Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[steveegg]

Ah, I heard she completed it earlier today...that was obviously premature.

The AF flight was only seeing the inside wall for a while, while the NOAA flight working the same time was still seeing concentric walls. Probably where the confusion got started.

[Guenevere]

I didn't know this....

...How old was your grandfather at the time?....
...it must have been horrible...during and after, with all those bodies....

..the book was hard to read.....I can't imagine actually being there...

[JudyinCanada]

$3.00 a gallon...

We were up to $3.30 A LITRE!!!! today in Port Dover, on Lake Erie.

[AliVeritas]

Thanks.

[Flyer]

As I have mentioned several times on FR my grandfather was a survivor of the Galveston storm of 1900

I have to read FR to find out that info from a friend and near neighbor?

;-]

I'm all tucked in here. I want to let some of the early rain water my patio plants before I bring them in, otherwise I'm good to go.

[Dane]

GFS model now shows a Saturday morning hit (~ 7am EDT) slightly west of the TX-LA border. It then shows Rita moving inland about 60-80 miles and sitting there for the next 48 hours plus. That would be a horrible scenario for E Teaxs, but worse for W. Louisiana.

[Eaker]

You are correct Sauron.

To clarify BearWash, I am posting on a South Texas hurricane thread in September sitting in the cone of damage in Houston.

It is 19:10 hours and 90 degrees outside.

If my Coleman lantern is burning you can bet my windows are open because the A/C is off since the power is out.

Simply because we live in the south doesn't make us simple.

When we tar and feather a yankee we always do it outside.

;<)

[SE Mom]

That's what TWC said. Max Mayfield said at 6 pm he wouldn't be surprised to see her re-strengthen a bit..I think he's still expecting it to hit at 4.

[steveegg]

That was a couple reports ago (check the timestamps). That crew has finally seen the concentric eyewalls the NOAA crew was seeing this afternoon.

[commish]

125 knots in the NE quad is the highest I've seen in hours.

The NOAA recon about 1 hr ago had 133KT in the NE quad, then AF came in with 125.

She has definately stabilized strengthwise. Pressure has basically not changed since the ERC maximized (Went up to 915, then back down to 913). Winds have started to come back slightly as you have pointed out.

I think by later tonight/tomrrow morning she will be back up to 160-170, and her pressure will be down below 910. Very little chance (never say none) she will get back down to sub 900.

Thankfully, she will most likely weaken some as she approaches the coast, but everything points to her being as strong as Katrina at landfall IMO.

My personal opinion is Cameron Parrish, LA -- trending toward Lake Charles -- and 140 at landfall.

[BurbankKarl]

KPRC ran a graphic the Texas Natl Guard convoy was heading to Austin for the storm.

[dc-zoo]

I saw that southern jog too. She's still doing the "stairstep wobble".
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

[Spktyr]

*If* it jams. And don't think that revolvers are perfect - I had a Smith & Wesson .357 break the mainspring.

[RoseofTexas]

Looks like the wobble is back and it's aiming towards Galveston or Houston...yikes. The Lord REBUKE you RITA!!!!

[RummyChick]

cops in NO stole a generator from Tulane hospital. Hotel owner said cops went on a looting spray that included rolexes . Stole bus to loot. On CNN now.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Good grief!!!!

[steveegg]

Yikes. I assume that's Canadian dollars (which was trading at $1.17 CDN/$1 USD last I saw). OUCH! I come up with $10.66 USD/gallon or $12.74 CDN/gallon.

What is it usually?

[CedarDave]

Presser continues...
Will have plenty of buses to rescue those stranded on the roads and take to shelters.
As the time approaches, want those on the road to know they will be picked up if they want to be so they don't have spend the night there.
All taking at once...gasoline may or may not get to those stuck on the road or two those at gas stations that have run out of fuel.

[commish]

She will show Westward wobbles as the West side of the strom rebuilds from the ERC, but she is aiming right for the weakness in the ridge along the Tx/La border.

Of course, all it takes is a Wobble to the west at just the right time and she comes into Galveston.

[freeperfromnj]

That is just disgraceful. I hope the looters are held to account at some point.