Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Changed course and strengthened.
Holding steady direction and speed since 9PM update.
Talk on the weather forums is that this storm just might hang onto the coast and reach New England, or at least Cape Cod . . . NHS apparently reviewing new model runs that keep it un-expectedly west of previous projected tracks . . . might get even more interesting by the morning . . . that's it for me tonight . . .
Don't understand why the mods can't keep this thread in breaking news.
I guess they don't fish much.
It is going to go over the Pamlico Sound wich is extremly warm. It will absolutely intensify.
Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 36b
Statement as of 3:00 am EDT on September 15, 2005
...Ophelia eyewall over the Outer Banks...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect Surf City to the North
Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Surf City to Cape
Fear.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles
Light Virginia...including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point
Comfort.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within the
next 36 hr. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24
hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 3 am EDT...0700z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 34.6 north... longitude 76.3 west or about 15 miles
south-southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina and about 65 miles
southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph...and a slow
motion to the northeast is expected over the next 24 hours. While
the center of Ophelia is expected to parallel and pass a very short
distance offshore the North Carolina Outer Banks over the next 24
hours...the northwest eyewall is expected to remain over the Outer
Banks during this period.
Maximum sustained winds...primarily located offshore in the
southeastern portion of the eyewall...are near 85 mph...with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale...and is expected to remain a category one hurricane during
the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 982 mb...29.00 inches.
Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can
be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 9 to 11
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over portions of eastern North Carolina during the
next 24 hours...with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches
possible.
Repeating the 3 am EDT position...34.6 N... 76.3 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85
mph. Minimum central pressure...982 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Just got off the phone with my Mom in Newport, NC (about 5 miles west of Morehead City). They have a mess in the yard, but no other damage they know of. Never lost power. However, a lot of people in Morehead lost power and there was damage on the beach, apparently on the sound side. The Channel Marker restaurant, at the foot of the Morehead/Atlantic Beach bridge (beach side) flooded badly from the sound. Will post any other news as I receive it.
Here is the link for the Carteret County newspaper website - http://www.carteretnewstimes.com/
Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 37a
Statement as of 7:00 am EDT on September 15, 2005
...Ophelia not in a hurry to move away from the Outer Banks...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Surf City to the North
Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia...including
the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 7 am EDT...1100z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 34.8 north...longitude 75.9 west or about 35 miles
east-northeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina and about 45 miles
southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph and this motion is
expected to continue today. While the center of Ophelia is expected
to parallel and pass a very short distance offshore the North
Carolina Outer Banks over the next 12 hours...the northwest eyewall
is expected to remain over the Outer Banks during this period.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.
Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
A gradual weakening should begin later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles.
A reconnaissance plane estimated a minimum central pressure of 981
mb...28.97 inches.
Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can
be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 8 to 10
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina...
including the Outer Banks during the next 24 hours...with maximum
storm total amounts of 15 inches possible.
Repeating the 7 am EDT position...34.8 N... 75.9 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 981 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 9 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
bump
Fort Macon is best when viewed after hours, late at night after a few drinks and a dare from your buddies. It's amazing the number of apparitions one will encounter.... ;-)
Not much different than the 3am advisory.
I love the 7th anniversary of my 30th birthday. I'm about to have the 12th anniversary of my 30th birthday. I think I'll start using that.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin
A tropical wave along 44 west, south of 15 north is showing signs of organization. A large circulation is detected by satellite loops. Shear is light over most of this feature so it should continue to become better organized, perhaps becoming a depression within 12-24 hours. Most computer models are suggesting this wave should slowly organize into a tropical system within the next 2-3 days, so this wave will be closely monitored for development.
We are tracking several other tropical waves across the Atlantic basin, all moving west at between 10 and 20 mph. One wave was along 55 west, south of 17 north. Another wave was along 64 west and south of 23 north has well defined wind shift northeast of Puerto Rico; and it is causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms across that area. Models track this feature across south Florida Sunday and Monday and into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. Northwest shear will keep any development to a minimum over the next 24 hours. A third wave was along 94 west and south of 20 north. A new wave is along 20 west south of 17 north, at the trailing edge of an upper trough that contains dry air and Saharan dust; no development is expected in the near future - AccuWeather
Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 37b
Statement as of 9:00 am EDT on September 15, 2005
...Ophelia weakens slightly as it continues to skirt the North
Carolina Outer Banks...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Surf City to the North
Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia...including
the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 9 am EDT...1300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 34.8 north...longitude 75.7 west or about 30 miles
south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving erratically toward the east-northeast near 6 mph
...And a motion between northeast and east-northeast is expected
today. While the center of Ophelia is forecast to remain just
offshore and parallel the North Carolina Outer Banks... the
northern eyewall is expected to remain over the Outer Banks
during this period.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some slow weakening is expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 984 mb...29.06 inches.
Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can
be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 8 to 10
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina...
including the Outer Banks during the next 24 hours...with maximum
storm total amounts of 15 inches possible.
Repeating the 9 am EDT position...34.8 N... 75.7 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...
80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 984 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
Brother in Virginia. Son on L.I.
If you want to be able to locate it, use the reply box to make a comment (i.e. "bookmark"), then you will be able to locate it easily on your "my comments" page.
The son on L.I. may be in for more probs than bro in VA.....my forecast is calling for a 40% chance of showers and the sun is currently shining.
"Posted: September 14 2005 at 8:16pm | IP Logged Report Post Quote hunt4fish Talked to my neighbor on Front St. in Beaufort about 7pm,all of our docks are underwater,they have seen quite a few docks floating down Taylors crk.And the house beside them there yard is underwater.They said everything at the house looked ok and my boat was still where I had left it,but we still got some pounding left to take.Lets just hope it stays that way."
"Posted: September 14 2005 at 8:33pm | IP Logged Report Post Quote Charlie I talked with a neighbor on Oak Island about 8:15. He said that everything seems to be fine. There are limbs and leaves down but no serious damage. The boats, both his and mine, rode out the storm in their lifts without obvious damage. They had lots of sideways rain but never lost power at the west end along the waterway. Some parts of Oak Island and Southport lost power. There is a lot of water on the roads."
"Posted: September 15 2005 at 7:34am | IP Logged Report Post Quote Sadsack Bow2Him,,I went out this morning just to check on a friends house at Goose Creek,,I can't see very much visable damage around that area,,his house is fine,,just a lot of debris to clean up!
As far as Swansboro,,,I don't know,,quite a few cars coming from that direction this morning,,people going to work I suppose,,we weathered the storm pretty well here,, no trees down,,just small limbs and the normal stuff after a blow that has to be raked up!
Also I have no idea how the beaches faired over around Emerald Isle, they aren't letting anyone on the Island this morning as far as I know,,phone service is out here in the Bogue area as well, but thank God our power never went off all day and night!
Thats it for now,,take care all,,sure hope everyone is ok this morning, it was a rough 12 hours around here with Ophelia!! Could have been much worse if that storm had been stronger!!"
"Posted: September 15 2005 at 7:49am | IP Logged Report Post Quote Neusefisher My dad lives in Cedar Point. He said it got pretty bad there last night and coming from him it must have been serious. He is one to work through these things usually. At approximately 6:30 last night they already had one tree down in their front yard covering their driveway. Lots of debris and the docks on sound were completely covered."
"Posted: September 15 2005 at 8:01am | IP Logged Report Post Quote Sadsack Yeah Neusefisher, I live just down the road from Cedar Point, it was rough here,,
Around 8pm last night,,the full force of the storm hit this area,,and it was very rough until after mid-night-looks like most trees in our development are still up,,haven't seen any damage here,,as of yet-
Still raining and a little breezy,,and I did hear that water was across Hwy 24 last nite in the Cedar Point area-
We will see as damage reports come in as to how bad the beaches and other areas are!! Hopefully things will not be too bad but a storm is never good!!"
"HAVELOCK; HAD HEAVY WINDS AND A LOT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOST POWER ABOUT 10:00 PM AND DID NOT COME BACK ON TILL 4:00 AM..LOOKS LIKE WE MADE IT THROUGH PRETTY GOOD HERE.
MY HOUSE AT INDIAN BEACH MAY BE A DIFFRENT STORY, I LIVE ABOUT 2 BLOCKS FROM CRAB SHACK AND IT SOUNDS TO BE PRETTY MUCH LOST. MAYBE I'LL GET LUCKY BECAUSE I LIVE A LITTLE UP ON A HILL.. GETTING READY TO MAKE THE TRIP DOWN. GLAD I TOOK MY BOAT OUT OF THE WATER. ONE PERSON DID LEAVE HIS BOAT IN AND ITS GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ITS STILL THERE.. "
Pictures of Swansboro 6:30pm, Wed. night:
Webcam on Ocracoke is down, suggesting power outage.
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