not to mention having to conduct any of these operations completely in the "black" (for a variety of reasons). And not just because we don't want other Nations to know....but because our operators stick out like a sore thumb in this part of the World.
The fact is Zarqawi continues to remain alive and free in Iraq - Yet there we have over 155,000 U.S. Soldiers, control of 90% + of the Country, the majority support of the people of Iraq who have twice voted for freedom and Intel sources that far out value what we have in the border regions of Pak/Stan -
In Stan we have less then 19,000 U.S. Soldiers, where only a fraction of those are actually near the border regions and even a smaller fraction of those can operate effectively there for sustained periods.
The key to bagging Zarqawi (in Iraq) is to continue to shorten our OODA loop (which we are doing) - The key to UBL in stan is the same (to a lesser degree) but more importantly waiting on that one piece of HUMIT that gives him away - Then put our shooters on that location stat -
As for videos / communications? - UBL is much more concerned with staying alive then with putting out propaganda - Additionally how do you know he hasn't "tried" to put out more then the MSM and public are aware of? - These type items recovered "in transit" are not the types of materials we release to the press -
Furthermore why UBL may not put out frequent tapes is the obvious - There is a clear vulnerability to releasing audio and video tapes - That being the custody chain of these tapes could be traced back if snatched somewhere along the way (which has happened).
UBL remains alive and eking out a survival...but we'll nail his as$ one of these days -
Without a doubt that day is long over due -
Additionally UBL is not in Iran - He is most likely in the NW Frontier of PAK - (possibly moving into Kashmir)
UBL has never put himself at the mercy of a centralized Gov't (of which Iran exactly is). Nor does UBL bring any benefit to Iran for housing him. Other then an assured U.S. military strike with the full backing of the American public. Which is exactly the last thing Iran wants or needs.
Furthermore UBL doesn't need Iran for security. The border regions of Afghan, Pak, China and India provide that security for him with a much more loyal following.
Good god, you just can't make this stuff up!
The Iranians are MUSLIMS. Americans are (by and large) CHRISTIAN. Research the difference!
Rent "Not Without My Daughter" to see what Iran is like. The only reason an Iranian would have to like the USA is if we had the power (which we do) to do their own dirty work they should have done ages ago. They got their "revolution" in 1979. Deal with it.
Zawahiri is experiencing the same difficulties you have pointed out and yet Zawahiri has managed to make and have tapes broadcast.
You and I have have similar discussions in the past. There is wide spectrum between alive and dead. I don't believe bin Laden is dead, but I did find it intriguing that Zawahiri in one of his latest tapes went out of his way to state that bin Laden is alive.(One could view this as a psyop type statement.) Between alive and dead there is illness, coma, imprisonment or rendered silent by force.
I tend to agree with some informed people who believe Zawahiri is the operational brain of al Qaeda and bin Laden is "spiritual" leader of the movement. Bin Laden's role has been to spread the gospel to hopefully recruit new members. Bin Laden's silence seems to render his most important functions meaningless. That is why I think bin Laden's silence has some deeper implications.
As to bin Laden's whereabouts, I assume, like you, that he is in Pakistan along the border. However, after much thought, I don't think he is hiding in a cave, but in a small village large enough to obscure the necessry provisioning of his contigent which I have to assume is more than five people. The use of couriers and supply support in a remote cave would attract more attention is such a setting than in a village of some size.
Only in the sense of him having to be aware of our desire to back track his communications. There are a variety of reasons why his task of producing such communications might be made easier. Surviving in different location from UBL would be a starter.
That is why I think bin Laden's silence has some deeper implications.
Two points. 1. You keep assuming he has been quiet for the past year. Why, do you think you know this for certain? Do you really believe the MSM knows all? They don't. 2. There are too many who love to think big deep thoughts as to the "why" of way to many questions. UBL being silent and Zawahiri communicating more often may simply be the reality of convenience. Nothing more or less. Remember there is nothing more complex then avoiding the obvious. Big deep thinkers with time on their hands hate that reality.
As to bin Laden's whereabouts, I assume, like you, that he is in Pakistan along the border. However, after much thought, I don't think he is hiding in a cave, but in a small village large enough to obscure the necessry provisioning of his contigent which I have to assume is more than five people.
Of course he doesn't have to survive in a "cave" per say 365 days a year. There are plenty of small / medium size villages throughout the Afghan / Pak border regions.
The fact is we continue to try and find / wait on that one piece of SIGNIT or HUMIT that is going to allow us to put guns on him. Trying to do that without conducting larger scale Operations in the Pak border regions makes that task incredibly difficult to the point of impossible in the short term (why he remains free). Though in the longer run we are slowly encircling him.
Pakistan must do more. But Musharraf is in a very complex situation and in many ways has done a very good job. In some other ways he hasn't done as much as we would like.
Best regards,
Only in the sense of him having to be aware of our desire to back track his communications. There are a variety of reasons why his task of producing such communications might be made easier. Surviving in different location from UBL would be a starter.
That is why I think bin Laden's silence has some deeper implications.
Two points. 1. You keep assuming he has been quiet for the past year. Why, do you think you know this for certain? Do you really believe the MSM knows all? They don't. 2. There are too many who love to think big deep thoughts as to the "why" of way to many questions. UBL being silent and Zawahiri communicating more often may simply be the reality of convenience. Nothing more or less. Remember there is nothing more complex then avoiding the obvious. Big deep thinkers with time on their hands hate that reality.
As to bin Laden's whereabouts, I assume, like you, that he is in Pakistan along the border. However, after much thought, I don't think he is hiding in a cave, but in a small village large enough to obscure the necessry provisioning of his contigent which I have to assume is more than five people.
Of course he doesn't have to survive in a "cave" per say 365 days a year. There are plenty of small / medium size villages throughout the Afghan / Pak border regions.
The fact is we continue to try and find / wait on that one piece of SIGNIT or HUMIT that is going to allow us to put guns on him. Trying to do that without conducting larger scale Operations in the Pak border regions makes that task incredibly difficult to the point of impossible in the short term (why he remains free). Though in the longer run we are slowly encircling him.
Pakistan must do more. But Musharraf is in a very complex situation and in many ways has done a very good job. In some other ways he hasn't done as much as we would like.
Best regards,
See post #91 -
He's, quite frankly, intelligent enough to know when to go to cover....that's it, plain and simple.
Lack of videos, audios, memos, bla-bla is hardly proof of his demise - except to the "TV generation"
Bin Laggin Al Summer
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