Posted on 09/19/2005 12:34:29 AM PDT by topher
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190307
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
THE LAST RECON REPORT AT 17/2324Z INDICATED MAXIMUM RELIABLE 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...OR ROUGHLY 44 KT SURFACE WINDS. THERE WAS ONE FLIGHT-LEVEL REPORT OF 67 KT...BUT THIS OCCURRED DURING CLIMBOUT TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE TO AVOID TURBULENCE...AND IS THEREFORE NOT DEEMED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING OR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY BE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR ACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CAYMAN BRAC AND HAS NOT WEAKENED LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA...SHOULD STEER RITA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO PERHAPS 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND TURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE HEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT... HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36-72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO COCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE RITA WILL BE OVER 30C SSTS AND IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AT LEAST 100 KT...BY 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 73.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W 100 KT
Yeah, that looks a lot better. The poor b******* in Brownsville would get it in the shorts again, but that's the about the best place for the thing to go. There's not much there, as you say.
Word has a sentence option for upper/lower case. I would think other programs might, as well.
Thank you for curing the upper-case-itis.
Oh, I already have a good supply. I was thinking of trade goods and ally support.
Remember the old Civil Defense philosophy (that those militias in NO and MS clearly learned well) - fall back, regroup, ally, organize, advance. If nothing else, NO should have made it clear to everyone that it really *can* happen in any major city, anywhere, at any time.
I came to that conclusion when I watched folks scrounging for wood in Serajevo to keep warm (and bury their dead) on tv.
I can imagine a certain amount of nastiness can happen anywhere in the snow belt if the power goes out for more than a few days in winter.
Prepare for the worst. Pray for the best.
A 50% chance of being Cat 3 or greater in then next 72 hours. At that point in time Rita would be in the middle of the Gulf and still have a day or two to strengthen. We should hope that she doesn't become an annular hurricane (self sustaining) like Katrina. If that's the case, Rita could go to Cat 5 before landfall.
As others have observed, the veneer of civilization is thin.
The computer models for tropical cyclones are more accurate when the storm is a hurricane vice a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Always expect a lot of error with the earliest forecasts (like with Katrina). But as the storm develops there is less uncertainty and the different models tend to converge.
72 days to go in the season, another storm.
IT'S BUSH'S FAULT! :)
Thanks for bringing it up but this map from Accuweather seems rather worthless. It puts the anywhere along a path some 700+ miles from around Galvaston to near Veracruz!
We're far too many days out to know anything more usefully definitive. The models are all over the place.
The mid level ridge that is along the gulf coast should keep the storm south of the oil rigs off Louisiana's coast. It's close enough to pay attention to but the likelyhood is that the storm will stay south of the main oil platforms in the gulf. Platforms off the central texas coast would have to be shut down though.
the new reconaissance aircraft in the system at 07z found that the pressure had fallen to 999 mb...and first satellite images after the eclipse show that convection is now wrapping around to the northwest of the center and has taken a more banded appearance. A dropsonde in the northwest quadrant had 44 kt at the surface...with flight level winds in this quadrant of 57 kt. The northeast quadrant has not yet been sampled...and I presume that higher winds will be found there during the next hour or so. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.
The last two aircraft fixes indicate an almost due west motion...but with all the center reformations that have occurred it is difficult to ascertain a representative motion. My best judgement is 280/8. Rita has already passed the longitude of the break in the subtropical ridge...and will come under increasing pressure to have the track nudge to the left. Furthermore...now that the convection is becoming a little more symmetric...there should be less likelihood of additional northward reformations of the center. Model guidance adjusted to the current location is very tightly clustered on a path through the Florida Straits south of Key West...and I have adjusted the official forecast slightly south of the previous advisory. There has been a fairly significant shift in the guidance late in the forecast period...with the global models abruptly weakening the mid-level high over the western Gulf and allowing Rita to begin a sharper recurvature track. While I have adjusted the 120-hr point about 120 nm north of the previous advisory...I am still well to the left of most of the 120-hr guidance.
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level low in the northwest Caribbean is shifting eastward...and as it does so the southerly shear over Rita will continue to decrease. This should allow for a faster development rate. The official forecast is very close to the SHIPS guidance.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0900z 22.7n 74.3w 50 kt 12hr VT 19/1800z 23.1n 76.0w 60 kt 24hr VT 20/0600z 23.6n 78.5w 70 kt 36hr VT 20/1800z 24.0n 81.2w 80 kt 48hr VT 21/0600z 24.2n 84.0w 90 kt 72hr VT 22/0600z 24.5n 88.5w 100 kt 96hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 92.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 24/0600z 27.5n 96.0w 95 kt
As posted on Rita live thread:
Rita appears to be taking a similar track to Katrina. Not that I wish bad on anyone, but I hope it continues west and hits in Mexico. We in Florida and the Gulf Coast have had more than enough of our share of hurricanes in the past two years. Somebody else's turn.
There was already an ongoing Rita thread that this should have been posted to:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1486960/posts
Let's keep this thread going as a high graphics thread.
But we're out of the loop for this one, aren't we?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.