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Posted on 09/20/2005 6:16:38 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
Okay, I'm exaggerating.
We will be lucky to find gasoline to buy at any price.
Me too. I wasn't until tonight and now I have a bad feeling. I'm usually an optimist.
Watching O'Reilly rerun..Raynu? Of accuweather .com says Galveston ..Houston area target..could weaken a bit from Cat 4 in shallow waters.
Inland flooding biggest danger as far as deaths go in these storms.
My mother is living in central Texas. Is there a high liklihood that the winds will cause damage in that far inland?
Map for Texas elevations http://www.bidc.state.tx.us/BIDC_Maps/TX_Maps/ENV/ElevationRanges.pdf
data from an Air Force Reserve unit recon aircraft at 21/0020z in the northeast quadrant indicated 700 mb flight-level winds of 103 kt...roughly 93 kt surface winds. Doppler radar velocities from Key West have been as high as 113 kt at 9500 feet in spots...with the majority of the highest values in the 105-107 kt range...which equals about 95 kt surface winds. A recon pass through the 28 nmi diameter eye at 0204z indicated a surface pressure of 965 mb... which roughly equals 95 kt. Therefore...the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt...or just below major hurricane strength.
The initial motion is 275/11. Rita is expected to continue moving a little north of due west for the next 36-48 hours as the strong ridge to the north remains intact along the Gulf Coast and into central and northern Texas. The 18z GFS and GFS-ensemble models have shifted eastward to near the Texas-Louisiana border. However ...Both models were forecasting the 21/00z 500 mb heights across Texas to decrease by 20 meters...when in fact... 21/00z upper-air data indicate The Heights did not change and the mid-level high over northwest Texas has remained quite strong with heights near 6000 meters. As a result...less weight was palced on the GFS model ...Since it appears to be decreasing the strength of the ridge too quickly...the official forecast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track...and is close to the NHC model consensus.
The previous advisory indicating rapid intensification for the next 24 hours appears to be on track. During the past 14 hours...the central pressure has decreased 20 mb...or at a rate of about 2 Dvorak T-numbers per 24 hours. While such a large pressure fall trend rarely occurs for more than 24 hours...the very favorable upper-level outflow pattern and 30c-31c SSTs beneath Rita suggest that rapid intensification should continue for at least another 24 hours. A poleward outflow channel is well established with outflow accumulating into a large upper-level low...or mass sink...east of the Bahamas. In addition... an equatorward outflow channel also appears to be developing. Given the dual outflow pattern that is expected to persist for the next 36-48 hours...strengthening into a category 5 hurricane is a distinct possibility. By 72 hours... a gradual increase in the southwesterly vertical shear is expected to bring about some weakening. However...the GFS-based SHIPS model that is indicating 25-30 kt of shear may be including the winds associated with the strong outflow pattern depicted by the model. This would mean that the GFS shear is too high...and thus...the sharp GFS weakening of Rita down to 99 kt at landfall would be premature. The official intensity forecast leans closer to the FSU superensemble intensity forecast of 122 kt in 48 hours and 126 kt in 60 hours.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0300z 24.1n 83.2w 95 kt 12hr VT 21/1200z 24.2n 85.2w 105 kt 24hr VT 22/0000z 24.4n 87.5w 120 kt 36hr VT 22/1200z 24.6n 89.4w 125 kt 48hr VT 23/0000z 25.1n 91.4w 125 kt 72hr VT 24/0000z 27.1n 94.7w 120 kt 96hr VT 25/0000z 30.5n 96.5w 60 kt...inland 120hr VT 26/0000z 34.5n 96.5w 25 kt...dissipating inland
It means that radar is showing the eye completely surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms. It also means not good. The next one down, "M", is Eyeshape Orientation and Diameter (C-circular; CO-concentric; E-elliptical). The second number is the diameter of the eye in nautical miles. So for this message, C28, means a circular eye with a 28 nm diameter. My eyes always go straight to "H", Minimum Sea Level Pressure. To get the info you need to read a vortex message go here.
that's a new website on us and hubby LOVES those kind of sites...........he's flipping out in the other room now that I sent him there :)
Thanks for the link Howlin!!!
We plan on heading for Waco..not as far north!
Mine is sound asleep (thank God) which is why I am busy ordering stuff I know he'll like. :)
How did PT go today, Gabz?
Some parts near the water definitely are, like around the San Jacinto monument, but others are piney woods...Houston is an ecologically diverse area: coastal plains and wetlands to the south, woods to the north, and grassy plains to the west, and the city is divided between the 8 and 9 planting zone as well...
Yeah, I've got 2 whole sheets in the garage, uncut, and 2 more with just little pieces removed. Plus various pieces of 2x4, etc. The accumulation of lumber just feels right!
RITA per the latest forecast is expected to be at CAT4 by Wednesday evening. Play it safe. Even flying pine needles and cones can be come dangerous projectiles in high winds.
God Speed
I would be ordering stuff tonight, too, except I am under orders not to put anything more on American Express until next month. LOL!
LOL! I understand...lol.
I have a xantrex 400 plus portable generator. it is very handy. www.xantrex.com. they may have a better unit by now.
A few put it east of Houston, which I'd prefer, but those aren't the major models. Without looking into the specifics of those model runs, I'd take that as bad news for you and me.
I'm afraid my fear is going to be confirmed about this time tomorrow night when the models decide that Rita will hit somewhere slightly southwest of Houston, somewhere between Baytown and Freeport.
Turn out the lights, the party's over.
Remember, these storms made right hand (eastward) jogs just prior to landfall: Ivan=30 miles out, Dennis=70 miles out and Katrina=30 miles out. So, if it's to the west of you, beware. (The Ivan and Dennis jogs saved my butt)
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