Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[nwctwx]

I'll take over the winter storm threads. Last time I made one, I got lots of flak from people who don't care about snow. :<

I think it ended up busting as well!

[No Truce With Kings]

"My cousin lives just north of 290-Jones Rd. intersection in NW Houston. Would you happen to know if that area is flood prone?"

Not from hurricane storm surge. Now if Rita stalled with the over Hockley, and stayed for three-four days dumping 20" of rain each day, yeah, that area would flood. But if you want to bet *that* would happen I have some lottery tickets to sell you.

The danger area is for anyone south of the 610 loop and US-59 south. NASA area and south, Ship Channel, and those around Galveston Bay should be doin' the bugout boogie. Virtually EVERYONE north of I-10 are better off staying home, and forting up. Outherwise you are taking up space on the road that people that really need to get out need right now.

[Tuxedo]

Thanks for the Cosgrove update.

[TheLion]

Got to have the 5 day plot! Some areas are going to get one hell of a lot of rain if this plot prevails!

[SE Mom]

Remember the morning before Katrina hit- the NWS issued that incredible statement "Devastating damage expected.." and some of us thought it was a hoax for a little while- because it was SO dramatic ???

They released it around 10 AM on Sunday...I'm wondering if something similar will come out tomorrow morning.

[LikeLight]

No, I'm not in Beaumont - I'm in Pennsylvania.

[uglybiker]

It's possible that the steering currents may weaken after the storm makes landfall causing it to meander around N.E Texas for a couple of days.

The tracking map I saw put it right over my folks' house sometime Sunday.

I know they need rain in E. Texas but I don't think they wanted it all at once!

[NautiNurse]

One thing I haven't researched yet--what are the differences between the NW Gulf Coast and the NE Gulf Coast. We know the NE Gulf Coast is relatively shallow, and a reasonable storm crippler.

[steveegg]

mhking just came through with a pair of new streams from the Lake Charles/Lafayette area -

KPLC-TV/DT (Lake Charles/Lafayette) - mms://a560.l1058140497.c10581.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/560/10581/v0001/reflector:40497
KATC-TV/DT (Lafayette/Lake Charles) - mms://a1840.l974641016.c9746.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1840/9746/v0001/reflector:41016 (this one seems to be backed up on my test)

[blam]

"The MANDATORY EVACUATION orders have been LIFTED for Aransas County, San Patricio County, City of Portland, Corpus Christi and Nueces County, (except Port Aransas, Mustang Island, Padre Island, and other low lying areas that are subject to flooding)."

I thought I had earlier that people were returning to CC and that they were reving the refineries back up. Guess it's true.

[SouthTexas]

Corpus is now taking evacuees at several hotels, problem is staffing.

Imagine, running from a hurricane and ending up on the beach!

[gulf1609]

Keep me posted on the Beaumont info. Have some friends who have evacuated to Houston from Beaumont and are staying with us. They are a little worried about possible lootings, etc.

[Revel]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=53733#


LarryCosgrove
post Today, 08:31 PM
Post #8



Professional Meteorologist

Group: Meteorologist
Posts: 215
Joined: August 10, 04
Member No.: 427



Some pointers I would like to mention about Rita:

1) Dry air intrusion is not an issue with this storm. Had the hurricane taken a southward track toward the Rio Grande Valley, it might have drawn in a downsloped Mexican cTw regime that would have weakened it. But the cyclone is enclosed in its own envelope of mT values, and entrainment of lower dewpoints is not likely until the center gets into TX on Saturday.

2) The satellite thunderstorm presentation is strengthening, but eyewall reformation is still going on. This deep monster should drop below 910MB and could get into 900MB territory before landfall.

3) I watch with concern how some exaggerate wobbles and NWP depictions. Viewed by rotation around the subtropical high moving into the Carolinas, the landfall option (IMO) is now down to a Freeport to Port Arthur corridor. A case can be made for a left shore of Galveston Bay, but such a call would not be wise until we see ERC finished and the pace of reformation of the heat ridge in NM (which ultimately will slow or stall Rita).

4) Calls for weakening, at least those marking degradation of the hurricane, are invalid if one considers the lack of a shearing mechanism and the very warm SSTs in the path of Rita. I am afraid that some do not want another dangerous, high impact storm affecting a highly populated area. Be it the Golden Triangle (Beaumont-Port Arthur-Lake Charles) or the Houston/Galveston metro, Rita is going to put somebody in a world of pain early Saturday morning. And I think she will be slowed by the ridge expansion to her west, implying more misery through flooding and tornadoes for E TX, SE OK, SW AR, and far W LA.

Just my two dollars...

Best Regards
Larry Cosgrove

[RummyChick]

Can someone explain to me how you build a building to withstand a Cat 5 to hold deadly virus' if another worry is flooding. Maybe the building survives but what about the flooding.

That pool contractor guy in the condo right on the beach is an idiot. Said you would have to have an explosion to destroy the building and he was staying.

[cgk]

Blogs of War: Complete Hurricane news links/resources

[DollyCali]

Flyer are you getting rain yet in Texas? I had just scanned the last two pages(about 500 posts) of the last thread. I recall my time in Houston, it did not take much rain to begin the flooding.

Hi there AFP!

[meyer]

thanks, Rummy Chick. I'll check it out.

[Dog Gone]

No buses for remaining people...last we heard there is no way out...

Given the traffic congestion, the buses can only make a one-way trip north from Beaumont. These folks need to start thinking for themselves instead of expecting the government to magically create buses. Start walking north and stick out your thumb, if nothing else.

[laz]

Louisiana is what about 18hrs behind Texas on this?

What surprises me is they're not even further behind.

[fishntex]

Not sure if it is good news or not but the last few sat pics show it turning almost southwest, this could only be wobble though.