Posted on 09/19/2005 12:34:29 AM PDT by topher
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190307
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
THE LAST RECON REPORT AT 17/2324Z INDICATED MAXIMUM RELIABLE 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...OR ROUGHLY 44 KT SURFACE WINDS. THERE WAS ONE FLIGHT-LEVEL REPORT OF 67 KT...BUT THIS OCCURRED DURING CLIMBOUT TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE TO AVOID TURBULENCE...AND IS THEREFORE NOT DEEMED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING OR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY BE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR ACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CAYMAN BRAC AND HAS NOT WEAKENED LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA...SHOULD STEER RITA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO PERHAPS 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND TURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE HEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT... HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36-72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO COCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE RITA WILL BE OVER 30C SSTS AND IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AT LEAST 100 KT...BY 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 73.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W 100 KT
The veneer of civilization is thin, but nowhere near as thin as New Orleans post-Katrina would indicate. The problem with New Orleans was that all the people that keep things in order had evacuated. So, what you had left were people without all that much civilization to begin with..
Mayor Nagin saw the weather report and is adamant that the evacuees should return to New Orleans ASAP. (sarcasm)
I wonder what all those New Orleans people who fled to Houston are thinking.
Seems like the greatest danger is for Texas and Louisiana. Can't imagine that it will be more than a minimal hurricane when it hits the Keys.
It's from the NOAA website. The federal government can't afford shift keys due to the money they're putting into Katrina relief ops.
Good thing I went this last weekend instead of next weekend to pick up my boat in Houston. This storm should bring Oklahoma City some much needed rain.
I saw a number of Rita Crosby threads...
The keys are still at risk.
I heard recently that 3 out of 10 of the dead bodies found for Katrina (I believe in New Orleans) had either slit throats or gunshot wounds... This really bothered me last night... I can't name the source (I went to HS/College in Southwest/Southcentral Lousiana).
I don't mind the storm bringing in much needed rain -- I am just very concerned about the offshore oil/natural gas getting shut in again... Maybe land rigs should be looking for more natural gas in deep wells in Oklahoma/North Louisiana/Kansas, etc.
I wonder if Ophelia cooled off the Atlantic Ocean waters by not figuring out where that storm was going to go -- sucking all the energy and heat out of the water...
There is no supposed to when a storm hasn't even become a hurricane yet, more less 8-10 days out. What you hear from the NOAA and other media with a storm this far away are merely educated guesses. At around 4 days things start to firm up a bit with the "cone of uncertainty" becoming better defined. I'm not saying that they're always wrong 8-10 days out, but it's too much to ask for them to be right then. Once Rita passes the Florida Straights, they will have a better idea on where the storm might come ashore.
This is going to be hard on the Katrina evacuee's and people helping to host them in Texas... Hitting the other half (Western Gulf) of oil production offshore would not be very good...
Still, it may be a good idea to think about moving those cruise ships and tankers over a bit closer to the FL coast.
It's definitely time to "get your ears on" if you are in the cone.
While Katrina seemed to have less effect on surface water temperatures, Ophelia did seem to suck up the cooler deeper water. The gulf stream has since pushed warmer water back up into the affected coastal areas.
Sheesh, the things that some people choose to get annoyed about.
But we are assured daily that religion is superfluous in our modern world. Man was made in God's likeness. For a reason. To elevate him above the rank of animal. Animals are amoral feeders. Man is better than this. But the agnostics would have you believe we are hard wired for morality. Yeah right.
Seems like there was a movie once that was written on the premise a lot of scores would get evened under the aspices of a hurricane.
Quick correction - agnostics do not know if there is a God, but do not deny it as a possibility. It's the atheists that deny the existence of a God.
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