Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

If I was running FEMA right now, I'd sieze the national feeds by FCC writ and order a mandatory evacuation for every person south of I-10 between NO and Houston, and to hell with the fallout.

I'd have everyone between Corpus Christi and Mobile Alabama but out of the evac zone on a plus 3 hour alert, ready to move.

Blanco and Nagin would be triple padlocked in a New Orleans jail on charges of mass murder, and I'd round up Mary Landrieu just in case she decided to make her threats good on punching Bush in the face. If they resisted, the Rules of Engagement would be five in the head, just like subway bombers in London.

921 posted on 09/22/2005 9:02:28 AM PDT by jeffers

922 posted on 09/22/2005 9:03:37 AM PDT by Howlin

To: texianyankee

Census.gov is down. High Island's 1990 population was around 500, according to a few other websites. It's actually in the tail end of Galveston County, not Chambers. But Chambers County lies directly to the north. It is built on a salt dome. From Texasescapes.com (I haven't fixed the typos):

HIGH ISLAND, TEXAS
Galveston County, Texas Gulf Coast

State Highway 87
State Highway 124
21 miles South of Winnie
26 miles N of Port Bolivar

Population: 500
History in a Pecan Shell

Appropriately named, High Island's altitude of 38-feet makes it the highest point on the Gulf Coast between Mobile, Alabama, and Campeche, Mexico. The name is credited to Anson Jones who referred to the area as "the High Islands" in 1845. Jean Lafitte's cabin boy retired there in the 1870s. His house was restored in the 1970s and he's buried nearby. Naturally, there are rumors of a buried treasure.

The first Anglo settler moved to High Island in 1845. The area didn't gather a population - except when storms hit the coast. A post office wasn't opened until 1897. In the 1890s the the mineral springs were purchased and promoted. The business, which thrived in the late 1890s, was destroyed in the 1900 strorm.

An initial search for oil after the Spindletop discovery proved fruitless, but it was finally discovered in the 1930s - providing an economic boost to the region. Today, touism drives the High Island economy with two bird sanctuaries as well as a fishing pier.

http://www.texasescapes.com/TexasGulfCoastTowns/High-Island-Texas.htm

923 posted on 09/22/2005 9:03:41 AM PDT by conservative in nyc

I had left off the /s tag to that post and added it later.
Blanco is going through the now-historic "Nagin Cycle":
First, FUBAR
then, CYA

924 posted on 09/22/2005 9:03:52 AM PDT by bwteim (Begin With The End In Mind)

Did Blanko say that about the SSN or is that something you inserted?

925 posted on 09/22/2005 9:03:56 AM PDT by RummyChick

KPLC-TV Phone: 337 439 9071

926 posted on 09/22/2005 9:04:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)

It would be nice to see the worst part of this storm come ashore east of East Bay, in Oyster Bayou.

927 posted on 09/22/2005 9:04:00 AM PDT by Petronski (I love Cyborg!)

To: Strategerist

Thanks for the info...
Any one else have a sick feeling?

928 posted on 09/22/2005 9:04:00 AM PDT by LA Woman3 (On election day, they were driven to the polls...On evacuation day, they had to fend for themselves)

Any one else have a sick feeling?

for two days

929 posted on 09/22/2005 9:04:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)

930 posted on 09/22/2005 9:05:41 AM PDT by Orlando

To: Willie Green

Willie, take care. And log back in as soon as you can and let us know how you all make out.

PAY ATTENTION!

And don't forget, as soon as this is over, I'm gonna be beating your brains out again. **SMOOCH**

931 posted on 09/22/2005 9:07:04 AM PDT by Howlin

To: numberonepal

932 posted on 09/22/2005 9:07:19 AM PDT by Syntyr (From West Houston Galleria/Memorial area! Locked and Loaded)

Is it Cindy Sheehan?

933 posted on 09/22/2005 9:07:31 AM PDT by Howlin

We continue to live history as this incredible Hurricane Season of 2005 unfolds more stunning surprises. Rita has peaked in intensity as the third strongest hurricane of all time, with a pressure of 897 mb and 175 mph winds. She is on the decline now, as the 11am hurricane hunter mission found a pressure of 913 mb, and increase of 5 mb in just 3 hours. The hurricane hunters also found concentric eyewalls of 17 and 55 nautical miles in diameter. All these signs indicate that Rita will continue to weaken today as her inner eyewall collapses and an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Rita is about to leave the vicinity of a warm eddy of Gulf water called the Loop Current that has been aiding her intensification. In addition, 10 knots of shear has developed on her south side, thanks to the fact that the upper-level high pressure system that was providing such excellent outflow for Rita has now shifted to the southeast of the storm. All these signs point to a substantial weakening trend for Rita that will continue through Friday and probably reduce her to a Category 4 hurricane. The GFDL forecast model and NHC predict that this weakening trend will continue until landfall Saturday, when Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane. Lower heat content water and continued shear are expected to cause this weakening.

