Posted on 09/26/2005 3:45:47 PM PDT by chaos theory
Can Iraq's Policy Affect the US$ and Euro? Iraq decided to no longer accept dollars for oil... what do you think will be the effect on the greenback and on the Euro?"
The burning question in cyber-space today is "Will this policy be limited to just Iraq?"
In my opinion, we will see the dollar having to bid for Euro's instead of oil directly. That will reverse the current Euro-Dollar relationship. It will create a high demand for Euro's causing a higher Euro valuation; the dollar will significantly devalue against the Euro by 30% or more. Also, since the Euro is market-aligned with gold, which represents 15% of its current value, the price of gold will also rise in dollars and Euro's, but much more so in dollars -- probably above $600+ per ounce or more. As gold changes in value, so too will the Euro. Gold will become a proportionately higher (or lower, since gold is marked to market value against the Euro quarterly) percentage of backing for the Euro as gold rises (or lowers).
The current Goldgate derivatives fiasco in paper gold contracts (see www.gata.org) has the potential to blow the roof off of the gold price. Were that to happen, the Euro, because of its market tie-in with gold prices and low external debt, would find itself strongly backed by gold and when marked to the market price of gold would strongly devalue the dollar to a potentially devastating 50% or less of its current value. Combining these two factors, you have a replacement world reserve currency in the making.
It is possible that other oil countries could follow Iraq's lead by allowing payment in Dollars or Euro's for oil. This dual payment system would, of course, be too attractive for European countries to pass up and would therefore open the door to significant dollar holdings being converted to Euro's. Eventually, this would lead to the Euro as becoming the preferred choice in oil payment currency because the currency value is earmarked to gold's market value and would represent a less inflationary and stronger long-term value to the oil interests.
All the pieces would seem to be in place for this seemingly minor payment acceptance decision, yet the impact on the Euro, gold, oil, and dollar prices would rock the world. It would cause a rush to the exits away from the dollar to the Euro. No wonder, then, the Bank of England, the ESF, and bullion banks want to keep a lid on the price of gold (see GATA link above). For a significant rise in the price of gold or oil in dollar terms would only tend to exacerbate this significant shift in currencies -- it would become just too good (for oil interests) to pass up.
This would also reverse the trade deficit for the US, as a devalued currency would make US-made products much more attractive in world Euro-based markets. Its effects in the US would be to cause a rush to Euro-based investments and obviously cause the US stock market bubble to create a whooshing sound as dollars are moved into Euro-based stock markets and precious metals too. Just look currently at how the recent Intel and Kodak profit announcements have effected the higher Price/Earning ratios of these two companies -- a one-hour 30% downward adjustment. The US equity markets are just too high in their average P/E's and we would see a quick erosion of the average PE to a more traditional and conservative level but not before an overswing occurred in the opposite direction. It is easy to see why the US has held a strong-dollar policy and would appear to be pulling the stops out in order to protect that policy.
It is gold's hidden agenda as a currency that has caused the gold investors plight of late. [It is true -- all currencies are based on the price of gold, especially the dollar (and now the Euro). This is not a G7 official position but one would have to lack intelligence to not see the relationship gold holds with all world currencies. It is the only commodity held in quantity by world central banks -- 32,000 tons to be more precise. This reservoir of gold is much like a holding tank or overflow tank in a closed liquid system with big leaks. The banks can use their stash to stabilize the system until the loss of gold is too rapid and the system needs more gold because the reservoir can't (or won't) keep up -- such is the case today]. The dollar-based countries (either by backing or by trade) have had to protect the dollar by holding back the price of gold, especially since the Euro is market bound to gold. Any strong rise in the price of gold would make the Euro a very strong and desirable currency. It seems that this chess match is much too far along and the dollar is now trapped in playing it until the end, but has lost far too many pieces and is now in a defensive game with apparently no way out.
When looked at in this perspective, one cannot blame the dollar camp for its strong dollar policy and all the alleged manipulations and shenanigans in the gold market -- the soft landing of the stock market seems to be but a small piece of a larger looming landslide of derived-dollar problems as they pertain to gold and to a strong competitive currency: the Euro. A strong dollar and a gold price above $290 cannot exist in the same Universe, much like the famed question and answer in the "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" series by Douglas Adams. As in the series, should the question and answer or in this case, strong gold and strong dollar, find themselves in the same Universe, this would cause major havoc. It is an impossible formula and no matter how much a goldbug or Euro-watcher would want it, one or the other must give first. For now, gold is loosing the battle. Yet, the mere existence of a Euro currency backed by 11-strong nations, creates a major conduit for funds that seems quite compelling for oil sellers and purchasers. A dual oil payment system is such an easy policy change to make, but one with major ramifications. When looked at in this perspective, one must admire (but not necessarily like) the beauty of moves that has brought us to here. Like it or not, it sure does explain a whole lot, eh?
Steve Hickel
29 September 2000
It's an old anti-Semitic accusation --- that Jews are more loyal to Israel than to U.S. and being so "smart" trick such simpletons as Ramsfeld, Rice, Chaney...
The same was leveled against Catholics for centuries: they were expected to be more loyal to Vatican and betray this country in a heartbeat. All this is bigotry and garbage, and an old one at that. Why would one want to read racist garbage?
It is not only possible, it is now likely. Iran has announced it will open an oil bourse in the coming months, with payment in Euros accepted. The significance of this for geopolitics cannot be overstated. The dollar enjoys its status as the world's reserve currency because currently evey nation has to exchange its currency for dollars to buy oil. This creates an artificial demand for dollars. That demand helps to prop the dollar up.
China, Russia, and to a lesser extent, Europe, all want this to change. Some Arab nations also want it to change, because as the situation now stands they collect barrels of dollars, which puts their capital at risk should the dollar fall. It did fall for three years in a row, prompting folks like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates to convert millions of dollars to other investments. Then the dollar strengthened, for several reasons.
