Maine Democrat Gov has one of lowest approval ratings

Baldacci rating among lowest in U.S. Thursday, December 22, 2005 - Bangor Daily News << Back

AUGUSTA - Gov. John E. Baldacci's favorability rating continued to trend downward this week in a poll that ranked the Democratic politician 44th nationally in terms of voter approval.

In fact, the SurveyUSA poll compiled numbers that placed Baldacci's favorability rating below President Bush and only slightly above embattled Republican California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Kathleen Blanco, the Democratic governor of storm-ravaged Louisiana.

Gov. Bob Taft, R-Ohio, placed 50th nationally in the survey with an 80 percent disapproval rating. He was recently convicted on state criminal ethics charges and is now under federal indictment, accused of engaging in illegal fundraising for President Bush.

On the other end of the scale, Republican Gov. Jodi Rell of Connecticut held the highest approval rating at 77 percent, closely followed by the governors of North Dakota and South Dakota.

With 59 percent disapproval and 36 percent approval, Baldacci wound up tying for 44th place with Gov. Matt Blunt, a Missouri Republican who has come under fire for pandering to lobbyists, weakening state worker's compensation laws and drawing lawsuits alleging violations of the state constitution.

Not surprisingly, Baldacci's office was unimpressed Wednesday with the SurveyUSA results and maintained their own polling gave the governor higher numbers.

"We don't feel that this is a credible poll because we don't know who is responding to the computerized questions," said Crystal Canney, the governor's communications director. "I can tell you that in actual meetings with people this week in Hancock and Oxford counties, he's been talking about the Dirigo [health program] and heating [fuel shortages]. He's just received an incredible response. If we were going to take anecdotal stuff and create a poll out of it based on those meetings, I would give him [an approval] rating of 95 to 100."

The poll was conducted between Dec. 9 and Dec. 11 and surveyed 600 adults statewide. It carried a reported margin of error of 4 percent.

The SurveyUSA poll has its share of critics who maintain the poll's methodology of relying on computer-programmed questions delivered through random telephone interviews undermines the survey's credibility.

But Survey USA counters that its polling is more than a snapshot in time and one independent analysis of the company places it among the most accurate surveyors in the country.

In 2004, Polipundit.com gave SurveyUSA a No. 1 ranking for predicting the correct outcome in 29 of 30 states. The company's services have been used in the past by the Bangor Daily News, WCSH-TV6 in Portland and WLBZ-TV2 in Bangor.

The most recent SurveyUSA poll shows Baldacci breaking the trend that kept him in the mid-50s level of approval since May by pushing him closer to the 60 percent mark.

In November, the same polling company had Baldacci at 40 percent approval, 57 percent disapproval and 3 percent unsure. Those numbers moved this month to 36 percent approval, 59 percent disapproval and about 5 percent unsure.

Other interesting aspects of the survey showed Baldacci with higher negatives in northern Maine, a region he once represented as a 2nd Congressional District congressman.

The survey also showed a significant movement among Maine's large independent or unenrolled voter block with 62 percent disapproving of Baldacci's performance. The response amounted to a 7 percent increase in unfavorability in little more than a month.

Republicans were quick to seize upon the survey's conclusion saying the results reflected a trend that would continue through next year when Mainers go to the polls to choose a governor.

"This is simply a reaction to economic issues, the rising cost of health care, and quite frankly [Baldacci's] inability to deliver on real income and property tax reductions," said Mike Leavitt, executive director of the Maine Republican Party. "He's failed to lead on those issues which are on the minds of Maine people."

Pat Colwell, chairman of the Maine Democratic Party, argued many governors across the country had actually dipped in approval over the last several months - regardless of their political affiliation.

"I think that when you look at that, you've got to say that it's the policies of the Bush administration and the lack of help from Washington back to the states - in effect the broken promises to the states - that is bringing a lot of tough decisions back to the sitting governors and their legislatures," Colwell said. "So I guess I'm not surprised that sitting governors' numbers might be down."

MaryEllen FitzGerald of Critical Insights polling in Portland said the SurveyUSA poll reinforced surveys taken by her firm reflecting low favorability ratings she had documented in earlier Baldacci polls.

Still, FitzGerald emphasized no one should place too much emphasis on polls that attempt to determine approval or disapproval.

"Favorability can change pretty quickly and this is a tough time for the state," she said. "When you're the governor, you take a lot of the heat."

