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Hurricane Rita Live Thread
NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/20/2005 6:16:38 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; rita; tropical
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To: Tall_Texan
If this thing hits Houston at close to a Cat 5, you'll have to take out a mortgage to fill your gas tank.

Okay, I'm exaggerating.

We will be lucky to find gasoline to buy at any price.

1,841 posted on 09/20/2005 8:10:56 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: BlueAngel

Me too. I wasn't until tonight and now I have a bad feeling. I'm usually an optimist.


1,842 posted on 09/20/2005 8:11:10 PM PDT by hobson (Houston - NW Loop)
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To: Mo1

Watching O'Reilly rerun..Raynu? Of accuweather .com says Galveston ..Houston area target..could weaken a bit from Cat 4 in shallow waters.

Inland flooding biggest danger as far as deaths go in these storms.


1,843 posted on 09/20/2005 8:11:13 PM PDT by MEG33 (GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES)
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To: NautiNurse

My mother is living in central Texas. Is there a high liklihood that the winds will cause damage in that far inland?


1,844 posted on 09/20/2005 8:11:40 PM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: mathluv

Map for Texas elevations http://www.bidc.state.tx.us/BIDC_Maps/TX_Maps/ENV/ElevationRanges.pdf


1,845 posted on 09/20/2005 8:11:49 PM PDT by tapatio
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To: All
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 14

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2005

 
data from an Air Force Reserve unit recon aircraft at 21/0020z in
the northeast quadrant indicated 700 mb flight-level winds of 103
kt...roughly 93 kt surface winds. Doppler radar velocities from Key
West have been as high as 113 kt at 9500 feet in spots...with the
majority of the highest values in the 105-107 kt range...which
equals about 95 kt surface winds. A recon pass through the 28 nmi
diameter eye at 0204z indicated a surface pressure of 965 mb...
which roughly equals 95 kt. Therefore...the initial intensity has
been increased to 95 kt...or just below major hurricane strength.

 
The initial motion is 275/11. Rita is expected to continue moving a
little north of due west for the next 36-48 hours as the strong
ridge to the north remains intact along the Gulf Coast and into
central and northern Texas. The 18z GFS and GFS-ensemble models
have shifted eastward to near the Texas-Louisiana border. However
...Both models were forecasting the 21/00z 500 mb heights across
Texas to decrease by 20 meters...when in fact... 21/00z upper-air
data indicate The Heights did not change and the mid-level high
over northwest Texas has remained quite strong with heights near
6000 meters. As a result...less weight was palced on the GFS model
...Since it appears to be decreasing the strength of the ridge too
quickly...the official forecast track is just an update and
extension of the previous advisory track...and is close to the NHC
model consensus.

 
The previous advisory indicating rapid intensification for the next
24 hours appears to be on track. During the past 14 hours...the
central pressure has decreased 20 mb...or at a rate of about 2
Dvorak T-numbers per 24 hours. While such a large pressure fall
trend rarely occurs for more than 24 hours...the very favorable
upper-level outflow pattern and 30c-31c SSTs beneath Rita suggest
that rapid intensification should continue for at least another 24
hours. A poleward outflow channel is well established with outflow
accumulating into a large upper-level low...or mass sink...east of
the Bahamas. In addition... an equatorward outflow channel also
appears to be developing. Given the dual outflow pattern that is
expected to persist for the next 36-48 hours...strengthening into a
category 5 hurricane is a distinct possibility. By 72 hours... a
gradual increase in the southwesterly vertical shear is expected to
bring about some weakening. However...the GFS-based SHIPS model
that is indicating 25-30 kt of shear may be including the winds
associated with the strong outflow pattern depicted by the model.
This would mean that the GFS shear is too high...and thus...the
sharp GFS weakening of Rita down to 99 kt at landfall would be
premature. The official intensity forecast leans closer to the FSU
superensemble intensity forecast of 122 kt in 48 hours and 126 kt
in 60 hours.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      21/0300z 24.1n  83.2w    95 kt
 12hr VT     21/1200z 24.2n  85.2w   105 kt
 24hr VT     22/0000z 24.4n  87.5w   120 kt
 36hr VT     22/1200z 24.6n  89.4w   125 kt
 48hr VT     23/0000z 25.1n  91.4w   125 kt
 72hr VT     24/0000z 27.1n  94.7w   120 kt
 96hr VT     25/0000z 30.5n  96.5w    60 kt...inland
120hr VT     26/0000z 34.5n  96.5w    25 kt...dissipating inland

1,846 posted on 09/20/2005 8:11:51 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: onyx
What does "closed wall" mean?