With the administration vowing to spend billions on the gulf coast; with a trade deficit of 600-700 billion; with a federal deficit previously projected in the 300-400 billion range; with an American savings rate that is now negative; with Americans borrowing 2.7-3 billion per day, which is about 80% of the rest of the world's savings, the dollar will almost certainly begin to fall again. Any conservative who does not plan accordingly is abnegating financial responsibility to himself and his family.
Foreign central banks, who buy about half of U.S. debt, have indicated their unwillingness to continue buying massive amounts of that debt. Government data show those banks are following through on those statements. The slack is currently being picked up by institutions in the Carribean, and Lord only knows where those folks are coming up with that kind of dough. With no domestic savings to fund increased deficit spending, the Fed likely will be forced to monetize that debt. That means printing more money. The fed will have to counter this inflationary action by continuing on its rate raisng venture to maintain a strong dollar. This means higher interest rates, with a corresponding rise in ARMs, which account for over 30% of home mortgages in the past year or so, 40% or more in areas where real estate has entered the bubble stage. As marginal homeowners get squeezed, they find themselves up against the new bankruptcy law, which raises their monthly credit card payment. In this environment we will find out whether the stock market is overvalued or not, and gold and silver or undervalued or not.
"Who has as much superfluous punctuation as the Q'u'a'r'a'n?"
BZZZT! New Rule on FR: Trolls can't use the term "neocon" unless they can define it. Than we ZOT you anyway.
neocon is nocoen spelled backwards
The burning question in cyber-space today is "Will this policy be limited to just Iraq?"
We'll find out after the Iranian oil bourse opens. Or maybe before.
By the way, if you like coffee it is past time to stock up. Almost all imports come/came through the port of New Orleans. No new deliveries for the foreseeable future.
Ahhh, THAT explains it! Sounds anti-Semitic to me.
Maybe this is why they always refer to themselves as "evissergorP" lately.
Have you noticed that they never use the word "larebiL" any more when they (often) talk about themselves?
;o)
This is one of the few parts of the article I disagree with. Nearly all our manufacturing base has been exported to Asia. I looked at a box of nails the other day while mending something. "Made in China." My son's bike: "Made in China." Shower curtain: "Made in China." Motherboard: "Made in China." etc. We don't make anything to export. Wedding planners? Personal trainers? Karate instructors? I don't think so. When the dolllar falls all our base are belong to the exporters. Cause we don't make it here anymore.
Interested to see what nonsense follows.
"Why would one want to read racist garbage?"
I read the Ron Paul article just so that I could point out the flaws in his rationale. It really is disgusting how so many liberals and paleocons have become such staunch opponents of Israel. Plus they absolutely deny that Jewish/Zionist is a race. Some even consider Zionism to be a form of racism that was carried out against Arabs.
Ron Paul, by the way, does have a real following here at freerepublic so some people don't want to hear anything that may make him look bad. Personally, I had no problem posting the June congressional resolution that condemned anti-Semitism (mostly about Israel) and pointing out that Ron Paul and Democrat Cynthia McKinney were the only two members of congress to vote against it.
anti-semitism resolution posted at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1488230/posts
I'm sick of this bunk by the left.
#1 Saddam was financing terror, including homicide bombings in Israel.
#2 Mass graves found in the hundreds of thousands.
Which mass grave was your favorite?
Assassinate this, newbie.
Those FReepers overlook also that paleo-"conservatives" like Buchanan have their own agenda. Buchanan is yet to name any non-English/Scottish (he has to include himself, otherwise he'd omit Scottish too) immigration into U.S. that he considers successful. It's not only the Jews for him: all "minroirites" are inferior somehow. And yet he too has a following here on FR.
I've put "conservatives" in quotes when referring to paleo-conservatives because some of them went to such extremes in opposing the present-day America that they aligned themselves with the Left. Buchanan's ideas about economics, for instance, are anti-free-trade and anti-corporate --- the current slang for anti-capitalist. He for (i) small-business ownership under government regulation/control/ownership of big business and (ii) racial purity. This is exactly the platform of the German Nationalist Workers Party (Nazis). It's hard for me to refer to this socialist as a conservative. But he too has a following here on FR.
Thank you again for your informative post, Susannah.
Thank you for not being a blind follower of every politician with an "R" after their name!
Although Ron Paul considers himself to be a Libertarian Republican, his voting records suggest that he is more of a paleocon. He has been voting against free trade, including CAFTA, so I wasn't surprised to see a link to his senate page at Pat Buchanan's site (http://theamericancause.org)
Speaking of the NAZIs, the Aryan Nations website is still honoring them and some of their graphics toward the bottom of their main page are virulently anti-Israel. They're adamantly opposed to the war and though I wouldn't post their graphics here, I will post some of their messages:
http://www.aryan-nations.org/
(excerpts:
There is much information on the respect and cooperation that Adolf Hitler and others of the Third Reich had for Islam. This would be a good read for all those that claim to be National Socialists and suggest that which Aryan Nations is striving toward is something new and invented by the National Director. If one claims to love the Furher then one should not question his methods.
The hegemonic Zionist neo-conservative chicken-hawks control almost every aspect of our government!
That is why it is often called the Zionist Occupied Government.
In the Clinton administration the foul presence of jewry was evident to all but the most foolish, but this time around they have cunningly slithered, like the parasite that they are, into much less obvious but still frighteningly powerful positions in our weak appointed president's administration. Now they await the call of their Israeli masters...
Christianity, as it is taught today, is nothing more than a tool of the jew to keep His sheep docile. We as Aryan's should not and can not submit ourselves to this jewish religion!
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