While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like Katrina did, will still bring to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983. If the eye passes just west of Galveston Bay, the storm surge will push 1 - 3 of water into some of Houston's eastern suburbs, such as Deer Park.

Figure 1. Expected inland penetration of a Category 5 level hurricane storm surge. Only areas along and to the right of Rita's landfall point may get a Category 5 storm surge. If Rita makes landfall east of Galveston, Houston and Galveston will not see the storm surge flooding shown here.

Current buoy measurements NOAA buoy 42001 measured sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 78 mph, and 34 foot waves at 10am CDT. At the time, the buoy was located 75 miles WNW of Rita. This evening at 5pm CDT, Rita should make a very close pass by this buoy. I expect waves of 50 - 70 feet will impact the buoy, and huge swells from Rita are already starting to pound the Gulf Coast. A time series plot of the wind and pressure from buoy 42001 is worth checking out .

Where will Rita go? The computer models made a modest shift eastwards this morning, calling for a landfall between Galveston and the Texas/Louisiana border. The Hurricane Center shifted their landfall point as well, and now go with the model consensus. The models have been flip-flopping frequently, and it is not unreasonable to suppose that they will shift the landfall point 50 or so miles further west again this tonight. However, a landfall within 100 miles of Galveston seems to be the the best call. Landfall will still occur sometime Saturday, but this may be afternoon instead of morning, as the storm is moving slower than before.

Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north.

Elsewhere in the tropics Tropical Storm Philippe is a minimal tropical storm heading out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. An area of disturbed weather off of the coast of Honduras is being sheared by the strong upper-level winds flowing south from Hurricane Rita. If this disturbed area still exists on Sunday, it has some potential for development. Development off of the coast of Africa is also possible beginning on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

934 posted on 09/22/2005 9:07:44 AM PDT by DallasMike

Blanco said it. Sorry-should have used quotation marks.

935 posted on 09/22/2005 9:07:55 AM PDT by LA Woman3 (On election day, they were driven to the polls...On evacuation day, they had to fend for themselves)

To: NautiNurse; All

Just to add more perspective from a blog on weather underground:

Assuming an eyewall cycle phase has begun, and given the slightly cooler, and significantly shallower warm water Rita
is passing over, the storm could weaken top a borderline CAT4/Cat 5 during the next 12-24 hours. At that point it
will stabilize, probably as an extremely strong CAT 4 or low end CAT 5. By the time of landfall Saturday morning, Rita should
be a CAT 4, with winds of 120mhp, and gusts to 150mph. Enough to cause tremendous wind damage to well built, non masonry
structures. However, the storm surge will cause complete devastation within 1-3 miles of the coastline near the point of landfall.

The latest guidance, and one I believe we need to go on from this point forward - is a landfall between Galveston
and Port Arthur. Galveston has a slightly higher probability from a statistical standpoint for the various models,
but since 00Z and then the 06Z runs and now the 12Z runs of the GFS, landfall is consistently being shown
closer to the west side of Port Arthur.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

936 posted on 09/22/2005 9:07:59 AM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)

To: Willie Green

Best wishes to you, and Godspeed.

937 posted on 09/22/2005 9:08:03 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)

not sure......probably by late this evening though.

938 posted on 09/22/2005 9:08:35 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)

To: Sans-Culotte

At least a million are leaving, but at this point, I do not think anyone leaving will get anywhere. The people in the outright coastal areas had to leave, but it is looking logistically impossible for the rest of Houston to do likewise.

Wrong. What we see on TV are the traffic stuck behind the choke points, where the roadways reduce to 2-lanes each way. Once beyond those points it can still be slow, but it will pick up. There is still a good 36 hours to evacuate from central Houston and north. Even if the traffic doesn't average above walking speed, that still gets the people leaving now more than 100 miles inland by late Friday night, which will buy them an extra 24 hours. Converting the outbound lanes will significantly add capacity. Anyone leaving within the next 12 hours will make it out of harms way IF they leave with a near full gas tank. But there are no guarantees if people wait until tomorrow.

939 posted on 09/22/2005 9:09:15 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat

NOLA assumption from weather channel track line showing norhterly trend.

It shows no such thing. Why would you do this? To panic people who are in a safety? Or to risk the lives of people who are in the actual path?

Weather Channel Projected Path

940 posted on 09/22/2005 9:09:36 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)

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