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Posted on 09/22/2005 3:25:57 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA
Additional Resources:
FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
If I was running FEMA right now, I'd sieze the national feeds by FCC writ and order a mandatory evacuation for every person south of I-10 between NO and Houston, and to hell with the fallout.
I'd have everyone between Corpus Christi and Mobile Alabama but out of the evac zone on a plus 3 hour alert, ready to move.
Blanco and Nagin would be triple padlocked in a New Orleans jail on charges of mass murder, and I'd round up Mary Landrieu just in case she decided to make her threats good on punching Bush in the face. If they resisted, the Rules of Engagement would be five in the head, just like subway bombers in London.
No, you can get the PowerPoint viewer:
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyID=428d5727-43ab-4f24-90b7-a94784af71a4&displaylang=en
I had left off the /s tag to that post and added it later.
Blanco is going through the now-historic "Nagin Cycle":
First, FUBAR
then, CYA
Did Blanko say that about the SSN or is that something you inserted?
KPLC-TV Phone: 337 439 9071
It would be nice to see the worst part of this storm come ashore east of East Bay, in Oyster Bayou.
Thanks for the info...
Any one else have a sick feeling?
for two days
might be
Willie, take care. And log back in as soon as you can and let us know how you all make out.
PAY ATTENTION!
And don't forget, as soon as this is over, I'm gonna be beating your brains out again. **SMOOCH**
Will do.
Is it Cindy Sheehan?
While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like Katrina did, will still bring to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983. If the eye passes just west of Galveston Bay, the storm surge will push 1 - 3 of water into some of Houston's eastern suburbs, such as Deer Park.
Figure 1. Expected inland penetration of a Category 5 level hurricane storm surge. Only areas along and to the right of Rita's landfall point may get a Category 5 storm surge. If Rita makes landfall east of Galveston, Houston and Galveston will not see the storm surge flooding shown here.
Current buoy measurements NOAA buoy 42001 measured sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 78 mph, and 34 foot waves at 10am CDT. At the time, the buoy was located 75 miles WNW of Rita. This evening at 5pm CDT, Rita should make a very close pass by this buoy. I expect waves of 50 - 70 feet will impact the buoy, and huge swells from Rita are already starting to pound the Gulf Coast. A time series plot of the wind and pressure from buoy 42001 is worth checking out .
Where will Rita go? The computer models made a modest shift eastwards this morning, calling for a landfall between Galveston and the Texas/Louisiana border. The Hurricane Center shifted their landfall point as well, and now go with the model consensus. The models have been flip-flopping frequently, and it is not unreasonable to suppose that they will shift the landfall point 50 or so miles further west again this tonight. However, a landfall within 100 miles of Galveston seems to be the the best call. Landfall will still occur sometime Saturday, but this may be afternoon instead of morning, as the storm is moving slower than before.
Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north.
Elsewhere in the tropics Tropical Storm Philippe is a minimal tropical storm heading out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. An area of disturbed weather off of the coast of Honduras is being sheared by the strong upper-level winds flowing south from Hurricane Rita. If this disturbed area still exists on Sunday, it has some potential for development. Development off of the coast of Africa is also possible beginning on Sunday.
Blanco said it. Sorry-should have used quotation marks.
Just to add more perspective from a blog on weather underground:
Assuming an eyewall cycle phase has begun, and given the slightly cooler, and significantly shallower warm water Rita
is passing over, the storm could weaken top a borderline CAT4/Cat 5 during the next 12-24 hours. At that point it
will stabilize, probably as an extremely strong CAT 4 or low end CAT 5. By the time of landfall Saturday morning, Rita should
be a CAT 4, with winds of 120mhp, and gusts to 150mph. Enough to cause tremendous wind damage to well built, non masonry
structures. However, the storm surge will cause complete devastation within 1-3 miles of the coastline near the point of landfall.
The latest guidance, and one I believe we need to go on from this point forward - is a landfall between Galveston
and Port Arthur. Galveston has a slightly higher probability from a statistical standpoint for the various models,
but since 00Z and then the 06Z runs and now the 12Z runs of the GFS, landfall is consistently being shown
closer to the west side of Port Arthur.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
Best wishes to you, and Godspeed.
not sure......probably by late this evening though.
Wrong. What we see on TV are the traffic stuck behind the choke points, where the roadways reduce to 2-lanes each way. Once beyond those points it can still be slow, but it will pick up. There is still a good 36 hours to evacuate from central Houston and north. Even if the traffic doesn't average above walking speed, that still gets the people leaving now more than 100 miles inland by late Friday night, which will buy them an extra 24 hours. Converting the outbound lanes will significantly add capacity. Anyone leaving within the next 12 hours will make it out of harms way IF they leave with a near full gas tank. But there are no guarantees if people wait until tomorrow.
It shows no such thing. Why would you do this? To panic people who are in a safety? Or to risk the lives of people who are in the actual path?
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