It means that radar is showing the eye completely surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms. It also means not good. The next one down, "M", is Eyeshape Orientation and Diameter (C-circular; CO-concentric; E-elliptical). The second number is the diameter of the eye in nautical miles. So for this message, C28, means a circular eye with a 28 nm diameter. My eyes always go straight to "H", Minimum Sea Level Pressure. To get the info you need to read a vortex message go here.

1,847 posted on 09/20/2005 8:11:51 PM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: onyx; Howlin

that's a new website on us and hubby LOVES those kind of sites...........he's flipping out in the other room now that I sent him there :)

Thanks for the link Howlin!!!


1,848 posted on 09/20/2005 8:12:31 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane season)
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To: Miss Marple

We plan on heading for Waco..not as far north!


1,849 posted on 09/20/2005 8:13:51 PM PDT by MEG33 (GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES)
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To: Gabz; Howlin


Mine is sound asleep (thank God) which is why I am busy ordering stuff I know he'll like. :)

How did PT go today, Gabz?


1,850 posted on 09/20/2005 8:14:45 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: Tarheel

Some parts near the water definitely are, like around the San Jacinto monument, but others are piney woods...Houston is an ecologically diverse area: coastal plains and wetlands to the south, woods to the north, and grassy plains to the west, and the city is divided between the 8 and 9 planting zone as well...


1,851 posted on 09/20/2005 8:15:26 PM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)
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To: dawn53

Yeah, I've got 2 whole sheets in the garage, uncut, and 2 more with just little pieces removed. Plus various pieces of 2x4, etc. The accumulation of lumber just feels right!


1,852 posted on 09/20/2005 8:15:26 PM PDT by Sam Cree (absolute reality - Miami)
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To: lonestar

RITA per the latest forecast is expected to be at CAT4 by Wednesday evening. Play it safe. Even flying pine needles and cones can be come dangerous projectiles in high winds.

God Speed


1,853 posted on 09/20/2005 8:16:13 PM PDT by gpapa (Boost FR Traffic! Make FR your home page!)
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To: onyx

I would be ordering stuff tonight, too, except I am under orders not to put anything more on American Express until next month. LOL!


1,854 posted on 09/20/2005 8:16:22 PM PDT by Miss Marple (Lord, please look after Mozart Lover's son and keep him strong.)
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To: Don'tMessWithTexas
Tornadoes can spin off and trees can fall but the main problem in Central TX is flooding.
1,855 posted on 09/20/2005 8:16:41 PM PDT by AggieMom x 3 (Way north of Dallas)
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To: All

1,856 posted on 09/20/2005 8:17:04 PM PDT by TheLion
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To: Miss Marple


LOL! I understand...lol.


1,857 posted on 09/20/2005 8:17:05 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: DrewsMum

I have a xantrex 400 plus portable generator. it is very handy. www.xantrex.com. they may have a better unit by now.


1,858 posted on 09/20/2005 8:17:43 PM PDT by Oystir
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To: shield
I don't think that's a change south. It looks like a change north. Even the stupid NOGAPS model shifted it well north of Mexico this run.

A few put it east of Houston, which I'd prefer, but those aren't the major models. Without looking into the specifics of those model runs, I'd take that as bad news for you and me.

I'm afraid my fear is going to be confirmed about this time tomorrow night when the models decide that Rita will hit somewhere slightly southwest of Houston, somewhere between Baytown and Freeport.

Turn out the lights, the party's over.

1,859 posted on 09/20/2005 8:18:14 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
"Wonderful. A tropical storm when I got up to work this morning and now a Cat 3. How much more of this good news can I stand?"

Remember, these storms made right hand (eastward) jogs just prior to landfall: Ivan=30 miles out, Dennis=70 miles out and Katrina=30 miles out. So, if it's to the west of you, beware. (The Ivan and Dennis jogs saved my butt)

1,860 posted on 09/20/2005 8:18:22 PM PDT by blam (Mobile, Alabama)
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