Posted on 09/06/2005 2:33:59 AM PDT by BillCompton
I have not seen any video of structures reduced to match sticks in the city of New Orleans. There was damage, to be sure, but not like the environs east of there. So how did the supposed 10,000 die? Storm runoff from the 5 inches of rain or so, no doubt flooded parts of the city. But I doubt that killed anyone. Wind might have killed a handfull, though normally it does not kill many at all. Hurricane Andrew blew down many thousands of homes, but only killed a total of 26 people. So we are left with the flood to kill all the 10,000 people.
The breach of the levees happened slowly and long after the winds had subsided. It might be true that in the few hundred yards around the breach itself, a strong current probably existed. Perhaps people were swept to their deaths in the areas immediately proximate to the breach. But the people were supposed to be gone, and many had gone. I am willing to accept that some people directly near the breaches were drowned, but it would not surprise me if that were not the case.
In the rest of the city, the water come up SLOWLY. It took well over a day for the water to come up 10 feet. Now, suppose you have survived the wind storm (as 99.99% surely did) and you notice that the standing water on your street is not going away. A few hours later, it seems to be rising. A few hours later, no doubt about it, the water is rising and it is going to come into the house. Hours later, it is apparent the water is going to keep rising. Who in the world is going to climb into the attic unless you know that you can get out should the water rise higher? This is not a split second decision. This is a decision that had to be at least 12 hours in the making. Even if you climb into the attic, which would be hot as heck, would you sit there hour after hour without the realizing you are slowly becoming trapped? I am not saying it didn't happen once, but I am saying it didn't happen hundreds of times. No. Any ambulatory person would swim or float to someplace they could climb up to. A few healthy people might drown, but not many at all. Now, there were, no doubt, helpless people (elderly primarily) who probably did drown simply because they were too feeble to swim to safety. This, I believe, will account for the largest number of deaths.
It is also probable that some people died from violence. I know a policeman was shot, but was alive the last I saw. I am sure a few people have been killed, but I don't recall seeing any confirmed reports of it. I have also seen reports of people in the hospitals dying. Likewise, dozens have died from exposure to the heat, mostly the very young or the very old.
Also, I am sure that a very few may die of thirst.
Last I heard, there were 56 confirmed dead. The Mayor is hysterically predicting there will be 10,000, which is repeated over and over in the media, so that is the number that people are using to evaluate the current situation in New Orleans. My prediction is that a total of less that 250 will have died in New Orleans. And of all the coastal areas affected by the hurricane winds and tidal surge, New Orleans will be the place of fewest casualties.
7,500+
And also predicting CIA hit teams are being dispatched to take him out. NUTJOB! FLOOD-INDUCED DELUSION!
Maybe we should call it 'pulling a Nagin'.
At least Bill has evidenced some thought on his estimate. Nagin is still rhetorically flailing.
Speculating on the final tally of dead, hoping for your number to be called, is just plain creepy. It's akin to the left-winged dingbats hoping for 3,000 dead American soldiers in Iraq for justification of a failed Presidency.
That aside, truth and speculation are not even related. Wait until the count is finalized, come back and we can discuss the results given by people there on the ground that get paid to deal in reality not speculation.
The count in New Orleans according to CNN is 71 at the moment.
How many of those are murders?
I've thought the same thing. I believe it is very irresponsible (but not surprising) for the mayor to just throw a number out based on nothing. This man just keeps showing what a true failure he is.
The figure of 10 thousand was my initial estimate. Now I think it is too low.
Initially my death estimates for the tsunami were very close to what they ended up being.
I have a nose for death.
I am guessing 10 to 20 thousand with final figures not known every
I don't know how they're coming up with the figure...my husband agrees with you that it will be far less than 10,000.
However, if you consider that many of the nursing homes were abandoned by the staff and now they are finding older people who have died, the people from hospitals that died during or after evacuation, the people that died in the airport after they were evacuated, etc. they may reach into the thousands.
I think the casualty figures will include all those that died in any storm related situation, like evacuation, traffic accidents, etc.
Also, to me it's unclear if they'll list deaths by individual parishes or clump the death toll from all the parishes together.
I did read a first hand count of some guy that had gone back into town to get his stuff and had seen 15 floating bodies and heard accounts on TV of people that lived close to the 17th Street levee break, and in their case flooding was quick and dramatic and people drowned.
Totally!!
Ted Koppel's grilling of Michael Brown of FEMA reached a new low last night when Ted said something to the effect of, "How could you not know what was happening at the Super Dome? Don't you watch television?"
My response to Ted would have been, " I sure do Ted. I saw television crew after television crew, day after day, make there way to the Super Dome to report on the people's plight. But, you know what Ted, I didn't see a single TV person, or anyone with them bring in any supplies. I didn't see a single TV person do anything about the suffering. I didn't see a single TV person offer one person a drink of water. Why is that Ted? Don't they watch television? Didn't they know they were heading into an area that needed water and food? It seems that television reporting people have no sense of community. How else could you explain standing by and reporting on a problem without attempting to help?"
I saw several such interviews of waters rising quickly. Something else you must keep in mind are the elderly, ill, and overweight people who are bare ambulatory in the best of conditions and hardly able to climb to escape even slowly rising waters waiting until it was too late to make their move. Many would be trapped in staircases or the highest possoble level in their house when the water rose above their heads. A satellite technician who owned a website I frequent was found (with his family) drowned in their house in the stairway to their attic. The attic door was jammed. The number of houses flooded is mindboggling.
Probably considerably more than 4 per day out of the population that stayed. (Higher % of aged, ill, handicapped, hospitalized in that population.) Population of 1.3 million--13 X 4 = 52 x 80% = 41.6 per day x 'Y'. Y = number of days. 5 days, around 200 people would have died 'normally' in the population that stayed in NO. Disclaimer: This is a guesstimate!
He's still not over quitting his $400K day-job to be mayor of a swamp.
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