Posted on 10/28/2005 11:48:58 AM PDT by RWR8189
October 28, 2005--For the first time this year, Tim Kaine has moved ahead of Jerry Kilgore in a Rasmussen Reports election poll.
Kaine, the Democrat, now earns 46% of the vote while Kilgore attracts 44% in the race to be Virginia's next Governor. State Senator Russell Potts attracts 4% of the vote, up from 2% a week ago.
While Kaine now has a two point advantage, the race remains too close to call. The survey's margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.
In the previous Rasmussen Reports election poll, Kilgore had a two percentage point advantage, 46% to 44%. In late September, the two leading candidates were tied at 45%.
This is the third straight 2005 Virginia election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for either major party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up question.
Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a one-point edge, 42% to 41%, over Jerry Kilgore.
Both men now earn more than 80% of the votes from within their own party. Kaine has a 14% advantage among those not affiliated with either major party.
In six of the last eight Rasmussen Reports election polls in Virginia, Jerry Kilgore has attracted between 44% and 46% of the vote. One he was a point above that range, and once a point below.
In the last four Virginia election polls, Kaine has been in that same range (44% to 46%) every time. However, in the preceding four polls, he was in the 39% to 41% range.
Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by 56% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 38%. For Kaine, the numbers are 62% favorable and 34% unfavorable. These numbers highlight a huge difference between the Virginia election and this year's contest in New Jersey. In the New Jersey race, neither candidate is viewed favorably by more than 41% of voters.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as Governor. Fifty-one percent ( 51%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That figure is well above his national Job Approval rating.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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Election 2005 Virginia Governor |
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| Kilgore | Kaine | |
| October 27 | 44% | 46% |
| October 20 | 48% | 46% |
| October 11 | 46% | 44% |
| Sept. 28 | 45% | 45% |
| Sept 14 | 43% | 40% |
| August 3 | 45% | 39% |
| July 12 | 47% | 41% |
| June 15 | 46% | 40% |
PVC effect?
Within the margin of error, no real news here -- still a tie ballgame.
A 4 point drop? What the heck?
I hope you are right. Kaine would be a disaster. Among others, he considers all capital punishment to be unconstitutional.
I would bet that the actual result is very close to whatever Rasmussen's final poll is.
His stellar performance in 2004 gave me a lot of confidence in his polling methods.
Anyone in Virginia or nearby not already helping, please do. Time to win this race.
Zogby has it
Kilgore 45%
Kaine 39%
Potts 4%
When was that taken, could you give links for it?
Zogby also said Kerry had 311 electoral votes in the bag.
I take anything that man says with a grain of salt.
If you want accurate state polling turn to Battleground, Mason Dixon and Rass.
Zogby blew 2004.
Does Battleground do state polling?
With Kilgore and Kaine essentially tied, holding their own party in place, and Kaine with a big lead among Independents, there has to be a big Republican advantage in the sample. An advantage that reflects Virginia's electorate, but still.
Tie game, no one knows what will happen. A blowout by either candidate is very unlikely. Kaine is not that unacceptable to most Virginians, rightly or wrongly.
Zogby blew 2004.
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Zogby is a Democrat at tends to squew his own polls in favor of Democrat candidates as he did in the 2004 elections.
Kilgore has only himself to blame if he loses. He has alienated alot of Republicans in Virginia.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20051025-101031-2578r.htm
Good editorial. Kilgore, Kaine and Illegals on illegal immigration.
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