New Orleans Death Toll 10,000? I don't think so.

Self | September 6, 2005 | Vanity

[BillCompton]

I have not seen any video of structures reduced to match sticks in the city of New Orleans. There was damage, to be sure, but not like the environs east of there. So how did the supposed 10,000 die? Storm runoff from the 5 inches of rain or so, no doubt flooded parts of the city. But I doubt that killed anyone. Wind might have killed a handfull, though normally it does not kill many at all. Hurricane Andrew blew down many thousands of homes, but only killed a total of 26 people. So we are left with the flood to kill all the 10,000 people.

The breach of the levees happened slowly and long after the winds had subsided. It might be true that in the few hundred yards around the breach itself, a strong current probably existed. Perhaps people were swept to their deaths in the areas immediately proximate to the breach. But the people were supposed to be gone, and many had gone. I am willing to accept that some people directly near the breaches were drowned, but it would not surprise me if that were not the case.

In the rest of the city, the water come up SLOWLY. It took well over a day for the water to come up 10 feet. Now, suppose you have survived the wind storm (as 99.99% surely did) and you notice that the standing water on your street is not going away. A few hours later, it seems to be rising. A few hours later, no doubt about it, the water is rising and it is going to come into the house. Hours later, it is apparent the water is going to keep rising. Who in the world is going to climb into the attic unless you know that you can get out should the water rise higher? This is not a split second decision. This is a decision that had to be at least 12 hours in the making. Even if you climb into the attic, which would be hot as heck, would you sit there hour after hour without the realizing you are slowly becoming trapped? I am not saying it didn't happen once, but I am saying it didn't happen hundreds of times. No. Any ambulatory person would swim or float to someplace they could climb up to. A few healthy people might drown, but not many at all. Now, there were, no doubt, helpless people (elderly primarily) who probably did drown simply because they were too feeble to swim to safety. This, I believe, will account for the largest number of deaths.

It is also probable that some people died from violence. I know a policeman was shot, but was alive the last I saw. I am sure a few people have been killed, but I don't recall seeing any confirmed reports of it. I have also seen reports of people in the hospitals dying. Likewise, dozens have died from exposure to the heat, mostly the very young or the very old.

Also, I am sure that a very few may die of thirst.

Last I heard, there were 56 confirmed dead. The Mayor is hysterically predicting there will be 10,000, which is repeated over and over in the media, so that is the number that people are using to evaluate the current situation in New Orleans. My prediction is that a total of less that 250 will have died in New Orleans. And of all the coastal areas affected by the hurricane winds and tidal surge, New Orleans will be the place of fewest casualties.

[GOP_Proud]

I wonder how many of those bodies floating around came from the crypts I saw opened up?

[Sacajaweau]

Any STATE officials that didn't ORDER AND ASSIST in the evacuation of nursing homes and hospitals should be tried for murder.

[mewzilla]

State and local. Negligent homicide on a horrific scale.

[BillCompton]

...calling for the heads of the FEMA and DHS secretaries on a pike.

That might make future officials try harder. Look. No one is saying Brown and Chertoff have done a good job. I am just concerned we are being bullied into misallocating resources. I cannot understand the convention center and superdome things. But I kind of feel like I did with the OJ trial. I said to myself at the beginning of the trial "He is going to get off." and I was okay with that. Our system is not perfect. But, then I got involved in the trial and was heartbroken and outraged by the end. Similarly, I watched those people cheerfully waiting for hours to get into the Superdome thinking "man, that is a mistake, but hey, it serves them right for waiting until the last minute." Then, I felt heartbroken and outrage when I was right.

[kingu]

The figure of 10 thousand was my initial estimate. Now I think it is too low.

People, especially Americans, are notoriously hard to kill. Plaquemines parish.. They say 95% evacuated, looking at the NOAA overhead images it is hard to believe that anyone lived through that, but survivors still made it out. Five stayed and survived on Grand Isle, though the message requesting help is heartbreaking to see.

