Skip to comments.New Orleans Death Toll 10,000? I don't think so.
Posted on 09/06/2005 2:33:59 AM PDT by BillCompton
I have not seen any video of structures reduced to match sticks in the city of New Orleans. There was damage, to be sure, but not like the environs east of there. So how did the supposed 10,000 die? Storm runoff from the 5 inches of rain or so, no doubt flooded parts of the city. But I doubt that killed anyone. Wind might have killed a handfull, though normally it does not kill many at all. Hurricane Andrew blew down many thousands of homes, but only killed a total of 26 people. So we are left with the flood to kill all the 10,000 people.
The breach of the levees happened slowly and long after the winds had subsided. It might be true that in the few hundred yards around the breach itself, a strong current probably existed. Perhaps people were swept to their deaths in the areas immediately proximate to the breach. But the people were supposed to be gone, and many had gone. I am willing to accept that some people directly near the breaches were drowned, but it would not surprise me if that were not the case.
In the rest of the city, the water come up SLOWLY. It took well over a day for the water to come up 10 feet. Now, suppose you have survived the wind storm (as 99.99% surely did) and you notice that the standing water on your street is not going away. A few hours later, it seems to be rising. A few hours later, no doubt about it, the water is rising and it is going to come into the house. Hours later, it is apparent the water is going to keep rising. Who in the world is going to climb into the attic unless you know that you can get out should the water rise higher? This is not a split second decision. This is a decision that had to be at least 12 hours in the making. Even if you climb into the attic, which would be hot as heck, would you sit there hour after hour without the realizing you are slowly becoming trapped? I am not saying it didn't happen once, but I am saying it didn't happen hundreds of times. No. Any ambulatory person would swim or float to someplace they could climb up to. A few healthy people might drown, but not many at all. Now, there were, no doubt, helpless people (elderly primarily) who probably did drown simply because they were too feeble to swim to safety. This, I believe, will account for the largest number of deaths.
It is also probable that some people died from violence. I know a policeman was shot, but was alive the last I saw. I am sure a few people have been killed, but I don't recall seeing any confirmed reports of it. I have also seen reports of people in the hospitals dying. Likewise, dozens have died from exposure to the heat, mostly the very young or the very old.
Also, I am sure that a very few may die of thirst.
Last I heard, there were 56 confirmed dead. The Mayor is hysterically predicting there will be 10,000, which is repeated over and over in the media, so that is the number that people are using to evaluate the current situation in New Orleans. My prediction is that a total of less that 250 will have died in New Orleans. And of all the coastal areas affected by the hurricane winds and tidal surge, New Orleans will be the place of fewest casualties.
Agreed. Let's hope it is less.
Storm killed in the hundreds in mississippi from the storm surge, storm surge was brutal in parts of southeastern louisiana.
In New Orleans parish on tuesday some of the flooding was attack level so people could have drowned. It was night time too which didn't help.
Some elderly disabled died at the superdome and convention center. There have been a lot of reports of floating bodies probably from the initial flooding.
I would think the number would be less than 9/11 but you know the state officials in louisiana will be counting every death even if they just died from old age to bring the number higher.
It's really hard to assess what is true and what isn't. It's like the media is sitting on any good news. Disgusting.
I agree that the 10,000 number is a bit far-fetched. I'd be suprised if the number of dead in New Orleans surpassed 500.
The Mayor is hysterically predicting there will be 10,000, which is repeated over and over in the media
Well, if there were 100,000 people that stayed, 4 people die every day normally. (This assumes that people live on average for 27,375 days).
It's going to go over the 250 mark , sad to say. There is a report of one nursing home where 80 died.
Last night on 60 minutes (grrr) Nagin said 50,000 were unaccounted for in N.O. alone. Whether or not that figure has been lowered since; not sure. Hopefull it is much lower and many more will be found to be alive.
Well, you are in for a big surprise.
It's just that, hysteria hoping to feed upon itself, to gain national sympathy for himself (who by all accounts of his own words is an incometent simp) and stoke nationwide hatred of Bush.
350,000 homes were flooded in N.O. Accounts from suvivors reported water rising to roof level in a few minutes barely having a chance to exit the house with some not making it. Other parts of town the water did rise slowly. Deathcount sadly will be very high just in N.O. and many thousands more in Mississippi.
Speculation via a vanity is a waste of time.
That was a great post - one I hope is true. I was thinking the same thing myself today, and you've articulated it to a tee. The only zones of large amounts of dead people should be in the 9th ward which I think did have heavy flooding during the hurricane, and areas immediately adjacent to where breaks occurred, and where the water got deep fast. Most houses in NOLA, even in poorer areas - are built with walkways and basements that position the 1st floor several feet above street level. Even if it began flooding, most people should have had some time to do something other than sit and wait to drown. The idea of climbing into your 105 degree attic and sitting there for days is likewise a bit bizarro to me - I mean why wouldn't you at least try swimming out of there to climb on the roof? Sitting and waiting for help to hack through your roof or wade through your flooded house is the last thing most people would do.
I hope we are right - and the toll ends up in the hundreds and not thousands.
Last I heard, it was 71 in the city of New Orleans. I pray that it is as few as possible.
I'll say 17,000.
Does the Mayor of NOLA get to retire the Yasser Arafat Jenin Massacre Award for Incendiary Hyperbole if it comes in under 1,000?
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