Posted on 09/06/2005 2:33:59 AM PDT by BillCompton
I have not seen any video of structures reduced to match sticks in the city of New Orleans. There was damage, to be sure, but not like the environs east of there. So how did the supposed 10,000 die? Storm runoff from the 5 inches of rain or so, no doubt flooded parts of the city. But I doubt that killed anyone. Wind might have killed a handfull, though normally it does not kill many at all. Hurricane Andrew blew down many thousands of homes, but only killed a total of 26 people. So we are left with the flood to kill all the 10,000 people.
The breach of the levees happened slowly and long after the winds had subsided. It might be true that in the few hundred yards around the breach itself, a strong current probably existed. Perhaps people were swept to their deaths in the areas immediately proximate to the breach. But the people were supposed to be gone, and many had gone. I am willing to accept that some people directly near the breaches were drowned, but it would not surprise me if that were not the case.
In the rest of the city, the water come up SLOWLY. It took well over a day for the water to come up 10 feet. Now, suppose you have survived the wind storm (as 99.99% surely did) and you notice that the standing water on your street is not going away. A few hours later, it seems to be rising. A few hours later, no doubt about it, the water is rising and it is going to come into the house. Hours later, it is apparent the water is going to keep rising. Who in the world is going to climb into the attic unless you know that you can get out should the water rise higher? This is not a split second decision. This is a decision that had to be at least 12 hours in the making. Even if you climb into the attic, which would be hot as heck, would you sit there hour after hour without the realizing you are slowly becoming trapped? I am not saying it didn't happen once, but I am saying it didn't happen hundreds of times. No. Any ambulatory person would swim or float to someplace they could climb up to. A few healthy people might drown, but not many at all. Now, there were, no doubt, helpless people (elderly primarily) who probably did drown simply because they were too feeble to swim to safety. This, I believe, will account for the largest number of deaths.
It is also probable that some people died from violence. I know a policeman was shot, but was alive the last I saw. I am sure a few people have been killed, but I don't recall seeing any confirmed reports of it. I have also seen reports of people in the hospitals dying. Likewise, dozens have died from exposure to the heat, mostly the very young or the very old.
Also, I am sure that a very few may die of thirst.
Last I heard, there were 56 confirmed dead. The Mayor is hysterically predicting there will be 10,000, which is repeated over and over in the media, so that is the number that people are using to evaluate the current situation in New Orleans. My prediction is that a total of less that 250 will have died in New Orleans. And of all the coastal areas affected by the hurricane winds and tidal surge, New Orleans will be the place of fewest casualties.
Bill...I have family there...One lost everything..One had moderate damage...They are not speculating.
I thought Bill's analysis was reasonably good. Why don't you "sit down and shut up"?? If you don't like it, don't read it.
I'll put the number at 3,465 1/2. 3,460 most unfortunate souls and another 5 1/2 zombies. The latter being a quadraplegic. Sorry about the shamefull humor, but I don't think I can bear much more of this.
Thank you for your civility.
This is also a board for people to share thoughts with people - often speculation is what it's all about. This particular vanity was quite welcome if you ask me, as evidenced by how many people such as yourself have posted on this thread.
I suppose ghoulish speculation on death statistics is of interest to some as evidenced here, especially since the dying is still going on.
Cogent analysis..I feel the number will be in the thousands. NOLA has a huge homeless underclass..BTW..you are absolutely correct that initial predictions ALWAYS are way off. In the day or so after 9/11, we had endless talk of 30,000 dead..
And this surprises you? You realize people also flock to horror movies like the Texas Chainsaw Massacre - are you shocked by that as well?
Speculating about the numbers is just another way to try and wrap your brain around this tragedy - it doesn't make a person ghoulish. As someone already said, if you don't like what people have to say here - why stick around just to criticize?
The mayor is hysterical.
That being said, I don't know whether his 10,000 figure includes surrounding parishes.
I dunno, there are 131 Britons missing alone. Its now well over a week since they were last heard of.
You'd have though that they would have had the means to contact their loved ones by now, by some means. I wonder what percentage of the people in the area were British ? can't be more than one or two percent i'm sure.
I honestly think it will be under 1000 in NO and under 2000 overall....
You make a good case, and I've revised my thinking on the death toll. That will be one hell of a call if you're right.
I heard the last half hour of the Jerry Doyle radio show earlier (a guest host who's name escapes me) calling for the heads of the FEMA and DHS secretaries on a pike. Jerry Doyle is pretty mainstream, I agree with alot of what he says, but his guest host launched into left-winged lunacy.
Ted said something to the effect of, "How could you not know what was happening at the Super Dome? Don't you watch television?"
Did Ted say 'SuperDome'? If so, Ted is confused because Brown said he didn't know what was going on at the Convention Center.
Busy people do NOT have time to watch television. Time after time, I have noticed that reporters/ television commentators are rather poorly informed in the midst of a big, rapidly evolving story. Reason? They don't have time to watch television. Want to know what's being reported? Ask a pajama person. And in the case of the Convention Center story, I noticed that story often got confused with the SuperDome story among rank & file pajamahadeen.
The 'people at the Convention Center story' is something that should have been reported to FEMA by state & local NO officials. It was their job, their responsiblity to know and report what they knew to FEMA.
I've noticed that of reporters on-scene.
"there are 131 Britons missing alone. Its now well over a week since they were last heard of. "
I haven't heard this. Have a link to an article?
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