LIVE THREAD - German polls closed: AP: SCHROEDER DEFEATED!

Voting began in Germany's closely fought election today with millions of undecided voters holding the key to a result that will have major implications for economic reform in Europe.

Angela Merkel, a Christian Democrat (CDU) chancellor, is expected to emerge as Germany's first woman chancellor, displacing Gerhard Schroeder who has led Germany for the past seven years at the head of a centre-left government of Social Democrats and Greens.

A provisional result is expected to be announced in the early hours of Monday morning. The final opinion polls published on Friday gave Merkel's centre-right coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) a slim lead in a race it once dominated.

High stakes For Germany and the rest of Europe, the stakes in the election are high. Some five million Germans are out of work, the country's pensions system is in crisis, its public finances are overstretched and the economy that once drove growth in Europe is now acting as a drag on the rest of the continent.

Analysts say that if Germany succeeds in pushing through reforms, they could be a model for change in the rest of Europe. Surveys show that most Germans believe the system needs changing but they are deeply uncertain about how far the changes should go and how the burden should be shared.

Schroeder's own "Agenda 2010" reforms to welfare and labour market rules have been the most ambitious attempt to overhaul the social security system in decades. They have been attacked by the conservatives and by some commentators as not going far enough. The reforms were bitterly resented by voters. - Reuters

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/article_1048953.php/Polls_open_in_hotly_fought_German_election

Polls open in hotly fought German election

Sep 18, 2005, 13:05 GMT

BERLIN, Germany (UPI) -- National polls opened Sunday for 62 million German voters, as many as 25 percent of whom remained undecided at the last minute.

Campaigning between incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his conservative challenger Angela Merkel continued until the last minute allowed by law Saturday night, the BBC said.

Schroeder has led Germany for seven years, during which unemployment reached record highs, now nearly 5 million, the highest since 1945.

Economic reform and repairing diplomatic relations have been Merkel`s key campaign themes.

While polls give Merkel`s CDU party a significant lead over Schroeder`s Social Democrats, her hopes of becoming Germany`s first woman chancellor may depend on whether she can form a coalition, the BBC said.

Polls show the CDU has between 41-43 percent of the vote, and its Free Democrat allies up to 8 percent. On Schroeder`s side, the SPD polls between 32-34 percent, while its Green Party allies score about 7 percent and the Left Party about 8 percent.

Copyright 2005 by United Press International

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/article_1048884.php/Analysis__German_economy_expect_no_change

Analysis: German economy expect no change

By Stefan Burgdoerfer Sep 17, 2005, 23:29 GMT

WASHINGTON, DC, United States (UPI) -- Germany elects a new parliament Sunday. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's challenger Angela Merkel is leading in the polls. Traditionally, leaders of the economy favor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union because it propagates a less regulated labor market and lower taxes then Schroeder's Social Democratic Party.

Surprisingly, this election does not seem to affect the mood of the employers in the world's third largest economy, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook survey.

Merkel regards labor as the key for the urgently needed German economy boom. She steadily repeats her slogan 'Labor has right of way.' A current survey by Forsa, first published by RTL Friday, detects between 48 percent and 51 percent for the CDU and the Bavaria-only CSU. The Social Democrats reach between 32 percent and 34 percent. Forsa questioned 2,004 people; and carries a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.

The economy, however, does not seem to be very impressed by Merkel's expected victory. The Manpower survey shows that employers are keeping their wait-and-see mood.

When Schroeder ran for chancellor in 1998 he said his basic aim was to lower the jobless rate. Today it is the highest since the end of World War II. According to the German National Statistics Agency in August, 11.4 percent of the population was out of work. In eastern Germany, the rate rises to 18.2 percent. The German government is no longer able to pay for the much-loved welfare state that guaranteed unemployed people a secure life.

Schroeder's SPD already began reforms to rebuild the social security system in order to spend less money on unemployment, expecting positive effects on the labor market. Merkel's criticism is that his reforms did not go far enough. She believes that firms would offer more jobs if it would be easier to fire employees. Still, Manpower survey reports reserved hiring intentions.

