UBL is very much alive and being hunted by brave warriors 24/7 deep in Indian Country. You do not hear about 99% of this continuous hunt.
He's very much alive just as our a dozen or so other HVT's we are very much after in the Afghan/Pak border regions. And everyone from the CIC to the NCO's hunting their as$es are aware of this reality.
UBL is most likely North of Peshawar - In the NW Frontier or maybe in Kashmir (an area that is off limits to outsiders and home to numerous Kashmiri militant groups, some of which are deeply intertwined with al-Qaeda.)
Capturing UBL in the NW Frontier is such an extremely difficult task most just can't comprehend. We are talking roughly 40,000 square miles of the most rugged terrain on earth! - Furthermore the Afghan / Pakistan border stretches 1,500 miles—roughly the distance from Washington, D.C., to Denver (just to get a clue).
Throughout the NW Frontier (and South toward Baluchistan) Pashtun tribes are completely in control. A group of warlords who are autonomous from any centralized Gov't - Pakistan troops (Gov't troops) haven't controlled these areas in about for the last 70 years -
Again the terrain in this region of the world is some of the most brutal on earth -Making any sustained operations a complete nightmare. Not to mention having to conduct any of these operations completely in the "black" (for a variety of reasons). And not just because we don't want other Nations to know....but because our operators stick out like a sore thumb in this part of the World.
The fact is Zarqawi continues to remain alive and free in Iraq - Yet there we have over 155,000 U.S. Soldiers, control of 90% + of the Country, the majority support of the people of Iraq who have twice voted for freedom and Intel sources that far out value what we have in the border regions of Pak/Stan -
In Stan we have less then 19,000 U.S. Soldiers, where only a fraction of those are actually near the border regions and even a smaller fraction of those can operate effectively there for sustained periods.
The key to bagging Zarqawi (in Iraq) is to continue to shorten our OODA loop (which we are doing) - The key to UBL in stan is the same (to a lesser degree) but more importantly waiting on that one piece of HUMIT that gives him away - Then put our shooters on that location stat -
As for videos / communications? - UBL is much more concerned with staying alive then with putting out propaganda - Additionally how do you know he hasn't "tried" to put out more then the MSM and public are aware of? - These type items recovered "in transit" are not the types of materials we release to the press -
Furthermore why UBL may not put out frequent tapes is the obvious - There is a clear vulnerability to releasing audio and video tapes - That being the custody chain of these tapes could be traced back if snatched somewhere along the way (which has happened).
UBL remains alive and eking out a survival...but we'll nail his as$ one of these days -
Without a doubt that day is long over due -
Zawahiri is experiencing the same difficulties you have pointed out and yet Zawahiri has managed to make and have tapes broadcast.
You and I have have similar discussions in the past. There is wide spectrum between alive and dead. I don't believe bin Laden is dead, but I did find it intriguing that Zawahiri in one of his latest tapes went out of his way to state that bin Laden is alive.(One could view this as a psyop type statement.) Between alive and dead there is illness, coma, imprisonment or rendered silent by force.
I tend to agree with some informed people who believe Zawahiri is the operational brain of al Qaeda and bin Laden is "spiritual" leader of the movement. Bin Laden's role has been to spread the gospel to hopefully recruit new members. Bin Laden's silence seems to render his most important functions meaningless. That is why I think bin Laden's silence has some deeper implications.
As to bin Laden's whereabouts, I assume, like you, that he is in Pakistan along the border. However, after much thought, I don't think he is hiding in a cave, but in a small village large enough to obscure the necessry provisioning of his contigent which I have to assume is more than five people. The use of couriers and supply support in a remote cave would attract more attention is such a setting than in a village of some size.