Merkel, Poised to Win Vote, Awaits Germans' Word on Partner
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aQNAEwoinkjk&refer=germany
"Germany's last election in 2002 was the closest in the country's history. Both the Social Democrats and the CDU won 38.5 percent of the vote, with just 6,000 individual votes separating them."
I think Merkel will win by a good margin...we know how polls are skewed to the press' favorites.