Sometimes I think that you're right, and it'll be far higher, sometimes I think it'll be far lower. In New Orleans, I don't expect the final death toll to be as great as ten thousand, but overall - so hard to say. So hard to imagine.. Then again, it is virtually impossible for me to imagine a damage area of 92,000 square miles, greater than the land size of England, hit by a storm with a core large enough to stretch from San Diego to Bakersfield.

A rather depressing topic, to be sure, but I'll be thankful for every life saved, and mournful of every life lost.

[elli1]

And vanities are frowned upon here. Especially inane speculation vanities.

This is a good thread. We're discussing the 'inane speculation' being spoonfed by the media.

[reg45]

I have seen no floating bodies

Gators got em.

[kittymyrib]

They must be going by the inflated Democrat voter registration rolls. We might find far fewer people lived in NO than voted for Kerry last fall.

[Sacajaweau]

Yes, you're right. STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. I'm betting that these officials actually sat down and decided to :Let the Federal Government FUND THIS and USE THEIR MANPOWER. We don't have to do a thing or spend a dime. I have no doubt that that was the decision because that's what I saw.

[reg45]

If they use the voter registration rolls to determine the missing persons, there were 100,000 people missing from NO before the storm...

For all we know, the 100,000 were dead and voting at the last election - long before the flood. After it is a 'Rat controlled city.

[BillCompton]

People, especially Americans, are notoriously hard to kill. Plaquemines parish..

I agree. How anyone could have lived who stayed there is beyond me. This is what Andrew was like. How only 26 people died is beyond me also. But, water is clearly more dangerous than wind. I am fearful of what the toll will be in Mississippi and Alabama.

[elli1]

I honestly think it will be under 1000 in NO and under 2000 overall.....

For some reason, 1376 total keeps popping into my head.

10,000 Dead seems to be a Magic Number that gets pulled out of butts every time some potentially deadly event happens. I keep remembering Ross Perot and his '10,000 Bodybags' story from the first Gulf War. Noticed a couple of days ago that the '10,000 Bodybags' story was back. Conclusion I have reached is that there must be one helluva' price break on buying a 10,000 count lot of bodybags.

[oh8eleven]

I have a nose for death.
What the heck does that mean?

[wolfcreek]

"I'd bet around 5,000 to 10,000. Lot's of people trapped in attics."

It is pretty sick doing this " death lotto". There will be no winners, only losers.
Reports, early on, suggested people stored axes and other devises in there attics to chop their way out. If this is true, many may not have had the time to do so.
I suspect, that even though these people were surrounded by water, few knew how to swim.

[cajungirl]

It means that in natural disaster, I have a sense about what the toll is going to be. I guess I expressed in wrong but that is what I mean. Are you offended? Every disaster I have seen I have an estimate of how many are going to be lost and I am very close to final estimates. Happened in the tsunami. I kept saying that what the press was estimating was way low.

I saw the guys setting up the field morgue in St Gabriel and it is huge. He said they were planning on upwards of five thousand bodies. This was on local tv.

I am concerned about those houses under water. People went up to attics in those houses. And there are alot of old andn infirm in the people I see getting out. Means to me that there are alot of older and infirm in those houses.

[maica]

Last night on 60 minutes (grrr) Nagin said 50,000 were unaccounted for in N.O. alone

$$$$$

All voters! I'm sure.

[Las Vegas Dave]

For all we know, the 100,000 were dead and voting at the last election - long before the flood. After it is a 'Rat controlled city.

On another thread some freeper wrote, "The DemocRATS got them all to the polls on polls on election day, why didn't the DemocRATS drive them out of the city?"

[oh8eleven]

I have a sense about what the toll is going to be.
I think that's a better description than, "I have a nose for death." That sounds like you wear a leash.

[cajungirl]

I don't think it is ghoulish.

If it seems that way to you, pass on to another thread.

And I have family and friends here too.

This happens at all natural and man made disasters.

[Non-Sequitur]

And of all the coastal areas affected by the hurricane winds and tidal surge, New Orleans will be the place of fewest casualties.

Mobile's reporting 2 dead. New Orelans is already way over that so looks like you're wrong.