(This was posted back in May:)

Maine: Governor's rating down in survey

AUGUSTA — Gov. John E. Baldacci’s job approval rating plunged over the cliff this week, according to a New Jersey-based polling organization’s state-by-state comparison of chief executives.

Although nearly 70 percent of respondents approved of his job performance in a February poll, according to one Maine pollster, Baldacci’s approval rating plummeted to 37 percent over the weekend, according to SurveyUSA, one of the country’s largest computerized polling companies.

A subsidiary of Hypotenuse Inc. of Verona, N.J., SurveyUSA conducts numerous “bullet polls” for 50 television stations across the country, including WLBZ-TV Channel 2 in Bangor and WCSH-TV Channel 6 in Portland.
On the second floor of the State House, the governor’s office was taking the news in stride Wednesday.
“Polls come and go,” said Lynn Kippax, spokesman for the governor. “The governor’s worked hard for Maine and he believes the people know that.”

The poll was conducted last Friday through Sunday by a computerized calling system that randomly sampled 600 adults. Information at the firm’s Web site indicated the poll had a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

Fifty-two percent of those polled were women. Twenty-seven percent were ages 18 to 34, 42 percent were 35 to 54, and the remainder were 55 or older. Ninety-seven percent of the respondents described themselves as Caucasians. Politically, 29 percent were Republicans, 30 percent were Democrats, and 40 percent were not enrolled in a party. One percent were not sure of their political affiliation. The results were posted at www.ksdk.com/news/governor_ranking.aspx .

Respondents were asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Baldacci is doing as governor?” Thirty-seven percent of those questioned said they approved, 55 percent said they disapproved, and 9 percent were unsure. (Percentages don’t add up to 100 because of rounding.)

Maine’s Democratic governor received the lowest approval rating of all New England governors and ranked 39th in the country, according to the survey. North Dakota’s Gov. John Hoeven received the highest approval rating at 71 percent, and Ohio Gov. Bob Taft received the lowest at 19 percent. The average approval rating in the survey was 48 percent.

The poll was taken in the aftermath of intense debates at the State House over a $5.7 billion state budget that was narrowly approved in a party-line vote by majority Democrats. The budget is balanced in part by language authorizing a loan of up to $450 million, to pay down debt on the state retirement system, provide $250 million in additional education funds to municipalities and bolster the state’s budget stabilization fund.

Republicans at the State House argued the Democratic budget should rely more on spending cuts than borrowing. They since have staged a counterattack by promoting a signature-gathering effort to place the borrowing component of the budget issue on the ballot in November in the form of a people’s veto. Meanwhile, the people’s veto and the budget borrowing plan are both factors that representatives of Wall Street bonding houses said could nudge the state’s bond rating downward this year.

Not surprisingly, Republicans on Wednesday were quick to seize upon the poll results, which they perceived as a harbinger of the 2006 election cycle and Baldacci’s bid for a second term.

“These poll numbers seem to reflect what we have been hearing from voters across the state, who are very much aware of the governor’s lack of leadership on the issues that are most important to them, namely: the size of the state budget and the $450 million borrowing proposal,” said Randy Bumps, the GOP state chairman. “Those are the issues that resonate with them.”

Even Pat Colwell, the state chairman of the Maine Democratic Party, had to admit the governor’s numbers had “probably dropped” in the heat of the vigorous budget debate at the State House. But he doubted Baldacci could have fallen to the depths indicated by the SurveyUSA poll.

“These bullet polls are notorious for being inaccurate,” he said. ``It is just a snapshot. When you’re in a position like the governor of the state of Maine and you have to make tough decisions to move our state forward, I think there will always be folks working against you. But I also think people in Maine trust John Baldacci and know he’s been growing jobs, investing in education and keeping his promises.”

Some pollsters in Maine also were skeptical of the SurveyUSA results. Patrick Murphy at Strategic Marketing Services in Portland released a poll in February that placed Baldacci’s job approval rating at 67.5 percent. Murphy questioned the methodology used in computerized telephone polling, saying, “I cannot fathom that kind of a drop” in Baldacci’s approval ratings.

Kevin Fay, at Critical Insights in Portland, shared similar concerns about the reliability of computer-based polling techniques and also found it hard to believe the governor’s approval rating could have taken such a dive.
“That’s the kind of thing you might expect if the state’s bond rating dropped to junk and there was complete gridlock over property tax reform and that basically nothing was working right,” Fay said.

