Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin
A tropical wave along 44 west, south of 15 north is showing signs of organization. A large circulation is detected by satellite loops. Shear is light over most of this feature so it should continue to become better organized, perhaps becoming a depression within 12-24 hours. Most computer models are suggesting this wave should slowly organize into a tropical system within the next 2-3 days, so this wave will be closely monitored for development.
We are tracking several other tropical waves across the Atlantic basin, all moving west at between 10 and 20 mph. One wave was along 55 west, south of 17 north. Another wave was along 64 west and south of 23 north has well defined wind shift northeast of Puerto Rico; and it is causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms across that area. Models track this feature across south Florida Sunday and Monday and into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. Northwest shear will keep any development to a minimum over the next 24 hours. A third wave was along 94 west and south of 20 north. A new wave is along 20 west south of 17 north, at the trailing edge of an upper trough that contains dry air and Saharan dust; no development is expected in the near future - AccuWeather
Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 37b
Statement as of 9:00 am EDT on September 15, 2005
...Ophelia weakens slightly as it continues to skirt the North
Carolina Outer Banks...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Surf City to the North
Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia...including
the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 9 am EDT...1300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 34.8 north...longitude 75.7 west or about 30 miles
south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving erratically toward the east-northeast near 6 mph
...And a motion between northeast and east-northeast is expected
today. While the center of Ophelia is forecast to remain just
offshore and parallel the North Carolina Outer Banks... the
northern eyewall is expected to remain over the Outer Banks
during this period.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some slow weakening is expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 984 mb...29.06 inches.
Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can
be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 8 to 10
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina...
including the Outer Banks during the next 24 hours...with maximum
storm total amounts of 15 inches possible.
Repeating the 9 am EDT position...34.8 N... 75.7 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...
80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 984 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$