'The return to a negative outlook is probably linked to the uncertainty of the election result and its consequences', said Thomas Reitz, managing director of Manpower Germany. 'Currently, I see widespread uncertainty amongst employers.'

The outlook varies from one sector of industry to another. Employers in the construction industry reported the least positive outlook, whereas the electricity, gas and water industry is expecting to hire the most laborers. The eastern, former communist part of the republic, again, has the least optimistic prospects.

Economists meanwhile reject the results based on this survey. 'Even if the CDU implements all pronounced reforms, it would take years until they take effect,' said Holger Schaefer from the Institute of German Economy. Only CDU's plan to decrease the time in which people earn unemployment could have an earlier effect.

'Unfortunately, the public opinion in Germany is worse then the actual situation,' said Klaus Brandner, SPD's labor and economic politics speaker. Observers from abroad would see the 'great advancement of the government,' he added, referring to a recent cover story of 'The Economist.' He concludes an improvement on the labor market would come from the new number of jobs offered.

Ronald Pofalla rejects that there is any improvement. 'The government produced the biggest chaos on German labor market in 55 years', said CDU's expert of economic politics in the German parliament, the Bundestag. But he is convinced that his party has the solution: 'In our country, two million unemployed people did not finish school.' In order to rise their chances of finding a new job, Germany should 'activate the lower loan sector,' Pofalla said. He promotes a loan model supposed to attract taking an easy, low paid job.

According to Emnid's survey, neither SPD nor CDU could build a government on their own. Even with their coalition partners, they would not have the requested majority.

Meanwhile Germans talk excitedly about a so-called 'grand coalition' of SPD and CDU. German employers consider such a coalition as the worst of all options.

'SPD is fighting for a 'go ahead,' the Union wants a re-launch,' said Ludolf von Wartenberg to the newspaper 'Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung.' The chief executive director of Germany's most powerful industry association, Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie, added: 'This does not fit together.'

Copyright 2005 by United Press International

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/article_1048828.php/Some_world_leaders_want_new_German_leader

Some world leaders want new German leader

Sep 17, 2005, 16:45 GMT

BERLIN, Germany (UPI) -- A European official has jumped into Germany's election campaign and publicly supported the opposition candidate.

Neelie Kroes, the European Union's competition commissioner, said Friday that she wants Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats to beat Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and the Social Democrats, The Australian reports.

Although they haven't been as publicly vocal as Kroes, both President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are rooting for Merkel.

Bush and Schroeder have tangled on many issues, especially the war in Iraq.

Blair hopes a change in Germany's regime will speed up European Union reforms.

Kroes said she wanted to see more female leaders in Europe.

Germany's election is Sunday.

Polls show Merkel's party with a slight lead, slim enough to force a coalition government that would reduce Merkel's power to enact the economic reform she wants.

Copyright 2005 by United Press International

Oooh! Exit polling data. ;')

Merkel looks to be leading German election
by David Rising
contributions by Vanessa Gera
Sun, Sep. 18, 2005
Polls for the parliamentary election suggested Merkel, leader of the conservative Christian Democrats, would become the nation's first female chancellor, although probably as head of a coalition government. Merkel's plan to patch up relations with Washington, which frayed after Schroeder's refusal to back the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, resonated with some voters as did her position that Turkey should not be allowed full membership in the 25-nation European Union... Stefan Deutscher, a 38-year-old business consultant voting in Berlin... blamed Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, for the high unemployment in Germany - currently at 11.4 percent... By midafternoon, nearly 42 percent of voters had cast ballots, government spokesman Johann Hahlen said. That was slightly less than at the same point during the 2002 election... Merkel's party already controls the upper house of parliament. If it gains control of the lower house, it will be able to move ahead with proposals to streamline the tax system, make it easier for small companies to fire people and loosen the rigid labor market in a bid to tackle unemployment and the troublingly low rates of economic growth... An estimated 500,000 of the 2.6 million people of Turkish origin in Germany are German citizens with the right to vote. Turks have traditionally supported the Social Democrats, though recently they have been angered by his social welfare and unemployment reforms, which have cut benefits.

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