Amy Fried, a political science professor at the University of Maine, said it was important to cross-reference the poll’s findings with any other existing surveys given the wide disparity in results over the four-month period. She added the Mother’s Day weekend also could have skewed the results.

“There’s some polling firms that won’t do polling over a big holiday because they can’t find a lot of folks,” she said.
Jay Levee, an editor with SurveyUSA, said the voice used to ask the questions in Maine belonged to Pat Callaghan, a news anchorman at WCSH-TV in Portland. He defended his firm’s 12-year history in Maine and encouraged Internet users to visit the company’s site at www.surveyusa.com .

“People can make conjecture about the results, but the reality is our track record is unsurpassed,” Levee said.

Baldacci criticized for Castro visit
Wednesday, December 14, 2005 - Bangor Daily News

PORTLAND - Maine Gov. John E. Baldacci and his staff swapped agricultural anecdotes with Cuban dictator Fidel Castro this weekend while closing a $20 million trade deal with the Marxist regime. The visit with Castro has drawn criticism from some state lawmakers.

Arriving Tuesday morning at the Portland Jetport from Montreal, the governor said agriculture was the only topic broached during his meeting with Castro, who served as Cuba's premier from 1959 until 1976 and has since assumed the title of president.

"He wanted to know how Maine dairy cows had produced versus the Pennsylvania cows that had gone there before and which was able to produce the most volume and content," Baldacci said. "It was a very detailed agricultural discussion which former Agriculture Commissioner [Robert] Spear and he engaged in for about 20 minutes."

The United States government broke diplomatic relations with Cuba in 1959 and has maintained a mission in Havana since 1977. The U.S. allows food to be sold directly to the country on a cash basis, but continues to ban Cuban exports.

Maine's Democratic governor said he was aware his visit to Cuba might be perceived as controversial by some, given that government's harsh treatment of dissidents and political opponents.

In its 2005 report, Amnesty International maintained dissidents are routinely threatened, harassed, detained and imprisoned. Castro has barred Amnesty International representatives from the country for the last 17 years.

Baldacci's visit followed the observance of International Human Rights Day on Saturday in Cuba, where wives of imprisoned political prisoners, known as the Ladies in White, joined leading Cuban dissidents who claimed government repression worsened in 2005.

In a Saturday interview with Reuters news service, U.S. mission chief Michael Parmly said Castro was targeting political opponents by dispatching mobs of government supporters to demonstrate outside their homes.

The Havana-based American diplomat described the strategy as a "particularly disgusting" practice that recalled Nazi brownshirts or the Ku Klux Klan.

Human rights violations, however, were not even on Baldacci's radar screen when his plane touched down in Havana. The governor said he was there to do anything he could to bolster Maine's economy.

"As governor of the state of Maine and having businesses that depend on this and being allowed under federal law and being monitored and scrutinized very closely and [with] 37 other states doing the same thing, I thought it was important to be there to support those businesses," Baldacci said. "It had been [Maine's] third mission and [businessmen and the department representatives] had told me, 'Governor, we need you in order to raise the visibility of the Maine delegation so we can get contracts and business.' (The trip) greatly exceeded the expectations, doubling what had originally been the contract price at the beginning."

Despite the fact that the trade mission will benefit numerous Maine industries and businesses, including apple and potato growers and dairy cattle farmers, Baldacci's trip to the communist country was assailed by Republican legislative leaders who claimed the governor's Havana stop amounted to "political grandstanding."

"There was no reason for him to fly all the way down there at taxpayers' expense other than political grandstanding and posturing and to embarrass President Bush," said House Republican leader David Bowles of Sanford in a prepared statement. "It worries me that he's willing to meet with communist rulers who have absolutely no regard for human rights. If trade is the goal, why not go to friendly countries? Also, I question why the governor is spending so much time traveling when we have tremendous problems here in Maine with health insurance costs and other serious issues."

Sen. Paul Davis of Sangerville, leader of Senate Republicans, insisted Maine farmers could have still received the benefits of the trade agreements without Baldacci allowing himself to "become a propaganda tool against our own government."

"People have died trying to escape Castro's Cuba," Davis said. "People are in prison there for disagreeing with his policies. Yet our governor thinks it is important for him to show the world that Maine is willing to hold hands with Fidel. He could have helped the farmers just as much by helping us lower the tax burden they face year after year."

Crystal Canney, communications director for Baldacci, said the Cuba trip had "everything to do with Maine's economy and nothing to do with politics."

Baldacci said earlier that another Cuban trade mission could be on the state's agenda in April.

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