It is going to go over the Pamlico Sound wich is extremly warm. It will absolutely intensify.
Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 36b
Statement as of 3:00 am EDT on September 15, 2005
...Ophelia eyewall over the Outer Banks...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect Surf City to the North
Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Surf City to Cape
Fear.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles
Light Virginia...including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point
Comfort.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within the
next 36 hr. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24
hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 3 am EDT...0700z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 34.6 north... longitude 76.3 west or about 15 miles
south-southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina and about 65 miles
southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph...and a slow
motion to the northeast is expected over the next 24 hours. While
the center of Ophelia is expected to parallel and pass a very short
distance offshore the North Carolina Outer Banks over the next 24
hours...the northwest eyewall is expected to remain over the Outer
Banks during this period.
Maximum sustained winds...primarily located offshore in the
southeastern portion of the eyewall...are near 85 mph...with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale...and is expected to remain a category one hurricane during
the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 982 mb...29.00 inches.
Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can
be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 9 to 11
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over portions of eastern North Carolina during the
next 24 hours...with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches
possible.
Repeating the 3 am EDT position...34.6 N... 76.3 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85
mph. Minimum central pressure...982 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$