Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin conceded that as many as 100,000 inner-city residents didn't have the means to leave and an untold number of tourists were stranded by the closing of the airport. At this hour, people are still filing into the Superdome after security screening for weapons and contraband. National Guard have brought in 360,000 MRE (meals ready to eat) to feed the estimated 30,000 storm refugees in the Superdome.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[BurbankKarl]

FNC just said NO may shut down the power grid.

[Skywarner]

WWL News anchor, while reading the Fred Lyons (?) statement, almost lost it when he read (to paraphrase) "...that New Orleans may never be the same again."

[Age of Reason]

All of this coverage is annoying. I want to know what the latest is with the Natalee Holloway and Olivia Newton John boyfriend dissapearences

OMG--are you saying they're in NO?

[JeffAtlanta]

Just watched some college students on FNC at the Super Dome. They seem to be smiling, enjoying this like it was a like cutting class...

What do you want them to do? They did not have cars, could not afford an airline ticket and are not old enough to rent a car - they are just making the best out of a bad situation?

Would you feel better if they spread panic and starting yelling "there is no hope - we're all going to die!!!" ?

[Miss Marple]

I would just like to mention that for decades we have heard about how the democrats are the party for the poor people. Look at how well they have taken care of the poor in New Orleans! No way to get them out of town, send them to the Superdome, no help for nursing homes or hospital patients; meanwhile...the mayor had HIS family evacuated by helicopter!

I am totally disgusted. People will die because of this idiot mayor!!!

[LibFreeOrDie]

From what I heard on WWL-TV in NOLA, they close the causeway and bridges when the wind hits ~39mph.

[Maigrey]

I plan on doing such tomorrow. My company has a match on any charity donations, so I want them to do such.

[bonfire]

My family in Slidell live by the Pearl. They left for Houston yesterday. Sure hope their home is still there when they get back. My aunt is almost blind and uncle has diabetes.

I'll keep your family in my prayers too.

[MplsSteve]

I haven't seen any webcams...but yes, it appears that way.

I'm not sure what I'd do at this moment if I were on the road. Hope that I can get just a few more miles west or north - or return to home and ride it out.

I guess it would depend on where I lived in the NO area.

[jeffers]

The 2200 Forecast Discussion shows the storm still offshore on the +12 hour plot, by my figuring, at ten am tomorrow.

What's all this talk of it coming onshore at 6 am?

[onyx]

I would hope all people have left. I can't imagine up and leaving one's home, but I can't imagine staying either.

[Sidebar Moderator]

How dare you not figure out by my screen name that I'm a girl.

[PhiKapMom]

I can guarantee you it would freak me out. I-10 over that one area gives me the creeps.

[bonfire]

Can't remember who, but some poster who knew what he was talking about said that there is no time for eyewall replacement.

[CindyDawg]

I'm not making excuses for your mayor but this IMO is where they have to show leadership and earn those big bucks. Sometimes, regardless of their decision they get in trouble though. I remember the mayor that evacuated Galveston once. The storm curved instead of directly hitting. People actually got mad at him for erring on the side of caution. Go figure.

[Mr.Atos]

In building design, wind loads are considered similar to earthquake loads in the calculation of lateral forces for resistance. Most people realize that a building is designed to withstand vertical gravitional forces. It is built to stand up. But, a building is also design like a cantilevered beam meant to resist lateral forces, such as wind and vibration. When a tower is designed, the maximum sustained wind taken from historic data assembled with charts provided in the applicable building code, is applied across the face of the building to calculate it overturning moment. The building is then designed structurally to resist that moment. The wind speeds accompanying Katrina could be in excess of the maximum known winds for the towers designed in New Orleans. The lateral forces presented by this storm could very well be in excess of the resisting moments of these buildings. Add to that the additional force of waves battering the lower floors and the danger is exponentially worse.

Understand this. In structural design for lateral loads in modern buildings, maximum wind loading is never, repeat never, considered in conjuntion with a seismic event. The odds are so great against the possibility that it is simple not required. Combine sustained winds in excess of the maximum design load, combined with lateral wave loads stiking the buildig in similar fashion to a seismic event, and there is a very real possibility of building collapse during this storm... ESPECIALLY highrises. Catastrophic building failure is a very real possiblity.

[pax_et_bonum]

Call it my black dog mood, but I feel helpless as if watching two trains speeding head on at each other and not being able to do anything...

That describes the feeling in the pit of my stomach pretty well.

(Good to see you here!)

[JustaCowgirl]

Then, this causeway would totally freak you out!

Yes it would. I've been over lots of water, have a normal fear of it, and I still have a very vivid memory of the Pontchartrain causeway. I can't even imagine being stuck on it with a hurricane coming. What a nightmare.

[JeffAtlanta]

I agree with you. He couldn't even read the order.

Yet we deride liberals when they say the same thing about Bush. I don't know anything about the guy's politics but from what I've seen from his announcements, he has done a good job.